Tuesday, August 30, 2016

NIFTY VIEW

Trend:



NIFTY 50 seems to be in uptrend. Bullish

NIFTY 50 is trading near the highs of last 1 year. 

In the medium term the prices have been in Uptrend.

Longer to medium Term Trend is Up.

Japanese candlestick analysis:



NIFTY 50 is trading near the Top of the day's range. 

Higher High and Higher Low compared to previous day. Bullish

Day's Range: 8642.25 ~ 8750.60

NIFTY 50 had a gap-up opening with gap now acting as support area between 8622.00 ~ 8642.25

NIFTY 50 opened at 8646.75 compared to previous close of 8607.45



Day's pivot point levels (support and resistance):


NIFTY 50 is trading Above the pivot. 

Pivot Point 8,712.40

Pivot Point Resistance at 8,782.55(R1) --> 8,820.75(R2) --> 8,929.10(R3) --> 9,037.45(R4)

Pivot Point Supports at 8,674.20(S1) --> 8,604.05(S2) --> 8,495.70(S3) --> 8,387.35(S4)

*pivot points are calculated based on the closing data of 2016-08-30
Volume and moving average analysis:


20-Day SMA: 8,633.3

20-Day average volume: 182,726,950

20-Day Range: 8,518.2 ~ 8,750.6

NIFTY 50 has average daily volume of 182,726,950 compared to today's volume of 154,818,000. It is currently trading Above 20 day simple moving average. 

Intraday Bullish!!!



50-Day SMA: 8,503.0

50-Day average volume: 179,543,300

50-Day Range: 7,927.1 ~ 8,750.6

Short Term Trend is Up!!!



NIFTY 50 has support near the gap up area between today's low and previous high 8622.00 ~ 8642.25 and further near 8607.45

8642.25 to act as intraday support.

52-week range:


52 Week Range: 6825.80 ~ 8750.60

It is currently trading about 0% below it's 52-week high.


NIFTY 50 has made a new 52-week high today at 8750.60.

For any stock, the 52-week high event is an important milestone because it implies strong buying momentum.

NIFTY INTRADAY VIEW ( 31 - 08 - 2016 )

NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELNIFTY PROBABLE HIGHNIFTY PROBABLE LOW
R48899BULL88258519
R38833UP BREAKOUT87648580
R28809UP CAUTIONLEVEL FOR LONGLEVEL FOR SHORT
R18793SELL86658578
PIVOT8701 LAST DAYSTRONG BULL LOW VOLATALITY
S18696BUYOPEN8647
S28680DOWN CAUTIONHIGH8751.0
S38656DOWN BREAK OUTLOW8642.0
S48590BEARCLOSE8744.35
NIFTY MONTHLY LEVELNIFTY DAILY VOLATALITY1.26%
R26082LONGNIFTY WEEKLY VOLATALITY2.42%
R15976SHORT EXITNIFTY WEEKLY HIGH8751.0
S15765LONG EXITNIFTY WEEKLY LOW8544.0
S25659SHORTNIFTY DAY MEAN8647.5

THE END SESSION ( 30 - 08 - 2016 )

Market gains on positive global cues


Auto, IT and banking stocks and index heavyweights HDFC and ITC led strong gains for key benchmark indices. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, jumped 440.35 points or 1.58% to settle at 28,343.01. The Nifty 50 index rose 136.90 points or 1.59% to settle at 8,744.35. The Sensex settled above the psychological 28,000 mark after reclaiming that level in the opening trade. Barring the S&P BSE Telecom index, all the remaining 18 sectoral indices on BSE registered gains.

Gains in global stocks aided the upmove on the domestic bourses. Key indices hovered in positive zone throughout the trading session after a positive start. The Sensex hit its highest closing level in more than 13 months. The Nifty hit its highest closing level in more than 16 months. The Sensex and the Nifty rose for the second straight trading session.

Wipro rose after the company announced a partnership with Stibo Systems, a global leader in multi-domain Master Data Management (MDM) solutions. Oracle Financial Services Software dropped on turning ex-dividend. Maruti Suzuki India nudged higher after the company announced the launch of sporty Swift Deca, a limited edition model of its most popular hatchback. Bharti Airtel extended recent losses triggered by the company slashing rates for prepaid internet data plan. Coal India rose after the company announced that it has fixed 9 September 2016 as the record date for the purpose of buyback of equity shares.

In overseas stock markets, Asian and European stocks edged higher tracking overnight gains in US market. Bank stocks led gains in US stocks yesterday, 29 August 2016, on increased prospects for interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve in 2016. Investors continued to weigh remarks by Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen, who said late last week in Jackson Hole, Wyo., that an improving US economy had strengthened the case for a rate increase. The Fed last December delivered its first rate increase in nearly a decade. The focus is now on US nonfarm-payroll data for August due on Friday, 2 September 2016.

The Sensex jumped 440.35 points or 1.58% to settle at 28,343.01, its highest closing level since 23 July 2015. The index surged 575.36 points or 2.06% at the day's high of 28,478.02. The index gained 108 points or 0.38% at the day's low of 28,010.66.

The Nifty rose 136.90 points or 1.59% to settle at 8,744.35, its highest closing level since 15 April 2015. The index rose 143.15 points or 1.66% at the day's high of 8,750.60. The index gained 34.80 points or 0.4% at the day's low of 8,642.25.

The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 0.8%. The BSE Small-Cap index rose 1.02%. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.

The market breadth indicating the overall health of the market was strong. On BSE, 1,638 shares rose and 1,073 shares declined. A total of 216 shares were unchanged.
The total turnover on BSE amounted to Rs 3442 crore, higher than turnover of Rs 2920.54 crore registered during the previous trading session.

Barring the S&P BSE Telecom index, all the remaining 18 sectoral indices on BSE registered gains. The S&P BSE IT index (up 1.77%) and the BSE Auto index (up 1.81%) outperformed the Sensex. The BSE Healthcare index (up 1.39%), the BSE Telecom index (down 1.2%), the BSE Bankex index (up 1.49%), the BSE Capital Goods index (up 1.05%), the BSE Metal index (up 1.05%), the BSE Oil & Gas index (up 1.14%) and the BSE Power index (up 1.03%) underperformed the Sensex.

Bank stocks edged higher on renewed buying. Among public sector banks, Union Bank of India (up 5.33%), Bank of India (up 4.67%), Canara Bank (up 2.9%), Punjab National Bank (up 3.25%), IDBI Bank (up 2.62%), Bank of Baroda (up 2.4%), Indian Bank (up 0.98%) and State Bank of India (up 1.39%) gained.

Among private sector banks, ICICI Bank (up 2.3%), Yes Bank (up 1.33%), Kotak Mahindra Bank (up 0.64%), IndusInd Bank (up 0.16%) and Axis Bank (up 0.39%) edged higher.

Index heavyweight HDFC Bank was up 2.35% at Rs 1,267.50. The stock hit a high of Rs 1,285 and a low of Rs 1,225 in intraday trade.

Index heavyweight and housing finance major HDFC was up 1.25% at Rs 1,392.30. The stock hit a high of Rs 1,410 and a low of Rs 1,368.45 in intraday trade.

IT stocks gained. Tech Mahindra (up 2.96%), HCL Technologies (up 2.27%) and TCS (up 1.88%) rose.

Index heavyweight and software major Infosys was up 1.83% at Rs 1,041. The stock hit a high of Rs 1,055.10 and a low of Rs 1,024.80 in intraday trade.

Oracle Financial Services Software was off 2.48% at Rs 3,477.70 as the stock ex-dividend today, 30 August 2016, for dividend of Rs 100 per share for the year ended 31 March 2016.

Wipro rose 2.2% at Rs 489.10 after the company announced a partnership with Stibo Systems, a global leader in multi-domain Master Data Management (MDM) solutions. As part of the partnership, the two companies will collaborate to offer MDM solutions. This partnership is aimed at building trust-worthy data foundations to help joint customers derive accurate insights as they embrace digital transformation, Wipro and Stibo Systems said in a joint press release. The announcement was made after market hours yesterday, 29 August 2016.

Index heavyweight and cigarette major ITC rose 1.78% at Rs 257.35. The stock hit a high of Rs 258 and a low of Rs 253 in intraday trade.

Auto stocks gained. Ashok Leyland (up 0.63%), Eicher Motors (up 3.29%), Hero MotoCorp (up 1.98%), Tata Motors (up 0.69%) and TVS Motor Company (up 4.54%) gained.

Bajaj Auto rose 3.09% at Rs 2,973.40. The stock hit a record high of Rs 3,011.85 in intraday trade.

Maruti Suzuki India (Maruti) rose 2.83% at Rs 5,068.90 after the company announced the launch of sporty Swift Deca, a limited edition model of its most popular hatchback. The stock hit a high of Rs 5,104.90 in intraday trade, which is also a record high for the counter. The stock hit a low of Rs 4,950 in intraday trade. Maruti Swift Deca is available in two variants viz. Swift Deca Edition VXi at Rs 5.94 lakh and Swift Deca Edition VDi at Rs 6.86 lakh. The announcement was made during market hours today, 30 August 2016.

Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) rose 1.02% at Rs 1,436.55. The company announced incorporation of a subsidiary company in UAE viz. Bristlecone Middle East DMCC. The announcement was made after market hours yesterday, 29 August 2016. 

Bristlecone Middle East DMCC was incorporated as a 100% subsidiary of Bristlecone, which in turn is a subsidiary of M&M. Bristlecone Middle East DMCC was incorporated to promote business consulting, software implementation and related support services. The authorised capital of Bristlecone Middle East DMCC is 50,000 UAE Dirham.

Bharti Airtel fell 2.82% at Rs 332.10, with the stock extending recent losses triggered by the company slashing rates for prepaid internet data plan. Shares of Bharti Airtel have fallen 4.05% in three trading sessions from its close of Rs 346.15 on Thursday, 25 August 2016. Bharti Airtel cut prices of mobile data services for prepaid customers by announcing the launch of two new 4G/3G data plans recently. The move comes ahead of the commercial launch of 4G services from Reliance Jio Infocomm. As per reports, Reliance Jio Infocomm, a unit of Reliance Industries, is expected to launch commercial 4G telecom services in the coming weeks.

Bharti Airtel's Rs 1,498 pack offers 1GB 4G/3G data upfront with a validity of 28 days. Post exhaustion of this data limit, the customer can enjoy 1GB 4G/3G recharges for just Rs 51 over a period of 12 months. There is no limit on the number of recharges during the period and higher the number of recharges the more value a customer gets. Similarly, the Rs 748 pack offers 1GB 4G/3G data upfront and post exhaustion of this data limit, customers can enjoy 1GB 4G/3G recharges for just Rs 99 over a period of six months. There is no limit on the number of recharges during the period.
By offering these schemes, Bharti Airtel reportedly attempted to keep its customers tied up to year-long plans and stop them from porting out.

Coal India was up 0.31% at Rs 334.90 after the company after market hours yesterday, 29 August 2016, announced that it has fixed 9 September 2016 as the record date for the purpose of buyback of equity shares. The company's board on 11 July 2016 approved buyback of shares at a price of Rs 335 per share for an aggregate consideration not exceeding Rs 3650 crore through the tender offer route. The company's promoter viz. Government of India intends to participate in the buyback offer.

Key benchmark indices rose for the second straight trading session. The Sensex has risen 560.76 points or 2.01% in two trading sessions from its close of 27,782.25 on 26 August 2016. The Sensex has risen 291.15 points or 1.03% in this month so far (till 30 August 2016). The Sensex has risen 2,225.47 points or 8.52% in calendar year 2016 so far (till 30 August 2016). From a 52-week low of 22,494.61 hit on 29 February 2016, the barometer index has risen 5,848.40 points or 25.99%. The Sensex is off 1,681.73 points or 5.6% from a record high of 30,024.74 hit on 4 March 2015.

Monday, August 29, 2016

NIFTY INTRADAY VIEW ( 30 - 08 - 2016 )

NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELNIFTY PROBABLE HIGHNIFTY PROBABLE LOW
R48695BULL86468535
R38659UP BREAKOUT86188563
R28646UP CAUTIONLEVEL FOR LONGLEVEL FOR SHORT
R18638SELL86438558
PIVOT8591 LAST DAYSTRONG BULL LOW VOLATALITY
S18577BUYOPEN8584
S28569DOWN CAUTIONHIGH8622.0
S38556DOWN BREAK OUTLOW8544.0
S48520BEARCLOSE8607.45
NIFTY MONTHLY LEVELNIFTY DAILY VOLATALITY0.91%
R26082LONGNIFTY WEEKLY VOLATALITY1.63%
R15976SHORT EXITNIFTY WEEKLY HIGH8683.0
S15765LONG EXITNIFTY WEEKLY LOW8544.0
S25659SHORTNIFTY DAY MEAN8613.5

THE END SESSION ( 29 - 08 - 2016 )

Key indices register modest gains


Auto, metal stocks and index heavyweight Reliance Industries led modest gains for key benchmark indices in a volatile trading session. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, rose 120.41 points or 0.43% to settle at 27,902.66. The Nifty 50 index rose 34.90 points or 0.41% to settle at 8,607.45. The Sensex and the Nifty snapped two-day losing streak.

Stocks of public sector banks edged higher. Stocks of private sector banks were mixed. Tata Motors extended gains registered during the previous trading session in the wake of the announcement of Q1 June 2016 results. Vedanta rose after the company said third unit of its Talwandi Sabo power plant in Punjab achieved commercial operation date. Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL) fell after the company's average gross refining margin dropped in Q1 June 2016. L&T rose after company's Chairman A. M. Naik said that the company's goal is to achieve revenue of Rs 2 lakh crore by 2021 without compromising on profit margins.

The Sensex rose 120.41 points or 0.43% to settle at 27,902.66, its highest closing level since 24 August 2016. The index rose 170.60 points or 0.61% at the day's high of 27,952.85. The index fell 83.54 points or 0.3% at the day's low of 27,698.71.

The Nifty rose 34.90 points or 0.41% to settle at 8,607.45, its highest closing level since 24 August 2016. The index rose 49.45 points or 0.57% at the day's high of 8,622. The index fell 28.80 points or 0.33% at the day's low of 8,543.75.

The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 0.49%, outperforming the Sensex. The BSE Small-Cap index rose 0.09%, underperforming the Sensex.

The market breadth indicating the overall health of the market was negative. On BSE, 1,465 shares declined and 1,216 shares rose. A total of 206 shares were unchanged.
The total turnover on BSE amounted to Rs 2909 crore, higher than turnover of Rs 2799.42 crore registered during the previous trading session.

Among the sectoral indices on BSE, the S&P BSE Industrials index (up 1.44%), the BSE Auto index (up 1.44%), the BSE Capital Goods index (up 1.17%) and the BSE Metal index (up 1.07%) outperformed the Sensex. The BSE IT index (down 0.89%), the BSE Telecom index (down 0.81%), the BSE Bankex index (up 0.24%) and the BSE Realty index (down 0.81%) underperformed the Sensex.

Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) rose 2.85% at Rs 1,057. The company's Annual General Meeting (AGM) is scheduled on Thursday, 1 September 2016.

Stocks of public sector banks edged higher. Canara Bank (up 1.56%), Bank of Baroda (up 1.17%), Indian Bank (up 1.13%), State Bank of India (up 0.83%), Bank of India (up 0.54%), Punjab National Bank (up 0.29%) and Union Bank of India (up 0.26%),Punjab National Bank (up 0.29%) and Union Bank of India (up 0.26%) gained. United Bank of India (down 0.69%) and IDBI Bank (down 0.07%) edged lower.

Stocks of private sector banks were mixed. ICICI Bank (up 2.1%), Yes Bank (up 0.83%) and Axis Bank (up 0.34%) edged higher. IndusInd Bank (down 0.89%) and Kotak Mahindra Bank (down 0.12%) edged lower.

Index heavyweight HDFC Bank was down 1.55% at Rs 1,238.35. The stock hit a high of Rs 1,257.70 and a low of Rs 1,235.25 in intraday trade.

Auto stocks rose. TVS Motor Company (up 2.82%), Hero MotoCorp (up 2.81%), Bajaj Auto (up 1.49%), Eicher Motors (up 0.36%), Ashok Leyland (up 0.23%) and Maruti Suzuki India (up 0.18%) edged higher. Mahindra & Mahindra (down 0.21%) edged lower.

Tata Motors rose 4.18% at Rs 524.70, with the stock extending gains registered during the previous trading session in the wake of the announcement of Q1 June 2016 results. The Q1 result was announced during market hours on Friday, 26 August 2016, when the stock settled 2.01% higher at Rs 503.65. The stock has risen 6.24% in two trading sessions from its close of Rs 493.75 on Thursday, 25 August 2016.

Tata Motors' consolidated net profit declined 57.25% to Rs 2236 crore on 9.01% growth in revenue to Rs 67056 crore in Q1 June 2016 over Q1 June 2015. Tata Motors said that higher volumes in both standalone as well as Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) business was more than offset by the adverse foreign currency impact of Rs 2296 crore and adverse commodity derivatives impact of Rs 167 crore in the operating profit mainly in the Jaguar Land Rover business. The profitability was also adversely impacted by lower local market incentive in the JLR business as compared to the corresponding quarter last year and higher depreciation and amortization expenses as compared to the corresponding quarter last year. Tata Motors attributed the increase in top line during the quarter to strong sales from Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) business and continued volume growth in M&HCV segment and the LCV segment.
Meanwhile, Tata Motors' board approved raising funds aggregating Rs 3000 crore by way of issue of secured/unsecured debentures and/or bonds in one or more tranches, from time to time.

Metal and mining stocks gained. Hindalco Industries (up 2.1%), NMDC (up 2.37%), JSW Steel (up 0.93%), Steel Authority of India (up 0.52%), Tata Steel (up 0.88%), Hindustan Zinc (up 1.2%), Jindal Steel & Power (up 0.24%) and National Aluminium Company (up 0.11%) edged higher. Hindustan Copper (down 1.77%) edged lower.
Meanwhile, copper prices edged lower in global commodities markets. High Grade Copper for December 2016 delivery was currently down 0.02% at $2.084 per pound on the COMEX.

Vedanta rose 2.3% at Rs 173.20 after the company said third unit of its Talwandi Sabo power plant in Punjab achieved commercial operation date. The announcement was made during trading hours today, 29 August 2016. Vedanta said that the third 660 megawatts (MW) unit of its Talwandi Sabo power plant in Punjab has been put to commercial production on 24 August 2016 and will be capitalized in September 2016.
Further, the company said that commissioning of pots at the first line of the 1.25 mtpa Jharsuguda-ll Aluminium smelter was completed in end July 2016. The first line was impacted by a pot failure incident due to a power shut down in early August, post which 168 pots were taken out of production. The impacted pots are currently being repaired and relined. The commissioning of the second line commenced in July 2016 with 65 pots commissioned till date, and this line will ramp up in the next 3-6 months. The company said it plans to start commissioning of pots at the third line of the smelter in September 2016, well ahead of its earlier schedule of Q4 March 2017.
The 325kt BALCO-II smelter was successfully commissioned with all 336 pots operational in August, and are expected to be capitalized by October 2016. The current run-rate of aluminium production is about 1 mtpa and the overall FY 2017 volume guidance remains unchanged at 1.2 mtpa.

The company has secured 6.09 million tonnes per annum in a coal auction in August 2016 for its captive power plants that supply power to aluminium smelters at Jharsuguda and Balco. The tenor of the linkage is 5 years with an option to extend this further. The premium paid was Rs 96 per tonne, which is about 10% over the Coal India linkage price for captive power plants. This will contribute to the long-term security of coal requirement at a competitive price.

Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL) fell 0.32% at Rs 571.95 after the company's average gross refining margin dropped to $9.98 per barrel in Q1 June 2016 from $10.77 per barrel in Q1 June 2015. The company's net profit rose 25.46% to Rs 8268.98 crore on 5.72% fall in total income to Rs 107670.95 crore in Q1 June 2016 over Q1 June 2015. IOCL announced Q1 June 2016 results during market hours today, 29 August 2016.
IOCL accounted for budgetary support amounting to Rs 1331.69 crore from Government of India in Q1 June 2016 towards under recovery on sale of PDS kerosene (SKO), compared with Rs 1732.95 crore in Q1 June 2015. State-run oil marketing companies bear under-recoveries on domestic sale of LPG and kerosene at controlled prices. The government has already freed pricing of petrol and diesel.
In Q1 June 2016, IOCL did not get any discount from ONGC/Oil India/Chennai Petroleum Corporation in respect of crude oil purchased from them compared with discount received of Rs 878.84 crore in Q1 June 2015.

Meanwhile, IOCL's board of directors recommended issue of bonus shares in ratio of 1:1 (one bonus share for each share held).

L&T rose 1.99% at Rs 1,456.20 after company's Chairman A. M. Naik said that the company's goal is to achieve revenue of Rs 2 lakh crore by 2021 without compromising on profit margins. Shares of L&T declined 2.02% to settle at Rs 1,427.85 on Friday, 26 August 2016, after the company presented to the stock exchanges a copy of Chairman Naik's speech made at the company's Annual General Meeting in Mumbai on that day.

Naik said at the company's Annual General Meeting that the company's goal is to achieve revenue of Rs 2 lakh crore ($30 billion) by 2021 without compromising on profit margins. L&T's net revenue from operations stood at Rs 1.02 lakh crore in the year ended 31 March 2016 (FY 2016) based on consolidated financial performance.
He said that economic conditions are starting to turn in favour of the company. Naik said that the opening of the defence sector will lead to business opportunities worth Rs 13 lakh crore over the next 10 years. He also said that there is estimated business opportunity of Rs 50000 crore over 10 years in nuclear power sector. Naik also said that L&T will tap business opportunity in government's Smart City projects and realty segment. Naik said that there are a number of projects in the road, ports, airports, railway sectors in pipeline with a total estimated value of over Rs 14 lakh crore. Naik said that L&T is also strengthening its operations in the Gulf, Africa and South East Asia.

Wipro fell 2.33% at Rs 478.55. The stock was volatile. The stock hit a high of Rs 492.10 and a low of Rs 476 in intraday trade. The company after market hours today, 29 August 2016, announced a partnership with Stibo Systems, a global leader in multi-domain Master Data Management (MDM) solutions. As part of the partnership, the two companies will collaborate to offer MDM solutions. This partnership is aimed at building trust-worthy data foundations to help joint customers derive accurate insights as they embrace digital transformation, Wipro and Stibo Systems said in a joint press release.

Key benchmark indices snapped two-day losing streak. The Sensex had fallen 277.69 points or 0.98% in the preceding two trading sessions to settle at 27,782.25 on Friday, 26 August 2016, from its close of 28,059.94 on 24 August 2016. The Sensex has fallen 149.20 points or 0.53% in this month so far (till 29 August 2016). The Sensex has risen 1,785.12 points or 6.83% in calendar year 2016 so far (till 29 August 2016). From a 52-week low of 22,494.61 hit on 29 February 2016, the barometer index has risen 5,408.05 points or 24.04%. The Sensex is off 387.30 points or 1.36% from a 52-week high of 28,289.96 hit on 9 August 2016. The Sensex is off 2,122.08 points or 7.06% from a record high of 30,024.74 hit on 4 March 2015.

In overseas stock markets, European and Asian stocks edged lower after Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen on Friday, 26 August 2016 signaled the possibility of an interest-rate increase later this year. High US interest rates would pull money out of emerging markets and redirect it to the US. Japanese shares bucked a weak trend in Asian stocks on weaker yen. The Nikkei 225 Average settled 2.3% higher. A weaker local currency benefits exporters, as they can sell their goods at more competitive prices overseas.

US stocks closed mixed on Friday, 26 August 2016 Yellen signaled the possibility of an interest-rate increase later this year. On Friday, 26 August 2016, Yellen said in her highly-anticipated speech at an economic symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming that she was optimistic about the US economy, fueling expectations that interest rate hikes were ahead. She said the Federal Open Market Committee continued to anticipate gradual increases in the federal funds rate over time to achieve and sustain employment and inflation in line with the Fed's objectives. She added that the solid performance in the US labor market and outlook for economic activity and inflation had strengthened the case in recent months for an increase in the federal funds rate.

Sunday, August 28, 2016

NIFTY INTRADAY VIEW ( 29 - 08 - 2016 )

NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELNIFTY PROBABLE HIGHNIFTY PROBABLE LOW
R48657BULL86628519
R38622UP BREAKOUT86348548
R28610UP CAUTIONLEVEL FOR LONGLEVEL FOR SHORT
R18602SELL86568584
PIVOT8581 LAST DAYBEAR WITH LV
S18543BUYOPEN8614
S28535DOWN CAUTIONHIGH8623.0
S38523DOWN BREAK OUTLOW8548.0
S48488BEARCLOSE8572.55
NIFTY MONTHLY LEVELNIFTY DAILY VOLATALITY0.88%
R26082LONGNIFTY WEEKLY VOLATALITY1.6%
R15976SHORT EXITNIFTY WEEKLY HIGH8685.0
S15765LONG EXITNIFTY WEEKLY LOW8548.0
S25659SHORTNIFTY DAY MEAN8616.5

Saturday, August 27, 2016

NIFTY VIEW

TREND:

NIFTY 50 breached the lows of past 9 days - 8540 to act as intraday support.
NIFTY 50 is trading near the highs of last 1 year.
Longer to medium Term Trend is Up.

JAPANESE CANDLESTICK ANALYSIS:

NIFTY 50 is trading near the middle of the day's range.
Lower High and Lower Low compared to previous day. Bearish
Day's Range: 8547.55 ~ 8622.95
NIFTY 50 opened at 8614.35 compared to previous close of 8592.20

DAY'S PIVOT POINT LEVELS (SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE):

NIFTY 50 is trading Below the pivot.
Pivot Point 8,581.02
Pivot Point Resistance at 8,614.48(R1) --> 8,656.42(R2) --> 8,731.82(R3) --> 8,807.22(R4)
Pivot Point Supports at 8,539.08(S1) --> 8,505.62(S2) --> 8,430.22(S3) --> 8,354.82(S4)
*pivot points are calculated based on the closing data of 2016-08-26

VOLUME AND MOVING AVERAGE ANALYSIS:

20-Day SMA: 8,629.5
20-Day average volume: 186,105,350
20-Day Range: 8,518.2 ~ 8,728.4
NIFTY 50 has average daily volume of 186,105,350 compared to today's volume of 152,134,000. It is currently trading Below 20 day simple moving average.

Intraday Bearish!!!

50-Day SMA: 8,482.2
50-Day average volume: 181,109,700
50-Day Range: 7,927.1 ~ 8,728.4

Short Term Trend is Up!!!

8622.95 to act as intraday resistance.

52-WEEK RANGE:

52 Week Range: 6825.80 ~ 8728.35
It is currently trading about 2% below it's 52-week high.

THE WEEK THAT WAS

Economic data, monsoon progress will be watched


The outcome of the monthly surveys on India's manufacturing sectors, trend in global markets, investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs), the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement will dictate market trend in the near term.

Among corporate news, DLF and MOIL will announce their Q1 June 2016 results on Monday, 29 August 2016.

Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) will consider bonus issue of shares and its Q1 June 2016 results on Monday, 29 August 2016.

Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) will announce its Q1 June 2016 results on Wednesday, 31 August 2016.

The performance of the monsoon rains will be monitored. In its monsoon update issued on Thursday, 25 August 2016, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that for the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this year's monsoon so far (till 25 August 2016) was 3% below the long period average (LPA).

Stocks of auto companies will be in focus as companies start unveiling monthly sales volume data for August 2016 from Thursday, 1 September 2016.

Stocks of public sector oil marketing companies (PSU OMCs) will be in focus as a fuel price review is due at the end of the month. PSU OMCs undertake fuel price review twice during the month based on the trend in international oil market. The first price review takes place during the middle of the month and the second on the last day of the month. Aviation stocks will be in focus as a monthly review of jet fuel prices is due at the end of the month. PSU OMCs review jet fuel prices on the last day every month based on the average imported crude oil price for the month. Jet fuel prices are directly linked to crude

Among domestic macro economic data, Markit Economics will announce the India Manufacturing PMI for August 2016 on Thursday, 1 September 2016.

Among global cues, market will react to Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen's speech on Friday, 26 August 2016, which could provide hints about the timing of the next rate hike from the Fed. High US interest rates would pull money out of emerging markets and redirect it to the US. Yellen is due to speak at the Kansas City Fed's annual Monetary Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) July meeting showed officials were split on whether an increase in interest rate was needed soon.

In US, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change data for the month of August 2016 and Pending Home Sales data in the US for the month of July 2016 will be unveiled on Wednesday, 31 August 2016. US Nonfarm Payrolls data for the month of August 2016 and US Unemployment Rate data for the month of August 2016 will be unveiled on Friday, 2 September 2016.

China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for the month of August 2016 and China Caixin Manufacturing PMI data for the month of August 2016 will be unveiled on Wednesday, 31 August 2016.

THE WEEK THAT WAS

Market slips on US rate hike concerns


The market declined last week, reflecting the cautious mood in global equities, ahead of the eagerly awaited commentary from US Federal Reserve on how aggressively it plans to raise rates. In the week ended Friday, 26 August 2016, the Sensex fell 294.75 points or 1.05% to settle at 27,782.25. The Nifty 50 index fell 94.35 points or 1.09% to settle at 8,572.55. The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 35.02 points or 0.27% to settle at 13,000.15. The decline in this index was lower than the Sensex's decline in percentage terms. The BSE Small-Cap index gained 27.66 points or 0.22% to settle at 12,487.12, outperforming the Sensex.

Caution prevailed on the bourses ahead of a speech by Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen on Friday, 26 August 2016, at the Kansas City Fed's annual Monetary Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, which could provide hints about the timing of the next rate hike from the Fed. High US interest rates would pull money out of emerging markets and redirect it to the US. Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) July meeting showed officials were split on whether an increase in interest rate was needed soon.

Trading for the week began on weak note. Key benchmark indices registered modest losses on Monday, 22 August 2016, after the government named Reserve Bank of India (RBI) deputy governor Urjit Patel who is known as an inflation hawk as the new RBI governor to succeed Raghuram Rajan. The Sensex fell 91.46 points or 0.33% to settle at 27,985.54, its lowest closing level since 11 August 2016.

Patel who handles the monetary policy department as the RBI deputy governor will take charge as the new RBI governor on 4 September 2016, the day when Rajan's 3-year term as the RBI governor ends. Patel's term is also for a 3-year period. By naming Patel who is a deputy governor at the central bank as the new RBI governor, the government is sending signal to markets that there will be continuity of central bank's policies.

A recovery towards the latter part of the trading session helped key benchmark indices end near the flat line on Tuesday, 23 August 2016. The Sensex rose 4.67 points or 0.02% to settle at 27,990.21, its highest closing level since 19 August 2016.
Key benchmark indices registered small gains in a lacklustre trading session on Wednesday, 24 August 2016. The Sensex rose 69.73 points or 0.25% to settle at 28,059.94, its highest closing level since 19 August 2016.

Telecom, IT, metal sector stocks and index heavyweight HDFC led losses for key benchmark indices Thursday, 25 August 2016. The Sensex fell 224.03 points or 0.8% to settle at 27,835.91, its lowest closing level since 4 August 2016.

Key benchmark indices registered small losses after witnessing volatility towards late trade on Friday, 26 August 2016. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, lost 53.66 points or 0.19% to settle at 27,782.25. The Nifty 50 index lost 19.65 points or 0.23% to settle at 8,572.55.

Among the 30 Sensex shares, 22 stocks declined last week.

IT major Wipro was the biggest Sensex loser last week. It fell 5.89% to Rs 489.95.
IT bellwether Infosys fell 0.03% to Rs 1,020.75. As per media reports, Infosys may get about $60 million (Rs 400 crore) in incremental revenue over the third and fourth quarters of the current financial year (FY 2017) as part of the Rs 1380 crore Goods Services and Tax Network (GSTN) project. Under the ongoing GSTN project, Infosys has started importing hardware, including servers and network equipment devices, payment for which will be made by GSTN starting October this year, reports suggested.

Another IT giant TCS fell 2.87% to Rs 2,529.15. The company on Thursday, 25 August 2016, announced new software that enables retailers to leverage insightful data either from in-store sensors or other Internet of Things (IoT) devices to deepen relationships with customers through more personalized customer engagement strategies.

The S&P BSE IT index fell 146.17 points, or 1.39% to 10,390.48 last week.

ITC rose 1.08% to Rs 253.75 on reports that a foreign brokerage has maintained its outperform rating on the stock. The brokerage reportedly stated in a research note that lower price hike will support ITC's cigarette volume growth. The company's earnings are likely to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% over FY 2016 to FY 2019, the brokerage reportedly said.

State-run oil production and exploration firm ONGC declined after fall in global crude oil prices. The stock fell 1.45% to Rs 238.45.

Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) rose 1.27% to Rs 1,027.70.

GAIL (India) rose 4.26% to Rs 379.20 after the company signed a memorandum of understanding with Silicon Valley-based Bloom Energy to generate power with clean and reliable energy. The announcement was made on Monday, 22 August 2016.

State-run NTPC fell 5.25% to Rs 158. after net profit rose 4.09% to Rs 2369.53 crore on 10.89% rise in total income to Rs 19220.80 crore in Q1 June 2016 over Q1 June 2015. The result was announced on Monday, 22 August 2016.

Index heavyweight HDFC Bank rose 1.04% to Rs 1,257.90.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said in a draft paper on banks' large exposure (LE) limit that large exposure limit in respect of each counterparty and group of connected counterparties will be capped at 20% and 25% respectively of the bank's eligible capital base under normal circumstances. The eligible capital base will be defined as the Tier 1 capital of the bank as against capital funds at present. A group of connected counterparties will be identified on the basis of 'control' as well as 'economic dependence' criteria. The RBI has sought public comments on the draft LE framework by 15 September 2016.

Separately, RBI has allowed banks to issue rupee bonds overseas (Masala Bonds) for their capital requirements and for financing infrastructure and affordable housing. This was a part of the measures announced by RBI for the development of fixed income and currency markets.

State Bank of India fell 4.56% to Rs 246.70. ICICI Bank fell 3.44% to Rs 245.25. The RBI continued to classify these two banks as domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs). The additional Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) requirement for D-SIBs has already been phased-in from 1 April 2016 and would become fully effective from 1 April 2019. The additional CET1 requirement will be in addition to the capital conservation buffer. On account of being classified as D-SIB, there is additional CET1 requirement of 0.6% of Risk Weighted Assets (RWAs) for SBI and 0.2% of RWAs for ICICI Bank.

Tata Motors fell 1.25% to Rs 503.65. The company's consolidated net profit dropped 56.98% to Rs 2260.40 crore on 8.9% growth in total income to Rs 67229.69 crore in Q1 June 2016 over Q1 June 2015. The result was announced on Friday, 26 August 2016.
Meanwhile, RBI after trading hours on Thursday, 25 August 2016, announced a package of measures for the development of fixed income and currency markets. The central said it has been decided to enhance the aggregate limit of partial credit enhancement (PCE) provided by banks, permit brokers in corporate bond repos, authorise the platform for repo in corporate bonds and encourage credit supply for large borrowers through market mechanism. The RBI has allowed banks to issue issue rupee bonds overseas (Masala Bonds) for their capital requirements and for financing infrastructure and affordable housing.

Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) will be given direct access to NDS-OM to ease the process of investment in debt securities. The RBI said it has also been decided to provide FPIs facility to trade directly in corporate bonds.

Meanwhile, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in its monsoon update issued on Thursday, 25 August 2016, said that for the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this year's monsoon so far (till 25 August 2016) was 3% below the long period average (LPA).