Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Patience and Trading: Making Money Consistently is Hard


  1. There is no clear cut way to make money from trading, which is why most private traders lose money. Trading is definitely not the easy-life, loads-a-money kind... I believe so many start trading in the belief that they will have fantastic riches with very little effort. Sadly they will definitely be in the 80% that lose and give up. Most accounts have been blown because of the 'account killer' mindset. For myself it took me quite a bit of time to stop losing like an idiot!
  2. Becoming an expert trader does not happen overnight. It takes years of practice - when you enter the stock market you need to realise that you're up against some of the best people in the world operating in very complex markets. It is easier to lose money than to make money on a consistent basis.
  3. Trading is very fickle. Just like a restaurant you are only as good as your last trade. Don't ever take success for granted...I should know...having gone straight from novice to making a lot, then having a bad few years, I'm now clawing way back up. You have to treat it like a business and invest substantial hours into it.
  4. Don't think that just because you have read books on technical analysis and have familiarised yourself with the patterns and signs, that it will automatically follow that you will make money from trading. Imagine how difficult it would have been trying to become a plumber from just reading books. I'm not saying you couldn't become a plumber (of sorts) from reading and trying things out and practicing various skills of the trade over and over again but imagine how many cock ups there would be before you got it right. How many times would you have lost your temper and threatened to give up? How much money would you have lost before being able to do plumbing jobs consistently profitably? That's the journey we are on. We are up against pros with experienced mentors and bottomless pits of cash. Brings things into perspective just how difficult it is.
  5. The main problem with books is that you cannot ask questions in order to test the strategies and check understanding of the subject matter. Add to that the fact that simple strategies make money and imo an intraday technical book would be 90% about money management and psychology - only 5-10% on strategies. So two and a half chapters and the book is finished. The real fact is that you can't gain experience from books and as such I believe experience and practice is a far more important ingredient for success (in anything not just trading) than the technical information and methods. The trading methods can be acquired in books but it is experience that allows us to see the things that really matter and I'm not convinced that the information from a book can ever act as that 'filter'.
  6. A very important principle to remember when trading is that that which is easy to do is almost certainly the wrong thing to do. It is easy to take your profits when you have a big winner and that is why it is wrong. 90% of traders take profits way too soon because it is the easy thing to do and because of this they never generate the handful of big winners that are required to pay for all the small losing trades. 90% of traders lose money at the end of the year because they do the easy thing. If we want to be part of the 10% that makes money then we have to do the hard thing. This is the true essence of being a contrarian trader.
  7. Patience is one of the key ingredients in my trading strategy, it stops me rushing in to things which in current market conditions helps me... Remember that knowledge is important, but patience and discipline are more important and tend to be harder to come by. Even if your system requires you to trade short-term you shouldn't be jumping in all the time believing that every move has to be traded because there's money to be made on every trade... (actually there is but that doesn't mean you can monetise it!).
  8. So patience guards against overtrading in the markets. Patience for a trader is an invaluable attribute to possess; the ability to wait for a trading setup or market opportunity and the patience to keep a running trade open without interference will surely help you create the gains you targeted. In fact, you can greatly improve your chances of success simply by having the discipline and patience to wait for the right opportunity. Take your time and only go for the best of opportunities making sure that the elements of your trading strategy are satisfied before entering the trade. Never worry about missing the boat and accept that waiting on the sidelines is a vital part of the game. Set strict targets for profits and losses and preferably the trade should offer a favourable risk/reward ratio.
  9. All the best traders make mistakes. The guys who make the most money, are those who maintain a position and stick with it if they get the direction right of course. The skill is limiting your losses and running your winning trades. Never fund a losing trade but also never keep too tight a stop. How many of us can say how much we would have made if only we had held on just that little bit more?
  10. And don't give up. Keep plugging away. An experienced broker once told me that there are quite a number of good analysts in the City, but very few of them can manage money. At the time I didn't understand that but in fact he was very much spot on. As you evolve you will find out the real problem that traders face : THEMSELVES. This is where the journey becomes interesting.

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND


The Trend is your Friend

TRADERS’ BIGGEST PROBLEM

Trading is likely the most exciting way to make a living and/or accumulate a fortune. You are your own boss and your own worst enemy. You alone must deal with the frustration of your own choices. If you lose, there is no one else to blame. You made the losing decision, even if that decision was to let someone else make your decision or to follow someone else’s approach. On the other hand, if you win, don’t have to say “Thank you” to anyone. You are not obliged to anyone but yourself. There is no politics nor anyone to whom you must cater. You are truly “sliding down the razor blade of life.”

But here is the problem. Most of the time, the market goes nowhere. Only 25 to 40 percent of the time does the market trend, during the remaining 60 to 75 percent of the time the market goes nowhere. Most professional traders make nearly all of their profits in a trending market.

Here is our problem: we don’t want to spend out time entering and exiting a market that is going nowhere. If the market is going nowhere, then the opportunity is NO-WHERE. We want to change that to opportunity is NOW-HERE.

The Trend is your Friend

Weekly Chart of BHEL showing a three year trading range which finally breaks out into a trend.

TREND AND TRADING RANGE 
Traders try to profit from changes in prices: Buy low and sell high or sell short high and cover low. Even a quick look at a chart reveals that markets spend most of their time in trading ranges. They spend less time in trends.

A trend exits when prices keep rising or falling over time. In an uptrend, each rally reaches a higher high than the preceding rally and each decline stops at a higher level than the preceding decline. In a downtrend each decline falls to a lower low than the preceding decline and each rally stops at a lower level than the preceding decline and each rally stops at a lower level than the preceding rally. In trading range most rallies stop at about the same high and declines peter out at about the low.

A trader needs to identify trends and trading ranges. It is easier to trade during trends than in trading ranges.


PSYCHOLOGY OF TRENDS AND TRADING RANGE

An uptrend emerges when bulls are stronger than bears and their buying forces prices up. If bears manage to push prices down, bulls return in force, break the decline, and force prices to a new high. Downtrends occur when bears are stronger and their selling pushes markets down. When a flurry of buying lifts prices, bears sell short into that rally, stop it, and send prices to new lows.

When bulls or bears are equally strong or weak, prices stay in a trading range. When bulls manage to push prices up, bears sell short into that rally and prices fall. Bargain hunters step in and break the decline, bears cover shorts, their buying fuels a minor rally, and the cycle repeats.

Prices in trading ranges go nowhere, just as crowds spend most of their time in aimless mulling. Markets spend most of their time in trading ranges than trends because aimlessness is more common among people than purposeful action. When a crowd becomes agitated or excited, it surges and creates a trend.


THE HARD RIGHT EDGE

Identifying trends and trading ranges is one of the hardest tasks in technical analysis. It is easy to find them in the middle of the chart, but the closer you get to the right edge, the harder it gets.

Trends and trading ranges clearly stand out on old charts. Experts show those charts on seminars and make it seem easy to catch trends. Trouble is your broker does not allow you to trade in the middle of the chart. He says you must make your trading decisions at the hard right edge of the chart!

The past is fixed and easy to analyze. The future is fluid and uncertain. By the time you identify a trend, a good chunk of it is already gone. Nobody rings a bell when a trend dissolves into a trading range. By the time you recognize the change, you will lose some money trying to trade as if the market was still trending.

Most people cannot accept uncertainty. They have a strong emotional need to be right. They hang on to losing positions, waiting for the market to turn and make them whole. Trying to be right in the market is very expensive. Professional traders get out of losing trades fast. When the market deviates from your analysis, you have to cut losses without fuss or emotions.


THREE IMPORTANT TRENDS
You may be asking yourself the question, "What is a trend and how long does it last?" There are countless numbers of trends, but before the advent of intraday charts, there were three generally accepted durations: primary, intermediate and short-term.


The main or primary trend, is often referred to as a bull or bear market. Bulls go up and bears go down. They typically last about nine months to two years with bear market troughs separated by just under four years. These trends revolve around the business cycle and tend to repeat whether the weak phase of the cycle is an actual recession, or if there is no recession and just slow growth.

Primary Trend
Bull & Bear markets last approximately 4 years
Primary trends are not straight-line affairs, but are a series of rallies and reactions. These series of rallies and reactions are known asintermediate or medium term trends.

The intermediate or medium term trend can vary in length from as little as six weeks to as much as nine months, or the length of a very short primary trend.

Intermediate trends typically develop as a result of changing perceptions concerning economic, financial, or political events. It is important to have some understanding of the direction of the main or primary trend because rallies in bull markets are strong and reactions are weak. On the other hand, reactions in bear markets are strong and rallies are short, sharp, and generally, unpredictable.

If you have a fix on the underlying primary trend, you will be better prepared for the nature of the intermediate rallies and the reactions that will unfold.

In turn, intermediate trends can be broken down into short-term trends, which last from as little as two weeks to as much as five or six weeks.
Market Cycle Model

As an investor, it is best to accumulate when the primary trend is in the early stages of reversing from down to up, and liquidate when the trend is reversing from up to down. Second, as traders, we are better off if we position ourselves with the long side in a bull market since that is when short-term uptrends tend to have the greatest magnitude. By the same token, it does not usually pay to short in a bull market because declines can be quite brief and reversals to the upside unexpectedly sharp. If you are going to make a mistake, it is more likely to come from a counter-cyclical trade.


If you're an intraday trader, you may think all of this does not apply to you, but really, it does. It is important to remember that even on intraday charts, the predominant trend determines the magnitude and duration of the shorter moves. You may not feel a three-hour rally is closely related to a two-year primary bull market move, but it is just as related as a five or six-day trend.

Charles Dow, the author of the venerable Dow theory, stated at the turn of the century that the stock market had three trends. The long term trend lasted several years, the intermediate trend lasted several months and anything shorter than that was a minor trend. Robert Rhea, the great market technician of the 1930s, compared the three market trends to a tide, a wave and a ripple. He believed that traders should trade in the direction of the market tide and take advantage of the waves and the ripples to time your entry and exit.

CONFLICTING TIMEFRAMESMost traders ignore the fact that markets usually are both in a trend and in a trading range at the same time! They pick one time frame such as daily or hourly and look for trades on the daily charts. With their attention fixed on daily or hourly charts, trends from other time frames, such as weekly or 10 minute trend keep sneaking up on them and wrecking havoc with their plans.

Markets exist in several time frames simultaneously. They exist on a 10 minute chart, an hourly chart, a daily chart, a weekly chart, and any other chart. Traders often feel confused when they look at charts in different time frames and they see the markets going in several directions at once. The market may look for a buy on a daily chart and a sell on the weekly chart, and vice versa. The signals in different time frames of the same market often contradict one another. Which of them will you follow? Most traders pick one time frame and close their eyes to others – until a sudden move outside of “their” time frame hits them.

A FACTOR OF FIVE

When you are in doubt of a trend, step back and examine the charts in a timeframe that is larger than the one you are trying to trade. A factor of 5 links all timeframes. If you start with the weekly charts and proceed to the dailies, you will notice that there are five trading days to a week. As your timeframe narrows, you will look at hourly charts – and there are approximately 5 to 6 trading hours to a trading day. Intra day traders can proceed even further and look at 10 minute charts, followed by 2 minute charts. All are related by a factor of five. The proper way to analyze any market is to analyze it in at least two time frames. If you analyze daily charts, you must first examine the weekly charts and so on. This search for greater perspective is one of the key principles of the Traders Edge Multiple Time Frame Trading System.

METHOD AND TECHNIQUES

There is no single magic method to identifying trends and trading ranges. There are several methods and it pays to combine them. When they confirm one another, their message is reinforced. When they contradict one another, it is better to pass up the trade.
  1. Analyze the pattern of highs and lows. When rallies keep reaching higher levels and declines keep stopping at higher levels they identify an uptrend. The pattern of lower lows and lower highs identifies a downtrend, and the pattern of irregular highs and lows points to a trading range.
     
  2. Draw an uptrendline connecting significant recent lows and a downtrendline connecting significant recent highs. The slope of the latest trendline identifies the current trend A significant high or low on a daily chart is the highest high or lowest low for at least a week. As you study charts, you become better at identifying those points. Technical analysis is partly a science and partly an art.
     
  3. The direction of a slope of a moving average identifies the trend. If a moving average has not reached a new high or low in a month, then the market is in a trading range.
     
  4. Several market indicators, such as MACD and the Directional system help identify trends. The Directional system is especially good at catching early stages of new trends.
CONCLUSION

Markets change, new opportunities emerge, and old ones melt away. Good traders are successful but humble people – they always learn. The primary purpose of the market is to find immediately the exact price where there is an equal disagreement on value and an agreement on price. Speculators get paid for buying what nobody wants when nobody wants it and selling what everybody wants when everybody wants it. Remember there is no such thing as a bad trader. There is only a well trained or badly trained trader..

SOURCES : TEI

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

INDIAN RAILWAY BUDGET 2012--2013


HIGHLIGHTS OF THE RAILWAY BUDGET 2012-13
Focus and Long Term Goals
1. Safety;
2. Consolidation;
3. Decongestion & Capacity Augmentation;
4. Modernisation;
5. Improve Operating Ratio from 95% to 74% in terminal year of 12th Five Year Plan.
Measures proposed
> Setting up of a Railway Safety Authority as a statutory regulatory body asrecommended by Kakodkar Committee;
> Creating Missions as recommended by Pitroda Committee to implementthe modernization programme
> Aligning the Annual Plan investment with five focus areas identified by Kakodkar and Pitroda Committees i.e. (a) Track (b) Bridges (c)Signalling & Telecommunication (d) Rolling Stock and (e) Stations & Freight Terminals.
> New Board Member (Safety/Research) to be inducted.
> Rail-Road Grade Separation Corporation to be set up to eliminate level crossings.
> Plan allocation to priority works so as to reap benefits after completion in a time bound manner
> Three ‘Safety Villages’ to be set up at Bengaluru, Kharagpur and Lucknow for skill development for disaster management;
Resource Mobilization
> Indian Railway Station Development Corporation to be set up to redevelop stations through PPP mode;
> Logistics Corporation to be set up for development & management of existing railway goods sheds and multi-modal logistics parks.
> Private investment schemes for Wagon leasing, Sidings, Private Freight Terminals, Container train operations, Rail connectivity projects (R3i and R2C-i) being made more attractive to PPP partners.
> New Board Member (PPP/Marketing) to be inducted
Metropolitan Projects
> Works announced for Kolkata Metro last year progressing satisfactorily and some projects being extended to cover new sections.
> SPV with Andhra Pradesh Government to be set up for commercial management of the MMTS.
> MRVC to carry out feasibility study for construction of faster corridors 2 on CSTM – Panvel and Virar-Vasai-Diva-Panvel sections.
> Work to be taken up facilitating running of 12-car rakes on Harbour line.
> Financial modeling of the elevated rail corridor from Churchgate to Virar firmed up with Government of Maharashtra through PPP mode.
> A pre-feasibility survey for a similar corridor between CST and Kalyan proposed.
> A National High Speed Rail Authority to be set up.
> Pre-feasibility studies on six high speed corridors already completed; study on Delhi-Jaipur-Ajmer-Jodhpur to be taken up in 2012-13.
Cooperation with State Governments
> MoU signed with Government of Chhatisgarh to develop three rail corridors in state for movement of passenger and freight.
> 31 projects covering a length of more than 5000 km in 10 states being executed with contribution from state governments.
> Four projects on cost sharing basis with Governments of Haryana, Andhra Pradesh & West Bengal proposed.
> 12 projects on cost sharing basis with Government of Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Rajasthan & Maharashtra sent to
Planning Commission for approval.
> 17 projects to facilitate the first and list mile connectivity proactively sanctioned and another 28 projects identified.
Connectivity to neighbouring countries
> Construction of Jogbani-Biratnagar and Jaynagar-Bijalpura-Bardibas new lines already in progress to provide connectivity to Nepal.
> Project to connect Agartala with Akhaura in Bangladesh to be taken up in 2012-13.
Rail Based Industries
> Rail Wheel Plan at Chhapra produced 78 wheels during 2011-12; the plant would be fully commissioned in 2012-13.
> Rae Bareli coach factory manufactured 10 coaches in 2011-12; phase-II of the factory would be commissioned
in 2012-13.
> Diesel Component Factory at Dankuni has commenced trial production and would be fully commissioned in 2012-13.
> Wagon Manufacturing Factory at Kulti and fiat bogey frame unit at Budge Budge to commence production in 2012-13.
> A wagon factory to be set up at Sitapali (Ganjam District of Odisha).
> A rail coach factory with the support of Government of Kerala to be set 3 up at Palakkad; two additional new manufacturing units for coaches to be established in the Kutch area in Gujarat and at Kolar in Karnataka with active participation of the State Governments.
> A plant for manufacture of traction alternators for high horse power diesel locomotives to be set up at Vidisha in Madhya Pradesh.
> Setting up of a factory at Shyamnagar in West Bengal to manufacture next generation technology propulsion system for use in high power electric locomotives.
> Augmenting the electric loco Ancillaries Unit of CLW at Dankuni for fabrication of locomotive shells and assembly of three phase locomotives for manufacturing of new generation 9000 HP locomotives.
> Sick wagon unit ‘Braithwaite’ taken over by Railways has been conferred with Turn Around Award by the Board of Reconstruction of Public Sector Enterprise.
Green Initiatives
> Setting up of 72 MW capacity windmill plants in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal.
> Setting up of 200 remote railway stations as ‘green energy stations’powered entirely by solar energy.
> Providing solar lighting system at 1000 manned level crossing gates.
> Introduction of mobile emission test cars to measure pollution level of diesel locomotives.
> Commissioning of two bio diesel plants at Raipur and Tondiarpet.
> Introduction of a ‘Green Train’ to run through the pristine forests of North Bengal.
> 2500 coaches to be equipped with bio toilets.
Passenger/Rail Users’ Amenities
> Installation of 321 escalators at important stations of which 50 will be commissioned in 2012-13.
> 12 State of art mechanized laundries already set up and 6 more to become functional during 2012-13.
> SMS on passenger mobile phone in case of e-ticket to be accepted as proof of valid reservation.
> Introduction of regional cuisine at affordable rates; launching of Book-a meal scheme to provide multiple choice of meals through SMS or email.
> Setting up of AC Executive lounges at important stations.
> Setting up of new Rail Neer Plants at Palur in Tamil Nadu and Ambernath in Maharashtra.
> Expansion of housekeeping schemes for trains.
> Introduction of Rail Bandhu on-board magazines on Rajdhanis, Shatabdis and Duronto trains.
> Introduction of coin/currency operated ticket vending machines.
> Introduction of Alternate Train Accommodation System to accommodate waitlisted passengers on alternate trains.
> Introduction of model rake with world class interiors.
> Upgradation of 929 stations as Adarsh Stations including 84 stations proposed in 2012-13; 490 stations have been completed so far.
> Construction of multi-functional complexes at 24 locations completed.
> Sale of PRS tickets through 151 post offices.
> Implementation of electronic transmission of RR for freight traffic.
> Introduction of satellite based real time train information system (SIMRAN) to provide train running information to passengers through SMS, internet, etc.
> On board passenger displays indicating next halt station and expected arrival time to be introduced.
> Specially designed coaches for differently-abled persons to be provided in each Mail/Express trains.
> Engaging reputed professional agencies for pantry cars and base kitchens.
> Specialised House-keeping body to be set up for cleanliness of stations and the trains.
> Dedicated Railway Design Centre to be set up in the National Institute of Design, Ahmedabad.
Coaching terminals
> Survey and feasiblity study for new coaching terminals at Nemam, Kottayam, Mau and Dankuni to be taken up.
> Pre-feasibility study for development of Roypuram station in Tamil Nadu for which many representations have been received.
> New coaching complex at Panvel and coach maintenance complex at Kalamboli in partnership with Government of Maharashtra through CIDCO planned.
> New coaching terminal at Naihati, the birth place of Rishi Bankim Chandra Chattopadhyay commemorating him on 175th Birth Anniversary
Annual Plan 2012-13
> Highest ever plan outlay of `60,100 cr.
– Gross Budgetary Support – `24,000 cr
– Railway Safety Fund – `2,000 cr
– Internal Resources – `18,050 cr.
– Market Borrowing – `15,000 cr; PPP – `1,050 cr.
> 725 km new lines, 700 km doubling, 800 km gauge conversion and 1100 km electrification targeted in 2012-13.
> `6,872 cr provided for new lines, `3,393 cr for doubling, `1,950 cr for gauge conversion, `828 cr for electrification.
Financial Performance 2011-12
> Loading target reduced by 23 MT to 970 MT.
> Gross Traffic Receipts fixed at `1,03,917 cr in RE, short by `2,322 cr over Budget Estimates.
> Ordinary Working Expenses fixed at `75,650 cr, an increase of `2,000 cr over Budget Estimates; Pension payments also up by `1,000 cr.
> Current dividend liability to be fully discharged.
> Excess of `1,492 cr as against the budget amount of `5,258 cr.
> A loan of `3,000 cr extended by MoF to meet requirement of safety related works under Development Fund.
> Operating Ratio of 95.0% as compared to 91.1% in Budget Estimates.
Budget Estimates 2012-13
> Freight loading of 1025 MT, 55 MT more than 2011-12.
> Passenger growth – 5.4%.
> Gross Traffic Receipts – `1,32,552 cr i.e. 27.6% increase over RE, 2011-12
> Ordinary Working Expenses – `84,400 cr.
> Appropriation to DRF at `9,500 cr and to Pension Fund at `18,500 cr.
> Dividend payment estimated at `6,676 cr.
> Loan of `3,000 cr taken in 2011-12 to be fully repaid along with interest.
> Operating Ratio estimated at 84.9%.
Security
> Installation of Integrated Security System at all 202 identified stations to be completed in 2012-13.
> Escorting of trains by RPF/GRP extended to 3500 trains.
> Integration of RPF helpline with the All India Passenger Helpline.
Staff Welfare
> Introduction of a wellness programme for railway staff at their work places.
> Ensuring proper rest for skilled and technical staff including the running crew.
> NID to design appropriate outfits for various categories of workforce. Training and Recruitment
> Over 80000 persons recruited in 2011-12;
> Over one lakh persons to be recruited in 2012-13 – backlog of SC/ST/OBC and other categories to be wiped off.
Sports
> 7 Railway sportsperson honored with Arjuna Award and Major Dhyanchand Award in 2011-12.
> 5 Railway sportsperson qualified for Olympics 2012.
> Development of a roadmap for railway sports.
> Institution of ‘Rail Khel Ratna’ Award for 10 rail sports-persons every year.
Concessions
> Value of concession granted to travelers is more than `800 cr per year.
> 50% concession in fare in AC-2, AC-3, Chair Car & Sleeper classes to patients suffering from ‘Aplastic Anaemia’ and ‘Sickle Cell Anaemia’.
> Extending the facility of travel by Rajdhani and Shatabdi trains to Arjuna Awardees.
> Travel distance under ‘Izzat Scheme’ to increase from 100 kms to 150 kms.
Suburban Services
> 75 additional services to run in Mumbai suburban.
> 18 additional services to be run in Chennai area.
> 44 new suburban services to be introduced in Kolkata area.
> 50 new services to be introduced in Kolkata Metro in 2012-13.
Trains
> 75 new Express trains to be introduced.
> 21 new passenger services, 9 DEMU services and 8 MEMU services to be introduced.
> Run of 39 trains to be extended.
> Frequency of 23 trains to be increased.
Tariff Proposals
> Setting up of Railway Tariff Regulatory Authority to be considered;
> Passenger fares increased by 2 paise per km for suburban and ordinary second class; 3 paise per km for mail/express second class; 5 paise perkm for sleeper class; 10 paise per km for AC Chair Car, AC 3 tier and First Class; 15 paise per km for AC 2 tier and 30 paise per km for AC I.
> Fares to be rounded off to the next nearest five rupees.
> Minimum fare and platform tickets to cost `5.
> Fuel Adjustment Component (FAC) in fares contemplated.

Sunday, March 11, 2012

Do Operators run the stock market

There is a general belief among most investors that markets are controlled by operators and it is no place for small investors. It is believed that the operators enriched themselves at the cost of small investors. Two scams of 1992 and 2002 had certain operators at the center of the storm. There were other star players in the market also in the past that had a big role to play in the market movements. Let us examine the validity of the statement that Stock Markets are run by operators.

An operator is a person who is supposed to drive the market price of a particular share that is he decides what should be the pricing of the share and whether it should go up or down. It is also believed that operators in association with the management of the company first acquire certain stocks in the market and subsequently through rumors and such other communication mechanism create a mass interest in the share. Subsequently once the general public starts believing in the company s prosperity the operators sells the shares and makes handsome profits. Some operators also use circuit mechanism of stock exchanges to hike the price. The circuit mechanism allows the operator to put an order at a price which is 3 to 8% above the previous days closing. Once the share hits upper circuit there are very few sellers in the market since they believe that if the share has hit upper circuit it is likely to go up further. This is the modus operandi of an operator. For an operator to be successful some factors are very 
important. Such as connivance with the management, low capital base of the company so that manipulation can be done with very little capital and a mass following.

Is manipulation possible in high volume shares? Let us now look at the trading statistics reported by stock exchanges (data of a particular date). Top 30 scripts i.e. 10 in each group, account for 41% of turnover in NSE and 37% of the turnover in BSE. Both the Exchanges put together this translates in to a value of about 4100 crores on a daily basis. As per the market share reported of brokers by NSE (NSE Bulletin) top 10 trading members account for just 24% of the market share i.e. on an average each broker would have about 2.4% of the market across all company shares traded by the company. Hence, the dominance that a single broker can have on the volumes in the market is minimal in highly traded scrips.

Then we move to low value high volume traded scrips. As per the data is provided by newspapers separately on Quotations page, the aggregate value of shares traded in this category on a particular date was studied. The turnover for BSE in such scrips was Rs.34,03,470 i.e. .01% of total turnover and for NSE is Rs.20,28,050 i.e. 0.003% and in terms of number of shares traded it is 1.5 % in case of BSE and in case of NSE 0.45%. This is one area where low funds can help to move the prices and give a false sense of liquidity. Hence investors are advised to refrain from investing in scrip just because it is low value; the merit of the share should be looked into before making the investments.

The Stock exchanges have a system of guiding the investors on stock selection by way of classifying the companies into various groups. A group stocks are highly liquid and good performing companies. B1 group are again good performing companies with lesser liquidity then A group stocks. B2 are stocks that have low capital bases and less liquid. Companies that do not adhere to Listing agreement are categorized as Z group. These companies do not attend to investor complaints and fail to file various investor related information with the stock exchange such as quarterly working, book closure dates etc. Shares which have concentrated activity and unusual price movements are categorized in T 2 T or trade for trade settlement, ie every sale and purchase must result in delivery and positions cannot be squared off during the day. This classification should be kept in mind while selecting a company for investment. Stock exchanges also verify the news items appearing in leading

newspapers and get companies to clarify on rumours. This information is also of vital importance since operators and company managements at times plant false stories in newspaper to mislead the public.

Special laws have been put in place to act as deterrent to such manipulation. The Insider Trading Regulations and Fraudulent and Unfair Trade Practices regulations are the tools available to SEBI to taken action against those manipulating the markets. The punishment is maximum penalty of Rs. 25 crores and imprisonment. Both these laws have been enacted in early 2000. Hence their effectiveness will be proved only with efflux of time. Till the enactment of these laws the prosecution of persons indulging in market manipulation had to be tried under the general legal system, the delays in the same are not unknown to us.

We always blame the regulators, brokers and exchanges if scams happen in markets. However the menace of operators will go only if we stop following their leads in the market. Tips given by operators are widely followed, and so long as you make money on these tips we do not blame anyone. However once the operator weakens then there is fall in prices and the blame game starts. Operators are creations of society and the greed inherent in all of us. Easy money by riding the operator s tips is a strong attraction. Scams bring down the prices of not only the shares which were manipulated by the operators but also all other fundamentally good shares also held by us. 

Mass following that the operators thrives on would be absent if we refrain from buying those shares that are remotely associated with any operator. Reporting wrongful activities of company managements, dabba traders and other market participants will help the regulator in directing their efforts on the wrong doers. Remember, being a spectator to a wrongdoing and not reporting the same is as bad as committing the crime. 

Thursday, March 08, 2012

A SUCCESSFUL INVESTMENT JOURNEY


The most successful investors were not made in one day. Learning the ins and outs of the financial world and your personality as an investor, takes time and patience, not to mention trial and error. In this article, we'll lead you through the first seven steps of your expedition into investing and show you what to look out for along the way.

1. Getting StartedSuccessful investing is a journey, not a one-time event, and you'll need to prepare yourself as if you were going on a long trip. What is your destination? How long will it take you to get there? What resources will you need? Begin by defining your destination, and then plan your investment journey accordingly. For example, are you looking to retire in 20 years at age 55? How much money will you need to do this? You must first ask these questions. The plan that you come up with will depend on your investment goals.

2. Know What WorksRead books or take an investment course that deals with modern financial ideas. The people who came up with theories such as portfolio optimizationdiversification and market efficiency received their Nobel prizes for good reason. Investing is a combination of science (financial fundamentals) and art (qualitative factors). The scientific aspect of finance is a solid place to start and should not be ignored. If science is not your strong suit, don't fret. There are many texts, such as "Stocks For The Long Run" by Jeremy Siegel, that explain high-level finance ideas in a way that is easy to understand.

Once you know what works in the market, you can come up with simple rules that work for you. For example, Warren Buffett is one of the most successful investors ever. His simple investment style is summed up in this well-known quote: "If I cannot understand it, I will not invest in it." It has served him well. While he missed the tech upturn, he avoided the subsequent devastating downturn of the high-tech bubble of 2000.

3. Know Yourself
Nobody knows you and your situation better than you do. Therefore, you may be the most qualified person to do your own investing - all you need is a bit of help. Identify the personality traits that can assist you or prevent you from investing successfully, and manage them accordingly.

A very useful behavioral model that helps investors to understand themselves was developed by Bailard, Biehl and Kaiser. 
The model classifies investors according to two personality characteristics: method of action (careful or impetuous) and level of confidence (confident or anxious). Based on these personality traits, the BB&K model divides investors into five groups:
  • Individualist - careful and confident, often takes a "do-it-yourself" approach
  • Adventurer - volatile, entrepreneurial and strong-willed
  • Celebrity - follower of the latest investment fads
  • Guardian - highly risk averse, wealth preserver
  • Straight Arrow - shares the characteristics of all of the above equally
Not surprisingly, the best investment results tend to be realized by an individualist, or someone who exhibits analytical behavior and confidence, and has a good eye for value. However, if you determine that your personality traits resemble those of an adventurer, you can still achieve investment success if you adjust your strategy accordingly. In other words, regardless of which group you fit into, you should manage your core assets in a systematic and disciplined way.

4. Know Your Friends and Enemies 
Beware of false friends who only pretend to be on your side, such as certain unscrupulous investment professionals whose interests may conflict with yours. You must also remember that, as an investor, you are competing with large financial institutions that have more resources, including greater and faster access to information.

Bear in mind that you are potentially your own worst enemy. Depending on your personality, strategy and particular circumstances, you may be sabotaging your own success. A guardian would be going against his or her personality type if he or she were to follow the latest market craze and seek short-term profits. Because you are risk averse and a wealth preserver, you would be affected far more by large losses that can result from high-risk, high-return investments. Be honest with yourself, and indentify and modify factors that are preventing you from investing successfully or are moving you away from your comfort zone.

5. Find the Right Path
Your level of knowledge, personality and resources should determine the path that you choose. Generally, investors adopt one of the following strategies:
  • Don't put all of your eggs in one basket. In other words, diversify.
  • Put all of your eggs in one basket, but watch your basket carefully.
  • Combine both of these strategies by making tactical bets on a core passive portfolio.

    Most successful investors start with low-risk diversified portfolios and gradually learn by doing. As investors gain greater knowledge over time, they become better suited to taking a more active stance in their portfolios (i.e. tactical bets).

  • 6. Be Disciplined
    Sticking with the optimal long-term strategy may not be the most exciting investing choice. However, your chances of success should increase if you stay the course without letting your emotions, or "false friends," get the upper hand.

    7. Be Willing to Learn 
    The market is hard to predict, but one thing is certain: it will be volatile. Learning to be a successful investor is a gradual process and the investment journey is typically a long one. At times, the market will prove you wrong. Acknowledge that and learn from your mistakes. When you succeed, celebrate.

    The Bottom LineWhat you achieve as an investor will depend on your goals, but sticking to these seven simple steps will help keep you on the right path. Bon voyage!