Wednesday, June 08, 2016

THE END SESSION ( 08 / 06 )

Market crawls higher


In what was a lackluster trading session, the two key benchmark indices registered minuscule gains. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, rose 10.99 points or 0.04% to settle at 27,020.66. The Nifty 50 index rose 6.60 points or 0.08% to settle at 8,273.05. The Sensex retained the psychologically important 27,000 mark. The Sensex and the Nifty edged higher for the second trading session in a row. With minuscule gains, the Sensex and the Nifty, both, attained their highest closing level in more than 7 months.

Defense sector stocks rose after an India-US joint statement during official visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the US said that the leaders of the two countries decided to expand bilateral defense cooperation. L&T edged higher after the company announced that its construction arm along with its joint venture partner in Qatar, Al Balagh Trading & Contracting, has signed a contract to build a 40,000 seater stadium in Qatar for the 2022 Fifa World Cup. Shares of public sector oil marketing companies fell on rise in global crude oil prices.

In overseas stock markets, European market edged lower on concerns about global economic slowdown. The World Bank yesterday, 7 June 2016, cut its its 2016 global growth forecast to 2.4% from the 2.9% pace projected in January, citing sluggish growth in advanced economies, stubbornly low commodity prices, weak global trade and diminishing capital flows. In an environment of anemic growth, the global economy faces mounting risks, including a further slowdown in major emerging markets, the World Bank said.

Earlier during the global day, Asian stocks ended on a mixed note as weak Chinese export data offset a brightening energy sector outlook and an expected delay in interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve. Data showed that China's exports fell more than expected in May as global demand remained stubbornly weak, but imports beat forecasts, adding to hopes that the economy may be stabilising. In dollar terms, China's exports fell 4.1% and imports dropped 0.4% from a year earlier.

Separately, China's central bank People's Bank of China said it was keeping its economic growth forecast for 2016 year steady at 6.8% but it now expects exports to contract and fixed asset investment to grow more strongly than previously forecast. Meanwhile, Japan's economy grew faster than initially estimated in the first quarter. Japan's economy expanded at an annualized 1.9% rate in the first quarter of this year, revised up from a preliminary reading of 1.7% growth.

The Sensex rose 10.99 points or 0.04% to settle at 27,020.66, its highest closing level since 28 October 2015. The index rose 95.74 points or 0.35% at the day's high of 27,105.41. The index shed 35.96 points or 0.13% at the day's low of 26,973.71.

The Nifty 50 index rose 6.60 points or 0.08% to settle at 8,273.05, its highest closing level since 23 October 2015. The index rose 22.45 points or 0.27% at the day's high of 8,288.90. The index fell 14.40 points or 0.17% at the day's low of 8,252.05.

The market breadth indicating the overall health of the market was strong. On BSE, 1,584 shares rose and 1,048 shares declined. A total of 162 shares were unchanged. The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 0.52%. The BSE Small-Cap index rose 0.89%. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.

Among the sectoral indices, the S&P BSE Power index (up 1.77%), the S&P BSE Capital Goods index (up 1.76%), the S&P BSE Utilities index (up 1.33%), the S&P BSE Industrials index (up 1.18%), the S&P BSE Telecom index (up 0.74%), the S&P BSE Basic Materials index (up 0.72%), the S&P BSE Auto index (up 0.44%), the S&P BSE Finance index (up 0.36%), the S&P BSE Realty index (up 0.31%), the S&P BSE Consumer Durables index (up 0.29%), the S&P BSE Oil & Gas index (up 0.24%), the S&P BSE Consumer Discretionary Goods & Services index (up 0.21%), the S&P BSE Energy index (up 0.14%), the S&P BSE Metal index (up 0.14%), the S&P BSE Bankex (up 0.12%), the S&P BSE FMCG index (up 0.12%) and the S&P BSE Sensex index (up 0.04%), outperformed the Sensex. The S&P BSE Healthcare index (down 0.09%), the S&P BSE Teck index (down 0.47%) and the S&P BSE IT index (down 0.61%), underperformed the Sensex.

Index heavyweight and IT major Infosys fell 1.50% to Rs 1,238.30. The stock hit a high of Rs 1,264.95 and a low of Rs 1,236 in intraday trade.

Stocks of state-run banks edged higher. Indian Bank (up 6.40%), Punjab National Bank (up 3.93%), Bank of India (up 3.09%), Central Bank of India (up 2.44%), IDBI Bank (up 2.43%), Union Bank of India (up 2.42%), UCO Bank (up 2.31%), Allahabad Bank (up 2.30%), Corporation Bank (up 2%), Punjab and Sind Bank (up 1.94%), Andhra Bank (up 1.82%), Bank of Baroda (up 1.79%), Syndicate Bank (up 1.75%), United Bank of India (up 1.69%), Dena Bank (up 1.37%), Vijaya Bank (up 0.97%), State Bank of India (up 0.29%) and Bank of Maharashtra (up 0.18%), edged higher. Canara Bank fell 0.94%.

Stocks of private sector banks witnessed a mixed trend. City Union Bank (up 3.02%), Federal Bank (up 2.29%), ICICI Bank (up 1.48%), IndusInd Bank (up 0.96%) and Axis Bank (up 0.89%), edged higher. HDFC Bank (down 1%), Yes Bank (down 1.24%) and Kotak Mahindra Bank (down 1.47%), edged lower.

Power generation stocks were in demand. JSW Energy (up 13.49%), Jaiprakash Power Ventures (up 7.18%), GMR Infrastructure (up 2.78%), Tata Power (up 2.72%), Adani Power (up 2.50%), Reliance Infrastructure (up 1.88%), NHPC (up 1.45%), Reliance Power (up 1.26%), Torrent Power (up 0.20%) and CESC (up 0.19%), edged higher. NTPC fell 0.07%

Shares of oil exploration and production companies were mixed. Cairn India (up 1.41%) and ONGC (up 1.27%) edged higher. Oil India (down 0.31%), Reliance Industries (down 0.05%) edged lower.

Shares of public sector oil marketing companies fell on rise in global crude oil prices. Indian Oil Corporation (down 1.13%) and HPCL (down 0.15%) edged lower. BPCL rose 0.26%. Higher crude oil prices could increase under-recoveries of PSU OMCs on domestic sale of LPG and kerosene at controlled prices. On the flip side, a recovery in the rupee against the dollar has eased concerns about higher crude import costs. A weak rupee raises the cost of imports. The government has already freed pricing of petrol and diesel.

In global commodities markets, Brent for August settlement was currently up 47 cents at $51.91 a barrel. The contract had risen 89 cents or 1.76% to settle at $51.44 a barrel during the previous trading session.

In the foreign exchange market, the rupee edged higher against the dollar. The partially convertible rupee was currently hovering at 66.6975, compared with closing of 66.78 during the previous trading session.

Cement shares edged higher. Ambuja Cements (up 1.98%), UltraTech Cement (up 1.24%) and ACC (up 0.33%), edged higher.

Grasim Industries rose 0.33%. Grasim has exposure to cement sector through its holding in UltraTech Cement.

Defense sector stocks rose after an India-US joint statement during official visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the US said that the leaders of the two countries decided to expand bilateral defense cooperation. Reliance Defence and Engineering (up 10.32%), Punj Lloyd (up 8.68%), Astra Microwave Products (up 5.60%), Bharat Electronics (up 6.25%), Zen Technologies (up 0.23%), Bharat Forge (up 2.40%), Tata Power Company (up 2.72%) edged higher.

In a bilateral summit, Modi and US President Barack Obama have expressed their desire to explore agreements which would facilitate further expansion of bilateral defense cooperation in practical ways. In this regard, the leaders have welcomed the finalization of the text of the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA). The United States has recognized India as a major defense partner. The United States will continue to work toward facilitating technology sharing with India to a level commensurate with that of its closest allies and partners, the joint statement said.

The leaders reached an understanding under which India would receive license-free access to a wide range of dual-use technologies in conjunction with steps that India has committed to take to advance its export control objectives. In support of India's 'Make In India' initiative and to support the development of robust defense industries and their integration into the global supply chain, the United States will continue to facilitate the export of goods and technologies, consistent with US law, for projects, programs and joint ventures in support of official US-India defense cooperation. The leaders also committed to enhance cooperation in support of the Government of India's Make in India initiative and expand the co-production and co-development of technologies under the Defense Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI).

L&T rose 1.52% to Rs 1,510.65 after the company announced that its construction arm along with its joint venture (JV) partner in Qatar, Al Balagh Trading & Contracting, has signed a contract to build a 40,000 seater stadium in Qatar for the 2022 Fifa World Cup. The contract for the project is for a combined value of $360 million and is slated to be completed by 2019. The scope for the stadium includes main works and construction of the site, following completion of the enabling works, L&T said in a statement. The announcement was made after market hours yesterday, 7 June 2016

Meanwhile, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Raghuram Rajan was quoted as saying that the RBI will have room to cut interest rates if the central bank gains confidence in reaching its 5% target for consumer inflation by March 2017. The RBI had kept policy rates unchanged after its monetary policy review yesterday, 7 June 2016.

Meanwhile, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) today, 8 June 2016, announced the arrival of the monsoon rains in Kerala. That marks the beginning of the 4-month June-September southwest monsoon season in the country. IMD has forecast above normal rains for the 2016 southwest monsoon season. Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 106% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of plus/minus 4%. The quantum of the rainfall and its spatial and temporal distribution are critical for the country's agriculture.

The Sensex and the Nifty edged higher for the second trading session in a row. The Sensex has risen 243.21 points, or 0.91% in two trading sessions from its close of 26,777.45 on 6 June 2016. The Sensex has risen 352.70 points or 1.32% in this month so far (till 8 June 2016). The Sensex has risen 903.12 points or 3.46% in calendar year 2016 so far (till 8 June 2016). From a 52-week low of 22,494.61 hit on 29 February 2016, the barometer index has risen 4,526.05 points or 20.12%. The Sensex is off 1,557.67 points or 5.45% from a 52-week high of 28,578.33 hit on 23 July 2015. The Sensex is off 3,004.08 points 10.01% from a record high of 30,024.74 hit on 4 March 2015.

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