Sunday, March 13, 2016

THE WEEK AHEAD

Macroeconomic data, global cues to dictate market trend


Macroeconomic data, trend in global markets, investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs), the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement will dictate trend on the bourses in the near term.

The government will announce data on industrial production for January 2016 after market hours on Friday, 11 March 2016. India's industrial production declined for the second straight month at 1.34% in December 2015 over December 2014.

The government is scheduled to announce data on inflation based on the consumer price index (CPI) for February 2016 on Monday, 14 March 2016. CPI inflation increased to 17-month high to 5.69% in January 2016 compared with 5.61% reading in December 2015. On the same day, data on inflation based on the wholesale price index (WPI) for February 2016 is also due to be released by the government. WPI inflation stood at minus 0.9% in January 2016 compared to minus 0.73% for December 2015.

The data on payment of fourth and final installment of advance taxes by India Inc will be out during the middle of March 2016. The data could provide cues on the expected Q4 March 2016 corporate earnings. Advance taxes are collected in four installments -- 15% by 15 June; 40% by 15 September; 75% by 15 December and 100% by 15 March.
Shares of public sector oil marketing companies (PSU OMCs) will be in focus as a regular fuel price review is due during the middle of the month. PSU OMCs review fuel prices twice a month based on the trend in international oil market and currency movement. The first review takes place during the middle of the month and the last review at the month-end.

On the global front, the US Federal Reserve's crucial two-day monetary policy meeting is scheduled on 15 and 16 March 2016. Federal Reserve officials are likely to hold short-term interest rates steady at their policy meeting next week amid uncertainties about markets and global growth. The Fed in December 2015 raised its benchmark federal-funds rate from near zero to a range between 0.25% and 0.5%.

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