Wednesday, July 13, 2016

THE END SESSION ( 13 / 07 / 2016 )

Sensex gains for third straight day


In what was a lacklustre trading session, key benchmark indices settled near the flat line after movement was confined to a narrow range around the flat line throughout the session. A divergent trend was witnessed on the domestic bourses as the barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex settled with mild gains and the Nifty 50 index closed a tad lower. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, rose 7.04 points or 0.03% to settle at 27,815.18. The Nifty fell 1.55 points or 0.02% to settle at 8,519.50. The Sensex gained for the third straight session. The Nifty snapped two-day winning streak today, 13 July 2016. The Sensex hit highest closing level in almost eleven months.

The Sensex rose 7.04 points or 0.03% to settle at 27,815.18, its highest closing level since 19 August 2015. The index gained 120.62 points or 0.43% at the day's high of 27,928.76. The index fell 56 points or 0.2% at the day's low of 27,752.14.

The Nifty fell 1.55 points or 0.02% to settle at 8,519.50, its lowest closing level since 11 July 2016. The index fell 27.50 points or 0.32% at the day's low of 8,493.55. The index gained 29.20 points or 0.34% at the day's high of 8,550.25, its highest level since 11 August 2015.

The market breadth indicating the overall health of the market was weak. On BSE, 1,727 shares fell and 1,018 shares rose. A total of 164 shares were unchanged. The BSE Mid-Cap index shed 0.55%. The BSE Small-Cap index dropped 0.82%. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.

The total turnover on BSE amounted to Rs 3931 crore, higher than turnover of Rs 3310.19 crore registered during the previous trading session.

Among sectoral indices on BSE, the S&P BSE Realty index (down 2.08%), the S&P BSE Bankex (down 0.29%), the S&P BSE Consumer Durables index (down 0.81%), the S&P BSE Basic Materials index (up 0.01%), the S&P BSE Finance index (down 0.58%), the S&P BSE Auto index (down 0.67%), the S&P BSE Industrials index (down 0.59%), the S&P BSE Capital Goods index (down 0.61%), the S&P BSE FMCG index (down 0.08%), the S&P BSE Power index (down 0.88%), the S&P BSE Consumer Discretionary Goods & Services index (down 0.63%), the S&P BSE Utilities index (down 0.71%) and the S&P BSE Healthcare index (down 0.46%) underperformed the Sensex.

The S&P BSE Metal index (up 1.83%), the S&P BSE Energy index (up 0.65%), the S&P BSE IT index (up 0.96%), the S&P BSE Telecom index (up 0.09%), the S&P BSE Teck index (up 0.75%), and the S&P BSE Oil & Gas index (up 0.36%) outperformed the Sensex.

Index heavyweight and software major Infosys advanced 1.46% to Rs 1,193.15. The stock hit high of Rs 1,195 and low of Rs 1,175.10 in intraday trade. Infosys is scheduled to announce its Q1 June 2016 results on Friday, 15 July 2016.

Bank stocks fell. Among private bank stocks, HDFC Bank (down 0.38%), Federal Bank (down 2.4%), Axis Bank (down 0.92%), ICICI Bank (down 0.11%), IndusInd Bank (down 2.08%) and Yes Bank (down 0.37%) declined. Kotak Mahindra Bank rose 1.49%.
Among PSU bank stocks, Corporation Bank (down 2.04%), Syndicate Bank (down 2.94%), Punjab National Bank (down 1.03%), Bank of Baroda (down 0.9%), IDBI Bank (down 2.63%), Bank of India (down 1.89%) and Union Bank of India (down 2.5%) dropped. State Bank of India (SBI) (up 0.15%) and Canara Bank (up 0.5%) rose.

Andhra Bank fell 2.8% to Rs 60.75 as the stock turned ex-dividend today, 13 July 2016 for dividend of Rs 0.50 per share for the year ended 31 March 2016 (FY 2016). Before turning ex-dividend, the stock offered a dividend yield of 0.8% based on its closing price of Rs 62.50 on the BSE yesterday, 12 July 2016.

Stocks of companies involved in oil exploration & production activities rose as global crude oil prices jumped in the previous session. Shares of Reliance Industries (RIL) gained 0.63%. Higher crude oil prices will result in higher realization from crude sales for oil exploration firms.

ONGC and Oil India rose on reports the government has approved 25 paise per litre hike in kerosene prices per month till April 2017. ONGC rose 3.01%. The stock price of Oil India gained 1.67%. According to reports, the government has asked state-owned oil marketing companies (OMCs) -- Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), HPCL and BPCL -- to raise the price of subsidised kerosene by 25 paise per litre till April 2017 to bring it closer to the market-determined price. The first hike in prices of 25 paise a litre took place on 1 July 2016. The decision to hike kerosene prices would benefit OMCs as well as upstream companies such as ONGC and Oil India as kerosene and LPG are sold well below their cost of production. Media reports suggest that currently, under-recoveries on kerosene and LPG are Rs 13.10 a litre and Rs 116 per cylinder, respectively. The government gives a subsidy of Rs 12 per litre on kerosene while the balance is borne by upstream petroleum companies such as Oil India and ONGC. Among OMCs, IOC, with more than 67% market share, will gain the most.
In the past two fiscals, the government incurred under-recoveries of Rs 24799 crore and Rs 11496 crore on kerosene, reports suggested.

Shares of public sector oil marketing companies (PSU OMCs) mostly declined as crude oil prices surged in the previous session. HPCL dropped 1.6%. Shares of BPCL fell 2.67% to Rs 545.10. Indian Oil Corporation rose 0.47%. Higher crude oil prices could increase under-recoveries of PSU OMCs on domestic sale of LPG and kerosene at controlled prices. The government has already freed pricing of petrol and diesel.
In the global commodities markets, Brent for September settlement was currently down 87 cents at $47.60 a barrel. The contract had surged $2.22 a barrel or 4.8% to settle at $48.47 a barrel during the previous trading session.

Cairn India and Vedanta rallied, with the stocks extending recent gains on media reports that the Life Insurance Corporation of India has given its informal acceptance for the proposed merger of Cairn India with Vedanta. Shares of Cairn India rose 2.4% at Rs 166.45. The stock had surged 8.33% to settle at Rs 162.55 yesterday, 12 July 2016. Shares of Vedanta rose 2.95%. Reports suggested that the Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) has given its informal acceptance for the proposed merger of Cairn India with Vedanta. LIC holds 9.06% stake in Cairn India as per the shareholding pattern as on 30 June 2016. It may be recalled that the Indian government had in April this year said that it won't allow the merger of Cairn India with Vedanta unless Cairn India resolves its tax issue of Rs 10247 crore. Vedanta had in June 2015 announced merger of Cairn India in a $2.3 billion all-share deal to create India's largest diversified natural resources firm.

Cairn India, a part of the Vedanta group, is one of the largest independent oil and gas exploration and production companies in India.

Shares of steel manufacturer, Tata Steel jumped 4.47% to Rs 357.70.

Car major Maruti Suzuki India lost 1.14% as Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar. A strong yen adversely impacts Maruti Suzuki India's (Maruti) operating profit margin. Maruti pays royalty to its Japanese parent Suzuki Motor Corporation in yen terms for some of its earlier models. Maruti has reportedly started paying royalty to its Japanese parent in rupee terms on all new models from 1 April 2016. Maruti also has an exposure to the yen to the extent it imports raw materials from Japan.

Bharat Heavy Electricals rose 2.35% on reports Bangladesh-India Friendship Power Company inked the deal with the company for constructing the super thermal plant at Bangladesh's southwestern Rampal near the Sundarbans. According to reports, Bangladesh and India yesterday, 12 July 2016, signed a landmark deal for the construction of a 1,320 megawatt coal fired power plant, the biggest project under bilateral cooperation that would mark the transition from electricity export to generation level. Bangladesh-India Friendship Power Company (BIFPCL), the joint venture enterprise inked the deal with Bharat Heavy Electricals (Bhel), which was selected under an open international tender for constructing the super thermal plant at Bangladesh's southwestern Rampal near the Sundarbans, reports suggested. India's Exim Bank will provide $1.49 billion for the project, scheduled to start generating power in 2019, as per reports.

The Sensex gained for the third day in a row today, 13 July 2016. The Sensex has risen 688.28 points or 2.53% in three sessions, from a close of 27,126.90 on 8 July 2016. The Sensex has risen 815.46 points or 3.02% in this month so far (till 13 July 2016). The Sensex has risen 1,697.64 points or 6.49% in calendar year 2016 so far (till 13 July 2016). From a 52-week low of 22,494.61 hit on 29 February 2016, the barometer index has risen 5,320.57 points or 23.65%. The Sensex is off 763.15 points or 2.67% from a 52-week high of 28,578.33 hit on 23 July 2015. The Sensex is off 2,209.56 points or 7.35% from a record high of 30,024.74 hit on 4 March 2015.
On the macro front, data released by government after market hours yesterday, 12 July 2016, showed that India's industrial production increased 1.2% in May 2016 over May 2015, while snapping 1.35% dip recorded in the previous month. The manufacturing sector production rebounded 0.7%, after two months of decline, contributing to the rise in industrial output in May 2016.

Another data released by government after market hours yesterday, 12 July 2016, showed that inflation based on the consumer price index (CPI) accelerated to 5.77% in June 2016 from 5.76% in May 2016. Increase in food prices was responsible for the acceleration in consumer price inflation. The consumer food price index rose to 7.79% in June 2016 from 7.47% in May 2016. The core CPI inflation fell to 4.39% in June 2016 from 4.49% in May 2016.

In overseas stock markets, European stocks edged higher as Brexit worries receded. In the UK, the FTSE 100 index was currently up 0.15%. Britain's interior minister Theresa May is set to take over as the country's prime minister today, 13 July 2016, evening avoiding months of uncertainty in the wake of the Brexit vote.

Earlier during the global day, Asian stocks rose, adding to the gains in the past few sessions amid improved risk appetite following the positive lead overnight from Wall Street. Japanese shares extended strong gains registered early this week after Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said that the government is planning to introduce a comprehensive and bold economic stimulus. The Nikkei 225 Average ended 0.84% higher. The Nikkei surged early this week after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's ruling-coalition victory in the upper-house election stoked speculation of more fiscal stimulus. Meanwhile, Suga today, 13 July 2016, denied a local media report that said aides to Prime Minister Abe are considering the so-called helicopter money that involves a central bank directly buying government bonds to finance government spending or tax cuts as a possible policy measure.

US stocks edged higher yesterday, 12 July 2016, with Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index, both, finishing at record high, reflecting hopes about stimulus from Japan and China along with optimism that the Bank of England will lower rates to help the UK economy sidestep the pitfalls of the so-called Brexit.

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