Sunday, April 24, 2016

THE WEEK AHEAD

Market may remain volatile ahead of near month F&O expiry


Macroeconomic data, next batch of Q4 results of India Inc., policy decisions by the US Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan, trend in global markets, investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs), the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement will dictate trend on the bourses in the near term.

The market may remain volatile as traders roll over positions in the futures & options (F&O) segment from the near month April 2016 series to May 2016 series. The near month April 2016 derivatives contract expire on Thursday, 28 April 2016.

Investors will closely track the next batch of Q4 results of India Inc. Reliance Industries (RIL) will be in focus on Monday, 25 April 2016 after it reports its Q4 result after market hours on Friday, 22 April 2016. UltraTech Cement announces Q4 results on Monday, 25 April 2016. Axis Bank and Maruti Suzuki India will announce their Q4 results on Tuesday, 26 April 2016. Bharti Airtel and Yes Bank will announce their Q4 results on Wednesday, 27 April 2016. ACC and Ambuja Cements will announce their Q1 results on Thursday, 28 April 2016. HCL Technologies will announce its Q3 results on Thursday, 28 April 2016. Idea Cellular announces its Q4 results on Thursday, 28 April 2016. ICICI Bank will announce Q4 results on Friday, 29 April 2016.

On political front, the second part of the budget session of Parliament will commence on Monday, 25 April 2016, after a month long recess and will conclude on 13 May 2016, during which government hopes to receive support of opposition parties in passage of key legislations including the Goods & Services Tax (GST) Bill.

On global front, US Federal Reserve will hold its next two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, 26 April 2016 and Wednesday, 27 April 2016. As per market expectations, the Fed is likely to hold rates steady at its policy meeting later in April and instead will opt to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in its June meeting to 0.5-0.75% in what will be the second in its first series of rate rises in nearly a decade.
In US, data on new home sales in March, a measure of the number of newly constructed homes with a committed sale during that month will be announced on Monday, 25 April 2016. Data on advance estimates of Q1 March 2016 GDP figures will be announced on Thursday, 28 April 2016.

In Japan, two-day monetary policy meeting of Bank of Japan (BOJ) will be held on Wednesday, 27 April 2016 and Thursday, 28 April 2016. Market participants are becoming more confident in their expectations of further easing from the Bank of Japan. The BOJ in January decided to begin charging 0.1% interest on some bank reserves parked with the institution, in a bid to kick-start the economy and pull it out of two decades of deflation.

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