US Federal Reserve's policy decision to dictate trend on bourses
Macroeconomic data, monetary policy decision by the US Federal Reserve, trend in global markets, investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement will dictate trend on the bourses in the coming week.
The market on Monday, 14 December 2015, will react to data on industrial production (IIP) for October 2015, which will be announced by the government after market hours on Friday, 11 December 2015. India's IIP growth moderated to 3.6% in September 2015 over a year ago compared with the revised growth of 6.3% in August 2015. The IIP growth had showed an improvement from 2.6% growth recorded in September 2014.
Among other macro economic data scheduled for release next week, the government will unveil the data on wholesale price index (WPI) for November 2015 on Monday, 14 December 2015. The data is scheduled to be announced at 11:00 IST on that day. WPI stood at negative 3.81% for October 2015 compared with a reading of negative 4.54% for September 2015.
The data on inflation based on the consumer price index (CPI) for November 2015, will be announced by the government after market hours on Monday, 14 December 2015. The CPI inflation accelerated to four-month high of 5% in October 2015, compared with 4.4% reading in September 2015.
The data on payment of third installment of advance taxes by India Inc will be out during the middle of December 2015. The data could provide cues on the expected Q3 December 2015 corporate earnings. Advance taxes are collected in four installments -- 15% by 15 June; 40% by 15 September; 75% by 15 December and 100% by 15 March.
Shares of public sector oil marketing companies (PSU OMCs) will be in focus as a regular fuel price review is due during the middle of the month. PSU OMCs review fuel prices twice a month based on the trend in international oil market and currency movement. The first review takes place during the middle of the month and the last review at the month-end.
On the political front, developments in winter session of the parliament will be closely watched. The winter session of the parliament began on 26 November 2015 and concludes on 23 December 2015. Investors' focus is on whether the GST constitutional amendment bill will be passed in the Rajya Sabha. The constitutional amendment bill for the implementation of GST, which subsumes all indirect taxes to create a unified market across the country, has been cleared by the Lok Sabha and is awaiting legislative passage in the Rajya Sabha. A constitutional amendment bill requires a majority of two thirds in the house for its passage. The BJP-led NDA has a comfortable majority in Lok Sabha, but lags in numbers in the Rajya Sabha. GST, touted as the single biggest indirect taxation reforms since independence, will simplify and harmonise the indirect tax regime in the country. Central taxes like Central Excise Duty, Additional Excise Duties, Service Tax, Additional Customs Duty (CVD) and Special Additional Duty of Customs (SAD), etc. will be subsumed in GST. At the state level, taxes like VAT/Sales Tax, Central Sales Tax, Entertainment Tax, Octroi and Entry Tax, Purchase Tax and Luxury Tax, etc. would be subsumed in GST.
On global front, investors will closely watch the decision of US Federal Reserve's two-day monetary policy meeting scheduled on Tuesday, 15 December and Wednesday, 16 December 2015. The Fed meet will be associated with a summary of economic projections and a press conference by the Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen. Investors in emerging markets, including India are worried that once the Fed starts raising interest rates, it will drain liquidity from global emerging markets and redirect it to developed economies. The Fed has held its benchmark short-term interest rate near zero since December 2008. The ultra-loose monetary policy in the US has encouraged heavy investment in higher-yielding emerging markets.
Among macro data in US, the National Association of Home Builders will release a housing market index for December on Tuesday, 15 December 2015. The data on housing starts for November 2015, reflecting the commitment of builders to new construction activity for that month; the index of industrial production for November 2015, showing how much factories, mines and utilities produced for that month; and the flash US Purchasing Managers' Manufacturing Index (PMI) for December, showing preliminary results of health of manufacturing activity for that month are due on Wednesday, 16 December 2015. The Markit PMI Services flash data for December 2015, indicating health of services sector is due on Friday, 18 December 2015.
The market on Monday, 14 December 2015, will react to data on industrial production (IIP) for October 2015, which will be announced by the government after market hours on Friday, 11 December 2015. India's IIP growth moderated to 3.6% in September 2015 over a year ago compared with the revised growth of 6.3% in August 2015. The IIP growth had showed an improvement from 2.6% growth recorded in September 2014.
Among other macro economic data scheduled for release next week, the government will unveil the data on wholesale price index (WPI) for November 2015 on Monday, 14 December 2015. The data is scheduled to be announced at 11:00 IST on that day. WPI stood at negative 3.81% for October 2015 compared with a reading of negative 4.54% for September 2015.
The data on inflation based on the consumer price index (CPI) for November 2015, will be announced by the government after market hours on Monday, 14 December 2015. The CPI inflation accelerated to four-month high of 5% in October 2015, compared with 4.4% reading in September 2015.
The data on payment of third installment of advance taxes by India Inc will be out during the middle of December 2015. The data could provide cues on the expected Q3 December 2015 corporate earnings. Advance taxes are collected in four installments -- 15% by 15 June; 40% by 15 September; 75% by 15 December and 100% by 15 March.
Shares of public sector oil marketing companies (PSU OMCs) will be in focus as a regular fuel price review is due during the middle of the month. PSU OMCs review fuel prices twice a month based on the trend in international oil market and currency movement. The first review takes place during the middle of the month and the last review at the month-end.
On the political front, developments in winter session of the parliament will be closely watched. The winter session of the parliament began on 26 November 2015 and concludes on 23 December 2015. Investors' focus is on whether the GST constitutional amendment bill will be passed in the Rajya Sabha. The constitutional amendment bill for the implementation of GST, which subsumes all indirect taxes to create a unified market across the country, has been cleared by the Lok Sabha and is awaiting legislative passage in the Rajya Sabha. A constitutional amendment bill requires a majority of two thirds in the house for its passage. The BJP-led NDA has a comfortable majority in Lok Sabha, but lags in numbers in the Rajya Sabha. GST, touted as the single biggest indirect taxation reforms since independence, will simplify and harmonise the indirect tax regime in the country. Central taxes like Central Excise Duty, Additional Excise Duties, Service Tax, Additional Customs Duty (CVD) and Special Additional Duty of Customs (SAD), etc. will be subsumed in GST. At the state level, taxes like VAT/Sales Tax, Central Sales Tax, Entertainment Tax, Octroi and Entry Tax, Purchase Tax and Luxury Tax, etc. would be subsumed in GST.
On global front, investors will closely watch the decision of US Federal Reserve's two-day monetary policy meeting scheduled on Tuesday, 15 December and Wednesday, 16 December 2015. The Fed meet will be associated with a summary of economic projections and a press conference by the Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen. Investors in emerging markets, including India are worried that once the Fed starts raising interest rates, it will drain liquidity from global emerging markets and redirect it to developed economies. The Fed has held its benchmark short-term interest rate near zero since December 2008. The ultra-loose monetary policy in the US has encouraged heavy investment in higher-yielding emerging markets.
Among macro data in US, the National Association of Home Builders will release a housing market index for December on Tuesday, 15 December 2015. The data on housing starts for November 2015, reflecting the commitment of builders to new construction activity for that month; the index of industrial production for November 2015, showing how much factories, mines and utilities produced for that month; and the flash US Purchasing Managers' Manufacturing Index (PMI) for December, showing preliminary results of health of manufacturing activity for that month are due on Wednesday, 16 December 2015. The Markit PMI Services flash data for December 2015, indicating health of services sector is due on Friday, 18 December 2015.
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