Tuesday, September 01, 2015

NIFTY INTRADAY VIEW ( 02 / 09 )

NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELNIFTY PROBABLE HIGHNIFTY PROBABLE LOW
R48020BULL81047643
R37917UP BREAKOUT80127735
R27880UP CAUTIONLEVEL FOR LONGLEVEL FOR SHORT
R17855SELL80227885
PIVOT7835 LAST DAYSTRONG BEAR
S17716BUYOPEN7908
S27692DOWN CAUTIONHIGH7929.0
S37655DOWN BREAK OUTLOW7746.0
S47552BEARCLOSE7785.85
NIFTY MONTHLY LEVELNIFTY DAILY VOLATALITY2.36%
R26082LONGNIFTY WEEKLY VOLATALITY4.47%
R15976SHORT EXITNIFTY WEEKLY HIGH8092.0
S15765LONG EXITNIFTY WEEKLY LOW7746.0
S25659SHORTNIFTY DAY MEAN7919

THE END SESSION ( 01 / 09 / 2015 )

Market sees broad based sell-off

A fresh setback for global stocks along with disappointing economic data at home triggered a sharp slide on the domestic bourses. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, fell 586.65 points or 2.23% to settle at 25,696.44. The 50-unit CNX Nifty fell 185.45 points or 2.33% to settle at 7,785.85. The Sensex fell below the psychological 26,000 level. The Sensex hit its lowest closing level in more than a year. The Nifty hit its lowest closing level in more than 10 months. Banking and metal stocks led the decline in key benchmark indices. Stocks fell across the globe after disappointing manufacturing data in China.

Closer home, the broad market depicted weakness. There were more than three losers against every gainer on BSE. The BSE Mid-Cap index lost 1.96%. The BSE Small-Cap index shed 2.17%.

Metal shares edged lower after twin surveys showed China's manufacturing sector in the grip of its worst slump in several years.

The Sensex fell 586.65 points or 2.23% to settle at 25,696.44, its lowest closing level since 11 August 2014. The index lost 703.21 points at the day's low of 25,579.88 in mid-afternoon trade. The index fell 142.02 points at the day's high of 26,141.07 at the onset of the trading session.

The CNX Nifty fell 185.45 points or 2.33% to settle at 7,785.85, its lowest closing level since 17 October 2014 The index hit a low of 7,746.50 in intraday trade. The index hit a high of 7,929.10 in intraday trade.

The market breadth indicating the overall health of the market was quite weak. There were more than three losers against every gainer on BSE. 2,082 shares declined and 612 shares rose. A total of 89 shares were unchanged.

The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 210.59 points or 1.96% to settle at 10,523.83. The BSE Small-Cap index fell 237.89 points or 2.17% to settle at 10,733.38. The fall in both these indices was lower than the Sensex's decline in percentage terms.

The total turnover on BSE amounted to Rs 2519 crore, higher than turnover of Rs 2199.30 crore registered during the previous trading session.

Tata Motors fell 3.10% to Rs 329.60. Tata Motors' total sales fell 0.5% to 40,680 units in August 2015 over August 2014. Domestic sales declined 3% to 35,478 units in August 2015 over August 2014. Exports rose 16% to 5,202 units in August 2015 over August 2014. Sales of passenger cars rose 19% to 9,814 units in August 2015 over August 2014. In commercial vehicles segment, M&HCV sales jumped 31% to 12,017 units in August 2015 over August 2014. Sales of light and small commercial vehicles dropped 25% to 12,267 units in August 2015 over August 2014. This monthly sales data pertains to the standalone operations of Tata Motors. The company announced the monthly sales volume data after trading hours today, 1 September 2015.

Bank stocks declined. ICICI Bank shed 2.32% to Rs 271.65. State Bank of India (SBI) declined 3.24% to Rs 239.10. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) after market hours yesterday, 31 August 2015, named SBI and ICICI Bank as domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs). Under this framework, the additional Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) requirements as a percentage of Risk Weighted Assets (RWAs) applicable to ICICI Bank is 0.2% while for State Bank of India (SBI) it is 0.6%. The additional Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) requirements applicable to D-SIBs will be applicable from 1 April 2016 in a phased manner and would become fully effective from 1 April 2019. The additional CET1 requirement is in addition to the capital conservation buffer.

This is the first time that the RBI has named D-SIBs. The RBI will release the list of D-SIBs every year.

Among private bank stocks, Kotak Mahindra Bank (down 5.71%), Axis Bank (down 5.24%), Yes Bank (down 3.35%), Federal Bank (down 3.18%), IndusInd Bank (down 3.09%) and City Union Bank (down 2.8%), edged lower.

HDFC Bank lost 2.68% to Rs 1000.60 on reports the bank has slashed base rate by 35 basis points to 9.35% from 9.7% earlier. The base rate is the minimum lending rate charged by a bank.

Among PSU bank stocks, IDBI Bank (down 5.94%), Bank of India (down 5.38%), Union Bank of India (down 5.34%), UCO Bank (down 4.57%), Andhra Bank (down 4.37%), Syndicate Bank (down 4.1%), Allahabad Bank (down 3.96%), Dena Bank (down 3.76%), Punjab and Sind Bank (down 3.27%), Indian Bank (down 3.19%), United Bank of India (down 2.72%), Corporation Bank (down 2.51%), Vijaya Bank (down 2.35%), Central Bank of India (down 1.63%) and Bank of Maharashtra (down 1.29%) edged lower.

Canara Bank fell 6.12% to Rs 268.35 after the bank's board of directors approved reduction in the base rate by 10 basis points to 9.9% from 10% with effect from 3 September 2015. The announcement was made after market hours yesterday, 31 August 2015.

Bank of Baroda lost 6.53% to Rs 172.60 after the bank said it has fixed issue price at Rs 192.74 per share for preferential allotment of shares to the Government of India (GoI). GoI will infuse capital funds to the tune of Rs 1786 crore in Bank of Baroda through the preferential allotment of equity shares.

Punjab National Bank lost 6.94% to Rs 134.80 after global credit rating agency Fitch downgraded the bank's Viability Rating by one notch to 'bb, citing growing risk to the bank's capital position from its mounting stressed assets. Fitch believes that PNB's recovery could prove to be more protracted than other similar-sized peers because of large stressed assets.

Metal and mining shares edged lower after twin surveys showed China's manufacturing sector in the grip of its worst slump in several years. Steel Authority of India (down 6.59%), Hindalco Industries (down 5.18%), Jindal Steel & Power (down 4.64%), Tata Steel (down 3.93%), Hindustan Copper (down 3.85%), Vedanta (down 3.8%), Bhushan Steel (down 3.24%), JSW Steel (down 2.17%), Hindustan Zinc (down 1.1%) and NMDC (down 0.5%), edged lower. National Aluminium Company was unchanged at Rs 32.30. China is the world's largest consumer of steel, copper and aluminum.

The Sensex has fallen 1,802.98 points or 6.56% in this calendar year so far (till 1 September 2015). The Sensex has risen 398.02 points or 1.57% from a 52-week low of 25,298.42 hit on 25 August 2015. The Sensex is off 4,328.30 points or 14.42% from a record high of 30,024.74 hit on 4 March 2015.

India's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 7% in Q1 June 2015, slower than 7.5% expansion registered in Q4 March 2015, according to the data released by the government after trading hours yesterday, 31 August 2015. Another data showed slowdown in core sector growth to 1.1% in July 2015 from 3% growth in June 2015. Meanwhile, the outcome of a monthly survey showed slowdown in growth in India's manufacturing sector last month.

Sunday, August 30, 2015

NIFTY INTRADAY VIEW ( 31 / 08 )

NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELNIFTY PROBABLE HIGHNIFTY PROBABLE LOW
R48154BULL81557754
R38089UP BREAKOUT80757834
R28065UP CAUTIONLEVEL FOR LONGLEVEL FOR SHORT
R18049SELL79957867
PIVOT8014 LAST DAYBEAR
S17955BUYOPEN8054
S27939DOWN CAUTIONHIGH8092.0
S37915DOWN BREAK OUTLOW7962.0
S47850BEARCLOSE8001.95
NIFTY MONTHLY LEVELNIFTY DAILY VOLATALITY1.63%
R26082LONGNIFTY WEEKLY VOLATALITY5.54%
R15976SHORT EXITNIFTY WEEKLY HIGH8092.0
S15765LONG EXITNIFTY WEEKLY LOW7667.0
S25659SHORTNIFTY DAY MEAN7879.5

THE WEEK AHEAD

GDP data, global cues to dictate trend


Macroeconomic data, the performance of the monsoon rains, trend in global markets, flows from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement will dictate trend on the bourses.

Shares of automobile companies will be in focus as companies start announcing monthly sales volume data for August 2015 from Tuesday, 1 September 2015.

Shares of public sector oil marketing companies (PSU OMCs) will be in focus as a regular fuel price review is due at the month end. PSU OMCs review fuel prices twice a month based on the trend in international oil market and currency movement. The first review takes place during the middle of the month and the last review at the month-end. PSU OMCs also review jet fuel prices on the last day of the month.

Meanwhile, investors continue to watch the performance of the monsoon rains which will have a bearing on food prices and rural income. India's weather office India Meteorological Department (IMD) in its weekly report released on Thursday, 27 August 2015, said that as per its extended range forecast till 13 September 2015, normal to above normal rainfall activity is likely over east and northeast India during next 7 days. Below normal rainfall activity is likely over many parts of northwest, westcentral and central India during next two weeks, the IMD said. The IMD further said there is a possibility of normal to slightly above normal rainfall activity over south peninsula between 4 to 13 September.

The June-September southwest monsoon is critical for the country's agriculture because a considerable part of the country's farmland is dependent on the rains for irrigation.

In macroeconomic data, the government will release India's gross domestic product (GDP) data for Q1 June 2015 on Monday, 31 August 2015. India's GDP grew 7.5% in Q4 March 2015 over Q4 March 2014.

The Nikkei India Manufacturing PMI data for the month of August 2015 is due on Tuesday, 1 September 2015. The seasonally adjusted Nikkei India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) printed a six-month high of 52.7 in July 2015, up from 51.3 in June 2015.

The Nikkei India Service PMI data for the month of August 2015 is due on Thursday, 3 September 2015. The seasonally adjusted Nikkei Services Business Activity Index rose back above the 50 no-change mark in July, posting 50.8 from 47.7 in June.

Among global news, Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI data for August 2015 is due on Tuesday, 1 September 2015. European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy statement is scheduled on Thursday, 3 September 2015. On the same day, Eurozone Markit Services PMI data for August is due.

In the United States, the crucial monthly non-farm payrolls data for August is due on Friday, 4 September 2015.

THE WEEK THAT WAS

Sensex, Nifty drop more than 3.5% each on China growth worries



After a sell-off on the first trading session of the week triggered by a rout in global equities, key equity benchmark indices recovered later. Global stocks witnessed a roller coaster ride as fears about the deepening effects of a slowdown in China's economy rattled investors. A strong recovery was witnessed in Chinese stocks on the last two trading sessions of the week. The rebound in Chinese stocks along with upbeat US Q2 June 2015 GDP data released on 27 August 2015 calmed sentiment in global markets. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, reclaimed the psychological 26,000 level after falling below that level. The 50-unit CNX Nifty reclaimed the psychological 8,000 level after falling below that level. Key indices registered gains on three trading sessions and registered losses in two sessions during the week ended Friday, 28 August 2015.

There was massive selling of Indian stocks by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) during the week. FPIs sold shares worth a net Rs 12565.52 crore into the secondary equity market during four trading session from 24 to 27 August 2015.

The S&P BSE Sensex dropped 973.69 points or 3.55% to settle at 26,392.38 in the week ended 28 August 2015. The Nifty fell 298 points or 3.59% to settle at 8,001.95.
The BSE Mid-Cap index tumbled 457.24 points or 4.07% to settle at 10,759.41. The BSE Small-Cap index shed 617.62 points or 5.31% to settle at 10,992.82. The decline in both these indices was higher than Sensex's decline in percentage terms.

A sell-off in oil, banking and metal shares led the carnage on the domestic bourses on Monday, 24 August 2015. The Sensex shed 1,624.51 points or 5.94% to settle at 25,741.56, its lowest closing level since 11 August 2014. The sell-off in Indian stocks was a part of a global rout in equities triggered by worries that China's economy is slowing at a larger pace than anticipated.

A rebound in global stocks aided recovery on the domestic bourses on Tuesday, 25 August 2015. The Sensex rose 290.82 points or 1.13% to settle at 26,032.38, its highest closing level since 21 August 2015.

Private sector banks, public sector oil marketing companies (PSU OMCs) and index heavyweights HDFC, L&T and Infosys led losses as key benchmark indices edged lower in choppy trade on Wednesday, 26 August 2015. The Sensex fell 317.72 points or 1.22% to settle at 25,714.66, its lowest closing level since 11 August 2014.

A rally in global markets sent Indian stocks surging on Thursday, 27 August 2015. The Sensex reclaimed the psychological 26,000 level. The Sensex garnered 516.53 points or 2.01% to settle at 26,231.19, its highest closing level since 21 August 2015.
Shares of oil exploration and production companies, metal and mining firms and telecom companies led modest gains for key benchmark indices on the last trading session of the week Friday, 28 August 2015. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 161.19 points or 0.61% to settle at 26,392.38, its highest closing level since 21 August 2015. The 50-unit CNX Nifty reclaimed the psychological 8,000 level.

Bharat Heavy Electricals (down 5.76%), GAIL (India) (down 7.04%), HDFC (down 2.27%), Hindalco Industries (down 4.99%), Hindustan Unilever (down 2.81%), ITC (down 0.71%), NTPC (down 1.49%), ONGC (down 4.84%) and Reliance Industries (down 3.97%) edged lower from the Sensex pack. Coal India (up 2.49%) edged higher from the Sensex pack.

Pharma stocks edged lower. Cipla (down 5.39% at Rs 659.75) and Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (down 5.68% at Rs 884.95) declined.

Lupin fell 0.67% at Rs 1,862.70. Lupin after market hours on Thursday, 27 August 2015, announced that the company has received final approval from the United States Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) to market a generic version of AstraZeneca Pharmaceuticals LP's (AstraZeneca) Prilosec Delayed-Release capsules 40mg. Prilosec has annual sales of $185 million in the United States, according to IMS MAT June 2015 data.

Dr Reddy's Laboratories dropped 1.48% at Rs 4,178.70. The company after market hours on Thursday, 27 August 2015, announced senior level changes in its global management structure.

Bank stocks edged lower. Axis Bank (down 3.28% at Rs 508.05), HDFC Bank (down 3.12% at Rs 1,027.75) and ICICI Bank (down 4.23% at Rs 283.55) declined.
State Bank of India (SBI) dropped 6.78% at Rs 249.25. The bank announced after market hours on Tuesday, 25 August 2015, that the Central Board of the bank has cleared a proposal of preferential allotment of equity shares to Government of India, the principal shareholder of the bank. The size of the proposed preferential issue is Rs 5393 crore.

Auto stocks edged lower. Bajaj Auto (down 5.73% at Rs 2,269.20), Hero MotoCorp (down 6.2% at Rs 2,400.95), Mahindra & Mahindra (down 6.74% at Rs 1,232.75) and Maruti Suzuki India (down 7.9% at Rs 4,208) edged lower. Tata Motors (up 2.29% at Rs 340.40) edged higher.

IT stocks edged lower. Infosys (down 3.46% at Rs 1,110.70), TCS (down 3.9% at Rs 2,570.65) and Wipro (down 2.28% at Rs 563.05) edged lower.

Bharti Airtel fell 2.01% at Rs 362.25. The company after market hours on Wednesday, 26 August 2015, announced that it has signed a definitive agreement to acquire 100% equity stake in Augere Wireless Broadband India (Augere), which holds 20 MHz of BWA spectrum in the telecom circles of Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.

L&T tumbled 7.08% at Rs 1,616.90. The company announced during trading hours on Wednesday, 26 August 2015, that the Power Transmission and Distribution Business unit of the company has won an order valued at Rs 864 crore in the Middle East market from Qatar General Electricity & Water Corporation. L&T announced during trading hours on Tuesday, 25 August 2015, that its Power Transmission & Distribution Business unit won orders worth Rs 1563 crore in both the international and domestic markets in July and August 2015.

Vedanta rose 1.68% at Rs 96.35. With reference to the news item titled, "Vedanta Kicks off process to shut Lanjigarh refinery," Vedanta clarified during trading hours on Thursday, 27 August 2015, that aluminium prices the world over have collapsed in the past few months and current indications are that this trend will continue. The company's Lanjigarh operations have additionally been affected by the non-availability of bauxite from Odisha. As a result, the company's cost of production is significantly higher and is impacting the viability of the Lanjigarh operations. The company said it may implement gradual closure of the operations at the Lanjigarh unit.

Vedanta announced during trading hours on Monday, 24 August 2015, that the company has allotted 20,000, 9.45% Secured, Rated, Non-Cumulative, Redeemable, Non-Convertible Debentures (NCDs) aggregating to Rs 2000 crore to State Bank of India (SBI). The NCDs are long term funds and this issuance will reduce the company's cost of funds, Vedanta said.

Tata Steel fell 3.68% at Rs 228.50. Tata Steel announced during trading hours on Thursday, 27 August 2015, it has decided to focus on production of hot rolled coils at its hot strip mill in Port Talbot in south Wales in the UK. Tata Steel further said that it will stop production at some coil processing facilities and also at the hot strip mill at Llanwern in south Wales in the UK. Tata Steel said that the decision has been taken because cheap imports and a strong British pound have created a challenging business environment. Employees at the Llanwern mill will be redeployed within the business and the company will discuss possible impact with contracting companies which provide services to this unit, the company said.

Meanwhile, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said in its Annual Report for 2014-15 published on Thursday, 27 August 2015, that inflation developments will warrant close and continuous monitoring as part of the overall disinflation strategy that requires inflation to be brought down to 5% by January 2017. Regarding the outlook for the economy for the current fiscal year, the RBI said uncertainty surrounding the progress and distribution of the monsoon remains a risk to the outlook for both growth and inflation. The RBI said that the government's resolve on fiscal consolidation should propel efforts to reach the target for the gross fiscal deficit for 2015-16 at 3.9% of GDP. The RBI said that the current account deficit is likely to be contained at below 1.5% of GDP in 2015-16.

The central bank said that the outlook for capital flows is highly uncertain in the backdrop of a widely anticipated normalisation of the US monetary policy later during calendar year 2015. Increase in US interest rates for the first time in a decade will trigger capital outflows from emerging markets, the RBI said.

Meanwhile, according to a summary of the electronic consultation that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) held with the Technical Advisory Committee on Monetary Policy in the run up to the monetary policy review on 4 August 2015, four out of seven external members of the committee recommended a cut in the repo rate at the 4 August policy review. Three of them suggested a reduction in repo rate by 25 basis points and one member suggested a 50 basis points reduction. Three members recommended a status quo in the repo rate, with one of them suggesting a reduction in the statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) by 50 basis points. The RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at the 4 August policy review.

Meanwhile, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley on Monday, 24 August 2015, said that though the Indian economy is not impervious to global events, yet the growth in manufacturing and services sector, as reflected by the increase in indirect tax collections and a fair monsoon indicate that the economy is showing strong revival and growth.

China's central bank, People's Bank of China (PBOC) on Wednesday, 26 August 2015, announced that it will inject 140 billion yuan ($21.80 billion) into the financial system through a short-term liquidity adjustment (SLO) operation. The SLO loans come with a 2.3% interest rate. Short-term liquidity operations were launched by the PBOC in 2013 to reduce fluctuations in liquidity and stabilize interbank funding costs.

On 25 August 2015, PBOC announced reduction in its one-year lending rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.6% effective 26 August 2015. It also cut deposit rate by 25 bps to 1.75% effective from 26 August 2015 and cut banks' reserve requirement ratio by 50 bps effective 6 September 2015. The PBOC also removed its control over fixed bank deposits with more than one-year maturity.

US GDP expanded by 3.7% between April and June, up from the previous estimate of 2.3%, according to the Commerce Department. Initial jobless claims dropped by 6,000 for the week ending in 22 August 2015 to a seasonally adjusted 271,000, according to the Department of Labor.

US new-home sales bounced back in July, while a separate report showed consumer confidence rising more than projected in August. The Conference Board, a private research group, said that its index of consumer confidence rose to 101.5 in August, bouncing back after a steep decline in July. Another data showed that orders for durable or long-lasting US goods rose 2% in July, led by demand for automobiles and military hardware.

Data released by the Destatis in Germany showed the economy continued to improve in the second quarter despite the Greek crisis. The gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.4% (after price, seasonal and calendar adjustment) in the second quarter of 2015 compared with the first quarter.

Friday, August 28, 2015

NIFTY INTRADAY VIEW ( 28 / 08 )

NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELNIFTY PROBABLE HIGHNIFTY PROBABLE LOW
R48132BULL82457503
R38053UP BREAKOUT80597688
R28024UP CAUTIONLEVEL FOR LONGLEVEL FOR SHORT
R18005SELL79407769
PIVOT7901 LAST DAYSTRONG BULL LOW VOLATALITY
S17893BUYOPEN7922
S27874DOWN CAUTIONHIGH7964.0
S37845DOWN BREAK OUTLOW7862.0
S47766BEARCLOSE7948.95
NIFTY MONTHLY LEVELNIFTY DAILY VOLATALITY1.3%
R26082LONGNIFTY WEEKLY VOLATALITY8.54%
R15976SHORT EXITNIFTY WEEKLY HIGH8322.0
S15765LONG EXITNIFTY WEEKLY LOW7667.0
S25659SHORTNIFTY DAY MEAN7994.5

Sunday, August 23, 2015

NIFTY INTRADAY VIEW ( 24 / 08 )

NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELNIFTY PROBABLE HIGHNIFTY PROBABLE LOW
R48457BULL85388166
R38390UP BREAKOUT84648240
R28365UP CAUTIONLEVEL FOR LONGLEVEL FOR SHORT
R18349SELL84488337
PIVOT8299 LAST DAYCONFUSION TREND
S18251BUYOPEN8305
S28235DOWN CAUTIONHIGH8322.0
S38210DOWN BREAK OUTLOW8225.0
S48143BEARCLOSE8299.95
NIFTY MONTHLY LEVELNIFTY DAILY VOLATALITY1.18%
R26082LONGNIFTY WEEKLY VOLATALITY3.72%
R15976SHORT EXITNIFTY WEEKLY HIGH8531.0
S15765LONG EXITNIFTY WEEKLY LOW8225.0
S25659SHORTNIFTY DAY MEAN8378

BANK NIFTY INTRADAY VIEW ( 24 / 08 )

BANKNIFTY INTRADAY LEVEL BANKNIFTY PROBABLE HIGHBANKNIFTY PROBABLE LOW
R418522BULL 1895617739
R318319UP BREAKOUT 1865218044
R218246UP CAUTION LEVEL FOR LONGLEVEL FOR SHORT
R118197SELL 1854518233
PIVOT18061  LAST DAYSTRONG BULL
S117917BUY OPEN17978
S217869DOWN CAUTION HIGH18119.0
S317795DOWN BREAK OUT LOW17842.0
S417593BEAR CLOSE18057.2

BANKNIFTY


The Banking Sector Index

 BANKNIFTY DAILY VOLATALITY1.55%
 BANKNIFTY WEEKLY VOLATALITY5.91%
 BANKNIFTY WEEKLY HIGH18896.0
 BANKNIFTY WEEKLY LOW17842.0
 BANKNIFTY DAY MEAN18369

THE WEEK AHEAD

Market may remain volatile ahead of F&O expiry


Macroeconomic data, the progress of monsoon rains, trend in global markets, investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement will dictate trend on the bourses. The market may remain volatile as traders roll over positions in the futures & options (F&O) segment from the near month August 2015 series to September 2015 series. The near month August 2015 derivatives contracts are set to expire on Thursday, 27 August 2015.

World equity markets and emerging market currencies have recently witnessed selling pressure as investors fretted over slowdown in China's economic growth. China's decision last week to devalue its yuan has intensified investor concerns that weakness in the world's second-largest economy will crimp global growth, particularly among China's northern Asian competitors in the exports market.

Closer home, investors continue to watch the progress of the monsoon rains which will have a bearing on food prices and rural income. India's weather office, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), said in its daily monsoon report issued on 20 August 2015 that for the country as a whole, the cumulative rainfall during this year's monsoon season was 9% below the Long Period Average (LPA) until 20 August 2015. The June-September southwest monsoon is critical for the country's agriculture because a considerable part of the country's farmland is dependent on the rains for irrigation.

In the US, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhart's speech to public pension forum, in Berkley, California is scheduled on Monday, 24 August 2015. The data on S&P/Case-Shiller home price index tracking monthly changes in the value of residential real estate in 20 metropolitan regions across the US for June 2015, new home sales measuring the number of newly constructed homes with a committed sale during the month of July 2015 and the Conference Board's results of a survey of consumer attitudes on the US economy for August 2015 will be out on Tuesday, 25 August 2015. Data on durable goods orders for July 2015 and the Markit Services PMI Flash providing advance insight into the services sector for August 2015 will be unveiled on Wednesday, 26 August 2015. Data on preliminary estimates for second quarter gross domestic product and the National Association of Realtors' pending home sales index for July 2015 will be out on Thursday, 27 August 2015.

THE WEEK THAT WAS

Market slides on China growth concerns

Weakness in global stocks triggered by concerns about slowdown in China's economic growth weighed on Indian equities in the week ended 21 August 2015. China's decision last week to devalue its yuan has intensified investor concerns that weakness in the world's second-largest economy will crimp global economic growth. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, fell below the psychological 28,000 mark. Key indices fell in four out of five trading sessions of the week.

The S&P BSE Sensex tumbled 701.24 points or 2.49% to settle at 27,366.07 in the week ended 21 August 2015. The 50-unit CNX Nifty lost 218.60 points or 2.56% to settle at 8,299.95.

The BSE Mid-Cap index dropped 2.07%. The BSE Small-Cap index lost 1.32%. The drop in both these indices was lower than the Sensex's decline in percentage terms.
Trading for the week began on a negative note. The Sensex shed 189.04 points or 0.67% to settle at 27,878.27 on Monday, 17 August 2015, its lowest closing level since 13 August 2015.

Key benchmark indices edged lower for the second day in a row on Tuesday, 18 August 2015. The Sensex dropped 46.73 points or 0.17% to settle at 27,831.54 on that day, its lowest closing level since 13 August 2015.

Key benchmark indices registered modest gains on Wednesday, 19 August 2015. The Sensex rose 100.10 points or 0.36% to settle at 27,931.64, its highest closing level since 14 August 2015.

Key benchmark indices slumped on Thursday, 20 August 2015, as weakness in global stocks weighed on sentiment on the domestic bourses. The Sensex dropped 323.82 points or 1.16% to settle 27,607.82, its lowest closing level since 13 August 2015.

Key benchmark indices edged lower on Friday, 21 August 2015, with sentiment on the domestic bourses hit adversely by a sharp slide in Asian stocks. The Sensex shed 241.75 points or 0.88% to settle at 27,366.07, its lowest closing level since 19 June 2015.

From the 30-share Sensex pack, 23 stocks fell and the rest rose in the week ended Friday, 21 August 2015.

Auto stocks edged lower. Hero MotoCorp (down 5.68%), Bajaj Auto (down 5.92%), Maruti Suzuki India (down 0.21%), TVS Motor Company (down 1.64%), and Mahindra & Mahindra (down 3,97%) edged lower.

Tata Motors slumped 6.36%. Tata Motors' British luxury car unit Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) in a press release issued on 20 August 2015 announced that at the time of explosions in Tianjin in China, approximately 5,800 vehicles of JLR that had recently been shipped to China were stored at various locations at Tianjin port. JLR believes that many of these vehicles may have been damaged. However, access to facilities near the site of the explosion remains restricted and therefore it is presently unable to quantify the number of units affected due to the explosion, JLR said. JLR said it will continue to monitor the situation and work to minimise the impact on its customers and the business. Tata Motors made the announcement on 21 August 2015.

Among IT stocks, TCS fell 0.69%. Wipro rose 0.3%.

Infosys rose 0.14%. Infosys on 20 August 2015 announced the launch of three enhanced service offerings in Design Thinking, Platforms and Knowledge-Based IT. Infosys announced that its new service offerings are aimed at helping clients address a non-disruptive renewal and simplification of their existing landscapes. These services will also help clients in introduction of new offerings and business models in a dynamic business environment and create a culture of innovation in their organization, Infosys said in a statement. These three new service offerings will help bring together existing Infosys services to serve strategic priorities of global businesses, the Indian IT major said.

Infosys also plans to offer platforms to address the Internet of Things (IoT) and Application Programming Interface (API) requirements of its clients. Dr. Vishal Sikka, Chief Executive Officer, Infosys said that the launch of the three new service offerings is an important step to further accelerate the execution of the company's strategy to renew existing services and move into entirely new areas.

Lupin jumped 4.52%. The stock was the biggest gainer from the Sensex pack. Lupin on 20 August 2015 announced that the company has received final approval from the United States Food and Drugs Administration (USFDA) for its Fenofibrate Tablets 54 mg and 160 mg, a generic version of Teva's Fenofibrate Tablets, 54 mg and 160 mg. Lupin's US subsidiary, Lupin Pharmaceuticals Inc. would commence promoting the product shortly in the US. The drug is indicated as an adjunct to diet to reduce elevated LDLC, Total-C, TG and Apo B, and to increase HDL-C in adult patients with primary hypercholesterolemia or mixed dyslipidemia and for treatment of adult patients with severe hypertriglyceridemia. Fenofibrate Tablets 54 mg and 160 mg clocked annual sales of $156 million in the United States, as per IMS MAT June 2015 data.

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries rose 4.38%. Dr Reddy's Laboratories shed 0.33%.
Among metal stocks, Hindalco Industries dropped 7.77%. Tata Steel rose 0.06%.
Vedanta slumped 11.61%. The stock was the biggest loser from the Sensex pack. Vedanta on 19 August 2015 reiterated that its subsidiary Bharat Aluminium Company (BALCO) has decided to close down its Rolled Product business due to a steep fall in aluminium prices globally, negative margins and huge imports. The Rolled Product Business produced 46,000 tonnes of the product in the year ended 31 March 2015, Vedanta said.

Bank stocks fell. State Bank of India shed 0.39%. The government on 14 August 2015 announced capital infusion of Rs 5531 crore in SBI.

Among private bank stocks, HDFC Bank (down 3.73%) and Axis Bank (down 8%) and ICICI Bank (up 2.05%) edged lower.

Reliance Industries (RIL) shed 6.18%. RIL on 20 August 2015 announced that it has priced an offering of $225 million 2.512% Notes due 2026 guaranteed by the Export-Import Bank of the United States (Ex-Im Bank). The Notes are being issued at par and will bear a fixed interest rate of 2.512% per annum, with interest payable semi-annually in arrears and shall rank pari passu with all other unsecured and unsubordinated obligations of the company, RIL said.

The proceeds of the issue will be utilized by the company to replace a portion of the Ex-Im Bank guaranteed floating rate loan which was availed to finance capital expenditure at the company's Jamnagar site in India, RIL said in a statement.
Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on 19 August 2015 granted in-principle approval to a total of 11 applicants including RIL for setting up payments banks.
Meanwhile, global credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service reportedly trimmed its forecast for India's economic expansion for the current fiscal year to 7% from its previous forecast of 7.5% due to drier-than-usual weather conditions. The below-average rainfall has clouded prospects for farm production, which could hurt rural incomes and weigh on consumer demand, Moody's has reportedly said in a report released on 18 August 2015. Moody's has predicted 7.5% growth in India GDP for the fiscal year starting from 1 April 2016.

In global news, Chinese manufacturing activity shrank for a sixth straight month in August. The Caixin/Markit flash purchasing managers' index dropped to 47.1 in August from July's final reading of 47.8. The index remained below the threshold of 50 that separates expansion from contraction. August's reading was the lowest since March 2009.

The International Monetary Fund's (IMF) executive board on 19 August 2015 approved an extension of the current basket of reserve currencies included in its special drawing rights to 30 September 2016. The move confirms an earlier proposal for a delay in the five-year reshuffling of the basket, which currently doesn't include the yuan. The move was another blow to the Chinese currency, which suffered its biggest one day loss in two decades last week after the devaluation of the currency.
The Federal Reserve is inching closer to the first interest rate increase in nearly a decade, minutes of the central bankers' latest meeting indicated on 19 August 2015. The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) 28-29 July meeting did not mention any timetable, but did state that most members believed that economic conditions were "approaching" those that would warrant a rate increase.

Thursday, August 20, 2015

NIFTY INTRADAY VIEW 21 / 08 / 2015

NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELNIFTY PROBABLE HIGHNIFTY PROBABLE LOW
R48523BULL85458295
R38459UP BREAKOUT84958345
R28435UP CAUTIONLEVEL FOR LONGLEVEL FOR SHORT
R18420SELL85168406
PIVOT8411 LAST DAYVERY STRONG BEAR
S18326BUYOPEN8471
S28310DOWN CAUTIONHIGH8501.0
S38287DOWN BREAK OUTLOW8360.0
S48223BEARCLOSE8372.75
NIFTY MONTHLY LEVELNIFTY DAILY VOLATALITY1.69%
R26082LONGNIFTY WEEKLY VOLATALITY2.05%
R15976SHORT EXITNIFTY WEEKLY HIGH8531.0
S15765LONG EXITNIFTY WEEKLY LOW8360.0
S25659SHORTNIFTY DAY MEAN8445.5

Wednesday, August 19, 2015

NIFTY INTRADAY VIEW ( 19 / 08 )

NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELNIFTY PROBABLE HIGHNIFTY PROBABLE LOW
R48568BULL86248351
R38526UP BREAKOUT85568419
R28510UP CAUTIONLEVEL FOR LONGLEVEL FOR SHORT
R18500SELL85298414
PIVOT8475 LAST DAYBEAR WITH LV
S18433BUYOPEN8506
S28423DOWN CAUTIONHIGH8526.0
S38408DOWN BREAK OUTLOW8434.0
S48366BEARCLOSE8466.55
NIFTY MONTHLY LEVELNIFTY DAILY VOLATALITY1.09%
R26082LONGNIFTY WEEKLY VOLATALITY2.31%
R15976SHORT EXITNIFTY WEEKLY HIGH8531.0
S15765LONG EXITNIFTY WEEKLY LOW8338.0
S25659SHORTNIFTY DAY MEAN8434.5

Monday, August 17, 2015

NIFTY INTRADAY VIEW ( 18 / 08 )

NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELNIFTY PROBABLE HIGHNIFTY PROBABLE LOW
R48589BULL85868315
R38542UP BREAKOUT85188383
R28525UP CAUTIONLEVEL FOR LONGLEVEL FOR SHORT
R18514SELL84978383
PIVOT8479 LAST DAYBEAR WITH LV
S18441BUYOPEN8530
S28429DOWN CAUTIONHIGH8531.0
S38413DOWN BREAK OUTLOW8428.0
S48366BEARCLOSE8477.3
NIFTY MONTHLY LEVELNIFTY DAILY VOLATALITY1.22%
R26082LONGNIFTY WEEKLY VOLATALITY2.61%
R15976SHORT EXITNIFTY WEEKLY HIGH8556.0
S15765LONG EXITNIFTY WEEKLY LOW8338.0
S25659SHORTNIFTY DAY MEAN8447

Sunday, August 16, 2015

NIFTY INTRADAY VIEW ( 17 / 08 )

NIFTY INTRADAY LEVELNIFTY PROBABLE HIGHNIFTY PROBABLE LOW
R48705BULL86378255
R38624UP BREAKOUT85618331
R28595UP CAUTIONLEVEL FOR LONGLEVEL FOR SHORT
R18576SELL84698353
PIVOT8468 LAST DAYVERY STRONG BULL
S18462BUYOPEN8402
S28442DOWN CAUTIONHIGH8530.0
S38413DOWN BREAK OUTLOW8381.0
S48333BEARCLOSE8518.55
NIFTY MONTHLY LEVELNIFTY DAILY VOLATALITY1.78%
R26082LONGNIFTY WEEKLY VOLATALITY3.41%
R15976SHORT EXITNIFTY WEEKLY HIGH8622.0
S15765LONG EXITNIFTY WEEKLY LOW8338.0
S25659SHORTNIFTY DAY MEAN8480

THE WEEK AHEAD

Global cues, progress of monsoon to dictate market trend


Trend in global markets, investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs), the movement of rupee against the dollar, crude oil price movement and the progress of monsoon rains will also dictate trend on the bourses in the near term.

Shares of public sector oil marketing companies (PSU OMCs) will be in focus as they undertake a review of fuel prices during the middle of the month. The review takes place during the middle of the month and on the last day of the month based on the average imported oil price in the preceding fortnight.

Investors continue to watch the progress of the monsoon rains which will have a bearing on food prices and rural income. India's weather office, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), said in a weekly report issued on 13 August 2015, that the rainfall was 31% below normal for the country as a whole during the period from 6 August to 12 August 2015. In its separate daily monsoon update issued on 13 August 2015, IMD said that for the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this year's monsoon season was 9% below the Long Period Average (LPA) until 13 August 2015.

The June-September southwest monsoon is critical for the country's agriculture because a considerable part of the country's farmland is dependent on the rains for irrigation.

Among global events, Japan releases second-quarter gross domestic product data on Monday, 17 August 2015.

On Wednesday, 19 August 2015, the US Federal Reserve releases minutes from its July 28-29 meeting that may shed light on the debate policy makers are having over the timing of the first increase in the nation's benchmark interest rate since 2006.
All eyes will be on Greece ahead of debt repayment deadline of 20 August 2015. The country must make a 3.2 billion-euro ($3.6 billion) payment to the European Central Bank by 20 August 2015. Greece's creditors are seeking to reach an agreement on an aid program in time for the country to make the payment.