Saturday, May 28, 2016

THE WEEK THAT WAS

Benchmark indices regain key psychological levels


Positive global cues, an upward revision in monsoon forecast by Skymet, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's comments indicating that further economic reforms are on the cards triggered a rally on the domestic bourses in the week ended Friday, 27 May 2016. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, moved above the psychological 26,000 mark and the Nifty regained the psychological 8,000 mark during the week. Key indices edged higher in four out of five trading sessions during the week.

In the week ended Friday, 27 May 2016, the 30-share S&P BSE Sensex gained 1,351.70 points or 5.34% to settle at 26,653.60. The Nifty 50 index gained 406.95 points or 5.25% to settle at 8,156.65.

The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 323.85 points or 2.94% to settle at 11,347.03. The BSE Small-Cap index rose 146.70 points or 1.34% to settle at 11,110.96. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.

Trading for the week started on a weak note. Stocks of public sector banks and index heavyweights HDFC and Infosys led losses for the two key benchmark indices on Monday, 23 May 2016. The Sensex fell 71.54 points or 0.28% to settle at 25,230.36, its lowest closing level since 6 May 2016.

An upward revision in monsoon forecast for the June-September 2016 south west monsoon season from private weather forecaster Skymet and gains in European stocks aided the upmove on the domestic bourses on Tuesday, 24 May 2016, with the barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, and the Nifty 50 index snapping a four-day losing streak. The Sensex gained 75.11 points or 0.3% to settle at 25,305.47, its highest closing level since 19 May 2016.

Banking, auto, IT sector stocks and index heavyweights HDFC and ITC led the rally on the domestic bourses on Wednesday, 25 May 2016 triggered by gains in global stocks. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, jumped 575.70 points or 2.28% to settle at 25,881.17.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's comments in an interview to a foreign newspaper indicating that further economic reforms are on the cards triggered rally on the domestic bourses on Thursday, 26 May 2016. The Sensex surged 485.51 points or 1.88% to settle at 26,366.68, its highest closing level since 4 November 2015.

Stocks of public sector banks, pharma companies, crude oil refiners and index heavyweights Infosys and HDFC led the upmove on the bourses on Friday, 27 May 2016. The Sensex rose 286.92 points or 1.09% to settle at 26,653.60, its highest closing level since 30 October 2015.

Among the 30-share Sensex pack, 28 stocks gained and only two of them declined in the week ended Friday, 27 May 2016.

ITC (up 8.94%), Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (up 7.7%), HDFC (up 6.54%), Hindustan Unilever (up 6.02%) and Tata Mootors (up 4.93%) edged higher from the Sensex pack.

Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) gained 4.13%. As per reports the company is preparing to restart work in four offshore oil and gas blocks, including one of India's biggest natural gas discoveries, as it seeks to revive development activity stalled for seven years by disputes with the government. The company plans to drill 21 wells in four offshore areas, including the deepwater KG-D6 block in the Bay of Bengal, according to reports. RIL aims to initially focus on parts of the KG-D6 block known as the R-cluster, satellite and MJ discoveries. It plans to finalize the investment and work plan by the end of this year.

L&T spurted 17.25% and was the top weekly gainer among the 30-share Sensex pack. The company's management said in a conference call held after the announcement of the company's Q4 March 2016 results on Wednesday, 25 May 2016, that it expects L&T's order inflow to rise 15% in the year ending 31 March 2017 (FY 2017). L&T expects 12-15% growth in revenue in the year ending 31 March 2017 (FY 2017). L&T reported 18.55% rise in consolidated net profit to Rs 2453.64 crore on 17.88% rise in total income to Rs 33375.26 crore in Q4 March 2016 over Q4 March 2015. The result was announced after market hours on Wednesday, 25 May 2016. L&T's order book stood at Rs 249949 crore as on 31 March 2016, higher by 7% on year-on-year basis. 

International order book constituted 28% of the total order book. L&T said in a statement that the company continues its emphasis on operational efficiencies, faster execution of projects on hand and reduced working capital levels. Given its track record, diversified portfolio and healthy order book, the company is focusing on profitable execution of the existing order book and is confident of its growth in the near to medium term by leveraging its presence in both the domestic and international segments.

Bharat Heavy Electricals (Bhel) rose 7.51%. The company's net profit fell 59.52% to Rs 359.58 crore on 18.36% decline in total income to Rs 10418.64 crore in Q4 March 2016 over Q4 March 2015. The result was announced after trading hours on Friday, 27 May 2016. Bhel's order backlog stood at about Rs 1.10 lakh crore as on 31 March 2016. The company removed orders amounting Rs 3783 crore from the order book in Q4 March 2016. It removed orders amounting Rs 7429 crore from the order book in the year ended 31 March 2016, which are not likely to commence.

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries rose 4.22%. The company's US subsidiary Taro Pharmaceutical Industries posted strong financial performance for the year ended 31 March 2016. Taro Pharmaceutical Industries' consolidated net profit rose 11.69% to $540.9 million on 10.2% growth in net sales to $950.80 million in the year ended 31 March 2016 over the year ended 31 March 2015. The result was announced on Thursday, 26 May 2016. Taro reportedly contributes around 32% of the US turnover of Sun Pharmaceutical Industries.

Lupin fell 1.62%. The company announced during trading hours on Friday, 27 May 2016, that it has received Establishment Inspection Reports (EIR) for its Mandideep and Aurangabad facilities wherein the U S Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) has concluded that the inspections stand closed. The USFDA had conducted audits at Lupin's Mandideep facility from 8 to 19 February 2016 and its Aurangabad facility from 11 to 15 January 2016. Lupin said that the company had taken appropriate steps to address the observations it had received from these audits. Having received the EIRs from the USFDA about the closure of these inspections, all observations stand addressed and both these facilities are cGMP compliant.

Bank stocks gained. Stocks of private sector banks edged higher. Axis Bank (up 4.53%), ICICI Bank (up 10.43%) and HDFC Bank (up 4.13%) edged higher.

State Bank of India (SBI) jumped 14.06%. The bank's net profit fell 66.23% to Rs 1263.81 crore on 10.10% increase in total income to Rs 53526.97 crore in Q4 March 2016 over Q4 March 2015. The result was announced during trading hours on Friday, 27 May 2016. The bank's gross non-performing assets (NPAs) stood at Rs 98172.80 crore as on 31 March 2016 as against Rs 72791.73 crore as on 31 December 2015 and Rs 56725.34 crore as on 31 March 2015. The ratio of gross NPA to gross advances stood at 6.5% as on 31 March 2016 as against 5.1% as on 31 December 2015 and 4.25% as on 31 March 2015. The ratio of net NPA to net advances stood at 3.81% as on 31 March 2016 as against 2.89% as on 31 December 2015 and 2.12% as on 31 March 2015. The bank's provisions and contingencies rose 89.74% to Rs 13174.05 crore in Q4 March 2016 over Q4 March 2015. The provisions and contingencies include provisions for NPA. SBI's provisions for NPA jumped 143.47% to Rs 12139.17 crore in Q4 March 2016 over Q4 March 2015. The provision coverage ratio of the bank stood at 60.69% as on 31 March 2016.

The S&P BSE Bankex rose 6.46% during the week. Global credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service said in a report that the new bankruptcy code will address several key inefficiencies in the current legal framework for asset resolution in India and is credit positive for Indian banks. Moody's said that the proposed bankruptcy law will reduce the duration of insolvency resolution process (IRP) of a delinquent borrower to maximum of 270 days which in turn will strengthen the banks' bargaining power over delinquent borrowers. The bankruptcy law will give creditors overriding authority to approve terms of any restructuring package of a delinquent borrower. Moody's also said that new law may only a have a limited benefit in addressing the current asset quality issues facing Indian banks. According to Moody's, Indian banks will still have limited avenues available to dispose off distressed assets and that the banks will in general remain reluctant to make appropriate haircuts to reflect their current weak operating conditions.

Tata Steel rose 1.89%. The company trimmed losses in Q4 March 2016. The company reported consolidated net loss of Rs 3213.76 crore in Q4 March 2016, lower than net loss of Rs 5674.29 crore in Q4 March 2015. Tata Steel's total income fell 12.33% to Rs 29636.69 crore in Q4 March 2016 over Q4 March 2015. The result was announced after market hours on Wednesday, 25 May 2016.

Shares of two-wheeler maker Bajaj Auto jumped 4.33%. The company's net profit rose 29% to Rs 803 crore on 13% growth in turnover to Rs 5536 crore in Q4 March 2016 over Q4 March 2015. Operating EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) before mark-to-market gains/losses on foreign currency transactions jumped 34% to Rs 1259 crore in Q4 March 2016 over Q4 March 2015. The operating EBITDA margin surged to 23.1% in Q4 March 2016 from 19.4% in Q4 March 2015. The result was announced during market hours on Wednesday, 25 May 2016.

Maruti Suzuki India rose 4.92%. The company announced during trading hours on Friday, 27 May 2016, that it will recall 75,419 Baleno cars and 1,961 DZire cars (only AGS variant). The company will proactively and voluntarily recall 75,419 Baleno cars (petrol and diesel) manufactured between 3 August 2015 and 17 May 2016 to upgrade the airbag controller software. Of these, 15,995 Baleno cars (only diesel), manufactured between 3 August 2015 and 22 March 2016 will also be attended to for inspection and replacement of a faulty fuel filter. The Baleno cars covered in the recall include 17,231 units of exports. In addition, 1,961 DZire diesel cars (only AGS variant) will be attended to for inspection and replacement of a faulty fuel filter. Starting 31 May 2016, the owners of the vehicles covered will be contacted by Maruti Suzuki dealers. The software upgrade and the replacement of faulty fuel filter, will be done free of cost, the company said.

Cipla lost 6.62%. The company's consolidated net profit fell 68.9% to Rs 81 crore on 5.6% growth in income from operations to Rs 3267 crore in Q4 March 2016 over Q4 March 2015. The company's earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) declined 56.9% to Rs 219 crore in Q4 March 2016 over Q4 March 2015. The result was announced after market hours on Tuesday, 24 May 2016.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi said he had opened up more of the economy to foreign investment and made changes to curb corruption, fill gaps in rural infrastructure and make it easier to do business. He also said that he has an enormous task ahead. The Prime Minister said that he expects the goods and services tax (GST) bill to pass this year. The BJP led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government completed two years in office on Thursday, 26 May 2016.

A foreign brokerage upgraded the Indian equity market to 'overweight' from 'equalweight'. According to media reports, the brokerage has cited attractive valuations of Indian stocks compared with other emerging markets, the country's strong macroeconomic fundamentals, a recovery in earnings growth, prospects for the passage of the goods and services tax (GST) bill in the Rajya Sabha, expectation of good monsoon this year and likely further easing of interest rates by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) as reasons for upgrading India's rating. The Sensex jumped 575.70 points or 2.28% to settle at 25,881.17, its highest closing level since 27 April 2016.

Private weather forecaster Skymet on Tuesday, 24 May 2016 revised higher forecast for the 2016 southwest monsoon to 109% of the long period average (LPA) from 105% of the LPA predicted earlier. Skymet said that conditions are favorable for the timely onset of the southwest monsoon in Kerala. This is in contrast with state-run weather office the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicting a delay of 6 days for the onset of the monsoon rains in Kerala this year from the normal onset date which is 1 June. The IMD also, last month, forecast good rains during the 2016 southwest monsoon season. Skymet has cut its forecast of the quantum of rains in June 2016 to 87% of LPA from its earlier prediction of 90% of LPA. It has raised its forecast of the quantum of rains in July 2016 to 108% of LPA from earlier 105%. For August 2016, Skymet has raised its forecast to 113% of LPA from earlier 108%. For September 2016, Skymet has raised its forecast to 123% of LPA from earlier 115%.

On the global front, Eurozone finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reached a deal to unlock more bailout funds for debt-burdened Greece. The new payouts will save Greece from defaulting on big debt redemptions to the IMF and European Central Bank in July. Eurozone finance ministers also agreed on a road map on debt relief for Greece.

Data released on Monday, 23 May 2016 showed a slowdown in economic activity in the eurozone in May 2016. Data provider Markit said a headline measure of activity based on surveys of 5,000 companies around the eurozone, known as the composite purchasing managers index, fell to 52.9 in May from 53 in April. A reading above 50 indicates an increase in activity, while a reading below that level indicates a decline.

No comments: