Saturday, July 02, 2016

THE WEEK AHEAD

Economic data, monsoon progress will be watched


Macroeconomic data, trend in global markets, investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs), the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement will dictate market trend in the near term. The Indian stock market will remain shut on Wednesday, 6 July 2016, on account of Id-Ul-Fitr (Ramzan Id).

Investors will closely watch how the monsoon advances in the country. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday, 30 June 2016, said that during the week ended 29 June 2015, southwest monsoon further advanced into some more parts of north Arabian Sea, south Gujarat state, West Madhya Pradesh & East Uttar Pradesh and some parts of East Rajasthan. During the week, rainfall was above normal by 1% over the country as a whole. Rainfall activity was above normal over central India and south Peninsula during the week, IMD said.

IMD in its second stage forecast on 3 June 2016 had stuck to its preliminary forecast of above normal rains for the 2016 southwest monsoon season (June to September). Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 106% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of plus/minus 4%, IMD had said.

Among domestic macro economic data, the Nikkei India Services PMI will be declared on Tuesday, 5 July 2016. The Nikkei India Services PMI fell sharply to 51 in May of 2016 from 53.70 in April.

On the global front, US market will remain shut on Monday, 4 July 2016, on account of Independence Day.

UK Construction PMI data for June 2016 will be unveiled on Monday, 4 July 2016. The data gives an indication about the health of the construction section in the UK.

UK Services PMI data for June 2016 will be unveiled on Tuesday, 5 July 2016.

US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change for June will be unveiled on Wednesday, 6 July 2016. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for June will be unveiled on Wednesday, 6 July 2016.

UK Manufacturing Production data for May will be unveiled on Thursday, 7 July 2016. Data on crude oil inventories in the US will be unveiled on Thursday, 7 July 2016.
US Nonfarm Payrolls data will be unveiled on Friday, 8 July 2016. US Unemployment Rate data will be unveiled on Friday, 8 July 2016.

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