Sunday, December 06, 2015

THE WEEK AHEAD

Macroeconomic data, global cues to dictate market trend


Macroeconomic data, trend in global markets, flows from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement will dictate trend on the bourses.

In macroeconomic data, the government will unveil index of industrial production (IIP) data for October 2015 after market hours on Friday, 11 December 2015. India's IIP growth moderated to 3.6% in September 2015 over a year ago compared with the revised growth of 6.3% in August 2015. The IIP growth had showed an improvement from 2.6% growth recorded in September 2014.

The primary market turns active as the initial public offers (IPOs) of two companies open for bidding next week. The initial public offer (IPO) of Dr. Lal PathLabs opens for bidding on 8 December 2015. The IPO is scheduled to close on 10 December 2015. The IPO comprises offer for sale of 1.16 crore equity shares of Rs 10 each. At the lower price band of Rs 540 per share, the issue size works out to Rs 626.40 crore and at the higher price band of Rs 550 per share, the issue size is Rs 638 crore. Retail individual bidders will get a discount of Rs 15 on the offer price.

Also the initial public offer (IPO) of Alkem Laboratories opens for bidding on 8 December 2015. The IPO is scheduled to close on 10 December 2015. The IPO comprises offer for sale (OFS) of 1.28 crore equity shares of Rs 2 each. At the lower price band of Rs 1,020 per share, the issue size is Rs 1305.60 crore. At the higher price band of Rs 1,050 per share, the issue size works out to Rs 1344 crore. The selling shareholders comprise promoters and promoter group, offering about 1.28 crore shares.

On the political front, developments in winter session of the parliament will be closely watched. The winter session of the parliament began on 26 November 2015 and concludes on 23 December 2015. Investors' focus is on whether the GST constitutional amendment bill will be passed in the Rajya Sabha. The constitutional amendment bill for the implementation of GST, which subsumes all indirect taxes to create a unified market across the country, has been cleared by the Lok Sabha and is awaiting legislative passage in the Rajya Sabha. A constitutional amendment bill requires a majority of two thirds in the house for its passage. The BJP-led NDA has a comfortable majority in Lok Sabha, but lags in numbers in the Rajya Sabha. GST, touted as the single biggest indirect taxation reforms since independence, will simplify and harmonise the indirect tax regime in the country. Central taxes like Central Excise Duty, Additional Excise Duties, Service Tax, Additional Customs Duty (CVD) and Special Additional Duty of Customs (SAD), etc. will be subsumed in GST. 

At the state level, taxes like VAT/Sales Tax, Central Sales Tax, Entertainment Tax, Octroi and Entry Tax, Purchase Tax and Luxury Tax, etc. would be subsumed in GST.
Among global cues, the Japanense government will revise its July-September GDP figures based on the capex and inventory investment data in the MOF Corporate Statistics, and is due to publish its second preliminary GDP estimates on Tuesday, 8 December 2015. Initial figures showed that Japan had fallen back into recession in the third quarter, after its economy shrank at a worse than expected annualised rate of 0.8% as business investment fell.

On Thursday, 10 December 2015, the Bank of England (BoE) announces its policy decision. As per reports, the Monetary Policy Committee will probably leave its key benchmark interest rate at a record-low of 0.5%.

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