Sunday, August 14, 2016

THE WEEK THAT WAS

Macro economic data may decide trend on the bourses


Macroeconomic data, progress of monsoon rains, trend in global markets, investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs), the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement will dictate trend on the bourses in the week ahead. The coming week is a truncated trading week as stock markets will remain close on Monday, 15 August 2016 on account of Independence Day.

Shares of Cipla will on Tuesday, 16 August 2016, react to its Q1 results announced after market hours on Friday, 12 August 2016. PowerGrid Corporation of India will announce its Q1 results on Tuesday, 16 August 2016.

Key indices will on Tuesday, 16 August 2016, react to the key macro economic data, namely industrial production data for June 2016 and the consumer price index for July 2016, which are slated to be announced by the government after market hours on Friday, 12 August 2016. India's industrial production (IIP) increased 1.2% in May 2016 over May 2015. CPI inflation accelerated to 5.77% in June 2016 from 5.76% in May 2016.

The government will announce monthly inflation data based on wholesale price index (WPI) for July on Tuesday, 16 August 2016. On provisional basis, WPI had risen to 1.62% in June 2016 as compared with 0.79% in May 2016. The reading stood at -2.13% in June 2015.

Investors will continue to track the progress of monsoon rains, which has so far shown an above average performance. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) in its weekly monsoon update issued on 11 August 2016 said that for the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this year's monsoon season so far from 1 June to 10 August was 3% above the long period average (LPA).

PSU OMCs will be in focus as they will undertake fuel price review during the middle of this month. PSU OMCs undertake fuel price review during the middle of the month and at the month-end every month based on the trend in international oil market.
On global front, in US, housing starts report for July, reflecting the commitment of builders to new construction activity in that month is scheduled for release on Tuesday, 16 August 2016. The data on index of industrial production for July, showing how much factories, mines and utilities produced in that month will also be out on the same day.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve will issue on Wednesday, 17 August 2016, minutes of its last monetary policy meeting. The Fed had opted to keep interest rates at ultra-low level after the conclusion of a two-day monetary policy meeting, which was last held on 28 July 2016. On the same day, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard will give a speech on the economy and monetary policy, followed by audience and media questions and answers session in St. Louis. On Thursday, 18 August 2016, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams will give a speech on the economic outlook in Anchorage, Alaska followed by audience and media questions and answers session.

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