Sunday, January 31, 2016

THE WEEK AHEAD

Outcome of RBI's policy review, macro-economic data to dictate trend


Outcome of RBI's policy review, macroeconomic data, next batch of Q3 December 2015 corporate earnings, trend in global markets, investment pattern of foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs), the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement will dictate trend on the bourses during the forthcoming week.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will announce its sixth bi-monthly monetary policy for the year 2015-16 at 11:00 IST on Tuesday, 2 February 2016. In the fifth bi-monthly monetary policy on 1 December 2015, the RBI kept its benchmark interest rate viz. the repo rate unchanged at 6.75% and the cash reserve ratio (CRR) for commercial banks unchanged at 4% of net demand and time liability (NDTL).

Shares of automobile companies will be in focus as companies start announcing monthly sales volume data for January 2016 from Monday, 1 February 2016.

Shares of public sector oil marketing companies (PSU OMCs) will be in focus as a regular fuel price review is due at the month end. PSU OMCs review fuel prices twice a month based on the trend in international oil market and currency movement. The first review takes place during the middle of the month and the last review at the month-end. PSU OMCs also review jet fuel prices on the last day of the month.

Shares of aviation firms will be in focus as a regular jet fuel price review is due at the month end. PSU OMCs revise jet fuel prices on the last day of the month based on the average imported oil price during the month. Prices of ATF constitutes approximately 50% of operating expenses of Indian airlines.

Among quarterly results of scheduled for release next week, Tech Mahindra announces its third quarter result on Monday, 1 February 2016. Bajaj Auto and Tata Steel are scheduled to announce their third quarter results on Thursday, 4 February 2016. Bosch and Lupin will unveil their third quarter results on Friday, 5 February 2016.

On macro front, the Nikkei India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for the month of January 2016 is due on Monday, 1 February 2016. The seasonally adjusted Nikkei India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) had slipped to 49.1 in December 2015 from 50.3 in November 2015.

The Nikkei India Service PMI data for the month of January 2016 is due on Wednesday, 3 February 2016. India's Nikkei India Service PMI rose to 51.60 in December 2015 from 50.20 in November 2015.

In the primary market, the initial public offer (IPO) of staffing firm TeamLease Services will open for bidding on Tuesday, 2 February 2016. The IPO is a combination of fresh issue of shares aggregating up to Rs 150 crore and offer for sale by a promoter group entity and a total of four investor shareholders. The price band for the IPO has been fixed at Rs 785 to Rs 850 per share. The IPO closes on Thursday, 4 February 2016.

On the global front, the Caixin China manufacturing PMI data for January 2016 is due on Monday, 1 February 2016. The Caixin China services PMI data is due for December 2015 on Wednesday, 3 February 2016. The Bank of England sets interest rates and policy makers unveil their quarterly inflation report containing new projections for growth and prices on Thursday, 4 February 2016.

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