Saturday, March 26, 2016

THE WEEK AHEAD

F&O expiry may cause volatility on the bourses


Indian stocks may remain volatile next week as traders roll over positions in the futures & options (F&O) segment from the near month March 2016 series to April 2016 series. The March 2016 derivatives contracts are set to expire on Thursday, 31 March 2016. Trading on the domestic bourses will resume on Monday, 28 March 2016, after an extended weekend. The stock market will remain shut on 24 March 2016 on account of Holi and again on 25 March 2016 on account of Good Friday. Most global stock markets are closed on account of Good Friday.

With the financial year drawing towards a close, fund managers are likely to provide support to prop up year-end net asset value (NAV) of their schemes as on 31 March 2016, the last day of the current financial year.

Aurobindo Pharma, Bharti Infratel, Eicher Motors and Tata Motors Ltd. (DVR) will hog limelight as these four stocks become a part of the Nifty 50 index with effect from Friday 1 April 2016. Tata Motors Ltd. (DVR) enters as an additional stock, making the Nifty index a basket of 51 stocks rather than 50 stocks from 1 April 2016. The three outgoing stocks from the Nifty are Cairn India, Punjab National Bank and Vedanta.

Stocks of auto companies will be in focus as companies start unveiling monthly sales volume data for March 2016 from Friday, 1 April 2016. Meanwhile, infrastructure cess on cars and sports utility vehicles announced in the Union Budget 2016-17 on 29 February 2016 takes effect from 1 April 2016. The finance minister announced an infrastructure cess of 1% on small petrol, LPG, CNG cars, 2.5% on diesel cars of certain capacity and 4% on other higher engine capacity vehicles and sports utility vehicles (SUVs) in the Budget.

Shares of cigarette major ITC will be in focus as an increase in excise duty on tobacco products in the Budget takes effect from 1 April 2016. The finance minister announced increase in excise duty by 10-15% on tobacco products, including cigarettes in the Budget.

Stocks of public sector oil marketing companies (PSU OMCs) will be in focus as a fuel price review is due on 31 March 2016. PSU OMCs undertake fuel price review twice during the month based on the trend in international oil market. The first price review takes place during the middle of the month and the second on the last day of the month.

Airline stocks will be in focus as a monthly review of jet fuel prices is due on 31 March 2016. PSU OMCs review jet fuel prices on the last day every month based on the average imported crude oil price for the month. Jet fuel prices are directly linked to crude oil price.

On the global front, Markit Economics will announce the Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI, the Nikkei Japan Manufacturing PMI, the Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI and the Markit US Manufacturing PMI for March 2016 on Friday, 1 April 2016.

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