Sunday, April 10, 2016

THE WEEK AHEAD

Trading may be choppy in truncated week


The trend in global markets, investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), the movement of rupee against the dollar, and crude oil price movement will dictate trend on the bourses.

Next week is a truncated trading week. The stock market will remain shut on Thursday, 14 April 2016, on account of Dr.Baba Saheb Ambedkar Jayanti and again on Friday, 15 April 2016, on account of Ram Navami.

Among key macro economic announcements, the government is scheduled to unveil industrial production data for February 2016 at 17:30 IST on Tuesday, 12 April 2016. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew negative 1.5% year-on-year (yoy) in January 2016.

The government is scheduled to unveil the consumer price index (CPI) data (rural, urban and combined) for the month of March 2016 at 17:30 IST on Tuesday, 12 April 2016. The all-India general CPI inflation dipped to four months low of 5.18% in February 2016 (new base 2012=100), while snapping consistent increase for last six straight months.

The government said that March wholesale price index (WPI) data will be released on 18 April 2016 as against the earlier set date of 14 April 2016. The postponement comes in the wake of 14 April 2016 being a Central Government holiday on account of the birthday of Dr B.R. Ambedkar.

The next major trigger for the Indian markets is Q4 results of India Inc. The Q4 results season starts next week with IT major Infosys announcing its Q4 March 2016 results on Friday, 15 April 2016.

On the global front, UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March 2016 will be unveiled on Tuesday, 12 April 2016. Trade Balance data in China will be unveiled on Tuesday, 12 April 2016.

Bank of Canada (BOC) will decide on interest rates on Wednesday, 13 April 2016. Data on US Crude Oil Inventories will be unveiled on Wednesday, 13 April 2016. The level of inventories influences the price of petroleum products, which can have an impact on inflation.

Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2016 will be unveiled on Thursday, 14 April 2016. Bank of England (BOE) will decide on interest rates on Thursday, 14 April 2016. China Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data and Industrial Production data will be declared on Thursday, 14 April 2016.

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