Monday, May 16, 2016

THE END SESSION ( 16 / 05 )

Market edges higher amid volatility


Trading for the week started on a positive note as key benchmark indices settled with decent gains after what was a volatile trading session. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex rose 163.66 points or 0.64% to settle at 25,653.23. The Nifty 50 index rose 45.85 points or 0.59% to settle at 7,860.75. FMCG and realty stocks gained. Shares of PSU banks declined after Bank of Baroda and Union Bank of India posted weak Q4 results,

In overseas markets, European stocks fell despite Asian bourses shrugging off more evidence of a slowing Chinese economy. Most Asian stocks rose, shrugging off soft Chinese data released over the weekend. China's investment, factory output and retail sales all grew more slowly than expected in April, adding to doubts about whether the world's second-largest economy is stabilizing, data released on Saturday showed. Industrial output rose 6% year-over-year in April, compared with 6.8% growth in March, the National Bureau of Statistics said. Fixed-asset investment in urban areas grew by a weaker-than-expected 10.5% year-over-year in the January-to-April period, compared with an annual increase of 10.7% for the first three months of 2016. Retail sales grew by a less-than-expected 10.1% in April compared with a year earlier, slowing from March's 10.5% year-over-year rise. US stocks ended lower during the previous trading session on Friday, 13 May 2016 on a slump in consumer-focused companies.

Closer home, the Sensex rose 163.66 points or 0.64% to settle at 25,653.23, its highest closing level since 12 May 2016. The index rose 198.89 points or 0.78% at the day's high of 25,688.46. The index lost 137.95 points or 0.54% at the day's low of 25,351.62, its lowest level since 9 May 2016.

The Nifty 50 index rose 45.85 points or 0.59% to settle at 7,860.75, its highest closing level since 12 May 2016. The index rose 59 points or 0.75% at the day's high of 7,873.90. The index fell 42.75 points or 0.54% at the day's low of 7,772.15, its lowest level since 9 May 2016.

The market breadth indicating the overall health of was positive. On BSE, 1,308 shares gained and 1,258 shares rose. A total of 173 shares were unchanged. The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 0.3%. The BSE Small-Cap index gained 0.09%. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.

The total turnover on BSE amounted to Rs 2230 crore, lower than turnover of Rs 2507.83 crore registered during the previous trading session on Friday, 13 May 2016.
Among sectoral indices on BSE, the S&P BSE Oil & Gas index (down 0.41%), the S&P BSE Capital Goods index (down 0.32%), the S&P BSE Energy index (down 0.23%), the S&P BSE Power index (down 0.22%), the S&P BSE Utilities index (down 0.16%), the S&P BSE Consumer Durables index (down 0.12%), the S&P BSE Bankex (down 0.04%), the S&P BSE Industrials index (up 0.07%), the S&P BSE Telecom index (up 0.09%), the S&P BSE Basic Materials index (up 0.12%), the S&P BSE Finance index (up 0.47%), the S&P BSE Healthcare index (up 0.49%), the S&P BSE Consumer Discretionary Goods & Services index (up 0.50%), the S&P BSE Teck index (up 0.53%), the S&P BSE Auto index (up 0.56%) and the S&P BSE IT index (up 0.62%), underperformed the Sensex. The S&P BSE Metal index (up 0.77%), the S&P BSE Realty index (up 1.47%) and the S&P BSE FMCG index (up 1.58%), outperformed the Sensex.

Wipro rose 0.25%. The company announced a partnership with Xactly Corporation, a leading provider of enterprise-class, SaaS and cloud-based incentive solutions for employee and sales performance management. The partnership will offer sales performance management (SPM) solutions for customer organizations across industry sectors in a software as a service model. The announcement was made after market hours today, 16 May 2016.

Index heavyweight and housing finance major HDFC advanced 1.67% to Rs 1,185.55. The stock hit high of Rs 1,191.05 and low of Rs 1,160.50 in intraday trade.

State run coal miner Coal India (CIL) rose 0.6%. NTPC shed 0.39%. CIL during market hours today, 16 May 2016, said that the company has signed a joint venture agreement with NTPC for setting up of a joint venture company at 50:50 shareholding basis for revival of Sindhri & Gorakhpur units of Fertiliser Corporation of India.

Index heavyweight and cigarette major ITC gained 3.05% to Rs 329.05. The stock hit a high of Rs 330 and low of Rs 317 in intraday trade.

FMCG stocks saw mixed trend. Colgate-Palmolive (India) (down 1.02%), Britannia Industries (down 0.42%), Dabur India (down 1.57%), Godrej Consumer Products (down 0.15%), Marico (down 1.42%), Procter & Gamble Hygiene and Health Care (down 1.41%) and Bajaj Corp (down 1.12%) declined.

Nestle India (up 3.08%), Tata Global Beverages (up 1.26%), Hindustan Unilever (up 1.79%), GlaxoSmithkline Consumer Healthcare (up 0.15%) and Jyothy Laboratories (up 2.17%) rose.

Metal and mining stocks were mixed. Vedanta (up 1.94%), JSW Steel (up 2.05%), Tata Steel (up 1.04%), Hindustan Zinc (up 0.09%), NMDC (up 0.62%), Hindalco Industries (up 0.56%), Hindustan Copper (up 0.1%) edged higher. Steel Authority of India (Sail) (down 1.56%), National Aluminium Company (down 2.11%), Bhushan Steel (down 1.87%), and Jindal Steel & Power (down 1.52%) declined.

Copper edged higher in the global commodities market. High Grade Copper for May 2016 delivery was currently up 0.24% at $2.079 per pound on the COMEX.

Realty stocks rose. DLF (up 2.09%), Housing Development & Infrastructure (HDIL) (up 3.2%), Sobha (up 2.15%), Indiabulls Real Estate (up 6.46%), and Oberoi Realty (up 1.22%) gained. Unitech (down 0.74%) and D B Realty (up 2.24%) edged lower.

Bank of Baroda (BoB) lost 8.23% after the bank reported net loss of Rs 3230.14 crore in Q4 March 2016 compared with net profit of Rs 598.35 crore in Q4 March 2015. The result was announced after market hours on Friday, 13 May 2016.

BoB's total income rose 6.06% to Rs 12789.06 crore in Q4 March 2016 over Q4 March 2015. The bank's gross non-performing assets (NPA) stood at Rs 40521.04 crore as on 31 March 2016 compared with Rs 38934.11 crore as on 31 December 2015 and Rs 16261.45 crore as on 31 March 2015. The ratio of gross NPA to gross advances stood at 9.99% as on 31 March 2016 compared with 9.68% as on 31 December 2015 and 3.72% as on 31 March 2015. The ratio of net NPA to net advances stood at 5.06% as on 31 March 2016 compared with 5.67% as on 31 December 2015 and 1.89% as on 31 March 2015. BOB's provisions and contingencies jumped 277.31% to Rs 6857.66 crore in Q4 March 2016 over Q4 March 2015.

BOB's board of directors has not announced dividend for the financial year ended 31 March 2016 (FY 2016) as the bank reported net loss in FY 2016.

BoB said that its asset quality has stabilized and that the management expects the bank to return to black during the current financial year. The state-run bank posted a massive net loss of Rs 5395.55 crore in the year ended 31 March 2016 (FY 2016) as against a net profit of Rs 3398.43 crore in the year ended 31 March 2015 (FY 2015). The reason for the massive net loss was due to additional provisions that the state-run bank made with respect to certain loans in Q3 December 2015 and Q4 March 2016 as a part of an asset quality review (AQR) being carried out by the Reserve Bank of India for the banking sector as a whole. The provision coverage ratio (PCR) of the bank improved to 60.09% as on 31 March 2016 from 52.7% as on 31 December 2015. The total restructured standard assets of the bank dropped to Rs 13735 crore on 31 March 2016 from Rs 17135 crore as on 31 December 2015.

Union Bank of India (UBI) fell 5.91% after net profit fell 78.34% to Rs 96.12 crore on 5.32% decline in total income to Rs 8884.41 crore in Q4 March 2016 over Q4 March 2015. The result was announced after market hours on Friday, 13 May 2016.

UBI's gross non-performing assets (NPA) stood at Rs 24170.89 crore as on 31 March 2016 compared with Rs 18495.16 crore as on 31 December 2015 and Rs 13030.87 crore as on 31 March 2015. The ratio of gross NPA to gross advances stood at 8.7% as on 31 March 2016 compared with 7.05% as on 31 December 2015 and 4.96% as on 31 March 2015. The ratio of net NPA to net advances stood at 5.25% as on 31 March 2016 compared with 4.07% as on 31 December 2015 and 2.71% as on 31 March 2015. UBI's provisions and contingencies rose 54.92% to Rs 1564.67 crore in Q4 March 2016 over Q4 March 2015. The bank's provision coverage ratio stood at 50.98% as on 31 March 2016.

Shares of other PSU banks also declined after BoB and UBI posted weak Q4 results, State Bank of India (SBI) (down 4.22%), Punjab National Bank (down 3.42%), Canara Bank (down 2.11%), IDBI Bank (down 2.75%), Bank of India (down 2.98%) and Vijaya Bank (down 1.12%) dropped.

Shares of private banks were mixed. ICICI Bank (down 1.13%) and Axis Bank (down 0.8%) declined. Kotak Mahindra Bank (up 1.28%), IndusInd Bank (up 1.46%), Federal Bank (up 2.01%), Yes Bank (up 3.19%) and HDFC Bank (up 2.01%) rose.

The Sensex has risen 46.61 points or 0.18% in this month so far (till 16 May 2016). The Sensex has fallen 464.31 points or 1.77% in calendar year 2016 so far (till 16 May 2016). From a 52-week low of 22,494.61 hit on 29 February 2016, the barometer index has risen 3,158.62 points or 14.04%. The Sensex is off 2,925.10 points or 10.23% from a 52-week high of 28,578.33 hit on 23 July 2015. The Sensex is off 4,371.51 points or 14.55% from a record high of 30,024.74 hit on 4 March 2015.

Among macro data, the inflation based on wholesale price index (WPI) stood at 0.34% in April 2016 as compared to a reading of negative 0.85% in March 2016, data released by the government today, 16 May 2016 showed. Build up inflation rate in the financial year so far was 1.37% compared to a build up rate of 0.17% in the corresponding period of the previous year. The annual rate of inflation based on final index for February 2016 stood at negative 0.85% as compared to negative 0.91% reported earlier.

Meanwhile, separate data showed that India's merchandise exports continued to register year-on-year decline in value terms at the beginning of the new financial year. Merchandise exports fell 6.74% at $20.57 billion in April 2016 over April 2015. Non-petroleum exports fell 3.68% at $18.58 billion in April 2016 over April 2015. The trend of falling exports is in tandem with other major world economies, according to a statement issued by the Ministry of Commerce & Industry. Imports fell 23.1% at $25.41 billion in April 2016 over April 2015. Oil imports fell 24.01% at $5.65 billion. Non-oil imports fell 22.83% at $19.76 billion. The trade deficit fell sharply to $4.84 billion in April 2016 from $10.99 billion in April 2015. The commerce ministry released the trade data for April 2016 after trading hours on Friday, 13 May 2016.

India's weather department, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Sunday, 15 May 2016 said that the statistical model forecast suggests that the monsoon onset over Kerala in this year is likely to be slightly delayed. The southwest monsoon is likely to set over Kerala on 7 June 2016 with a model error of ± 4 days. The arrival of the south-west monsoon in Kerala marks the beginning of monsoon season. Earlier, IMD in its release of the long range forecast for the 2016 southwest monsoon season rainfall on 12 April 2016, said that the monsoon seasonal rainfall during the forthcoming monsoon is likely to be 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm

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