Sunday, September 11, 2016

THE WEEK AHEAD

Macroeconomic data to dictate trend


Macroeconomic data, progress of monsoon rains, trend in global markets, investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs), the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement will dictate trend on the bourses in a truncated week ahead. The stock market will remain close on Tuesday, 13 September 2016 on account of Bakri Id.

On macro front, the stock market on Monday, 12 September 2016, will react to the industrial output data for July 2016, which is scheduled for announcement after market hours on Friday, 9 September 2016. Industrial production expanded 2.1% in June 2016 over June 2015.

The government will announce monthly inflation data based on consumer price index (CPI) for August 2016 on Tuesday, 13 September 2016, when stock market remains closed for a holiday. CPI accelerated to 6.07% in July 2016 from 5.77% in June 2016. The government will announce monthly inflation data based on wholesale price index (WPI) for August 2016 on Wednesday, 14 September 2016. WPI accelerated to 3.55% in July 2016 from 1.62% in June 2016.

The performance of the monsoon rains will be monitored. In its monsoon update issued on Thursday, 8 September 2016, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that for the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this year's monsoon so far (till 8 September 2016) was 4% below the long period average (LPA).

Among corporate news, Tata Steel announces Q1 result on Monday, 12 September 2016. Coal India announces Q1 result on Tuesday, 13 September 2016.

PSU OMCs will be in focus as these companies will undertake next fuel price revision during the middle of this month. PSU OMCs undertake fuel price review during the middle and at the end of every month based on the trend in international oil market in the previous fortnight.

Meanwhile, the initial public offer (IPO) of L&T Technology Services opens for bidding on Monday, 12 September 2016 and closes on Thursday, 15 September 2016. The price band for the IPO has been fixed at Rs 850-860 per share. The IPO comprises of an offer for sale of 1.04 crore shares by engineering and construction major L&T. L&T Technology Services will not receive any funds from the IPO. L&T currently owns 100% stake in L&T Technology Services. Its holding will fall to 89.77% after the IPO. The offer would constitute 10.2% of post-offer paid-up equity share capital of the company. L&T Technology Services provides Engineering, Research and Development (ER&D) services to manufacturing, technology and process engineering companies, to help them develop and build products, processes and infrastructure required to deliver products and services to their end customers.

GNA Axles is coming up with an initial public offer (IPO) of 63 lakh shares of face value of Rs 10 each. The issue will open on Wednesday, 14 September 2016 and closes on Friday, 16 September 2016. The price band for the IPO has been fixed at Rs 205 to Rs 207 per share. GNA Axles is into manufacturing of rear axle shafts used in on-highway and off-highway vehicular segments in India.

On global front, the Bank of England will announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday, 15 September 2016. Bank of England had cut bank rate by 25 basis points to 0.25% and introduced a package of measures designed to provide additional monetary stimulus in its last meet in August.

In US, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhart will deliver speech to NABE conference, in Atlanta on Monday, 12 September 2016. Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari will speak on Monday, 12 September 2016 at St. Paul BOMA's Thought Leader Seminar and St. Paul Port Authority's Expert's Forum with audience Q&A in Saint Paul, Minnesota. Data on industrial production for August showing how much factories, mines and utilities produced in that month will be released on Thursday, 15 September 2016. Data on retail sales for August will also be announced on Thursday, 15 September 2016.

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