THE END SESSION ( 30 / 03 )

Sensex, Nifty attain 12-week closing high

Metal, banking and capital goods stocks led a rally on the domestic bourses triggered by expectations that US interest rates will not be raised quickly, with the barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, surpassing the psychologically important 25,000 mark. The Sensex jumped 438.12 points or 1.76% to settle at 25,338.58. The 50-unit Nifty 50 index rose 138.20 points or 1.82% to settle at 7,735.20. The two benchmark indices hovered in positive zone throughout the trading session after opening with upward gap. The Sensex and the Nifty, both, hit 12-week closing high. The two benchmark indices snapped a two-day losing streak. Barring the S&P BSE Telecom index, all other sectoral indices on BSE registered gains.

World stocks rose as investors welcomed the latest signal from the US Federal Reserve that it would move slowly to raise interest rates in the US.

Bank stocks edged higher after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) clarified some of the provisions relating to the Marginal Cost of Funds based Lending Rate (MCLR) system, which comes into effect from 1 April 2016. Bharat Heavy Electricals (Bhel) edged higher after the company announced successful commissioning of a 250 megawatts (MW) coal-based thermal power plant (TPP) in Bihar.

Steel stocks gained on reports that the government has extended safeguard import taxes on some steel products until March 2018 to curb imports of cheap Chinese steel and shield domestic mills. Tata Steel surged after the company announced that it has decided to explore all options for portfolio restructuring including the potential divestment of its UK subsidiary Tata Steel UK, in whole or in parts.

Shares of HealthCare Global Enterprises (HGEL), a provider of speciality healthcare in India, slumped on its debut.

The Sensex rose 438.12 points or 1.76% to settle at 25,338.58, its highest closing level since 6 January 2016. The index jumped 455.86 points, or 1.83% at the day's high of 25,356.32. The barometer index rose 154.96 points, or 0.62% at the day's low of 25,055.42.

The Nifty rose 138.20 points or 1.82% to settle at 7,735.20, its highest closing level since 6 January 2016. The Nifty rose 144.95 points, or 1.91% at the day's high of 7,741.95. The index rose 46.45 points, or 0.61% at the day's low of 7,643.45.

The broad market depicted strength. More than two stocks rose for each stock that dropped on BSE. 1,871 shares rose and 756 shares fell. A total of 153 shares were unchanged. A number of stocks forming part of the broad based BSE Small-Cap index registered gains exceeding 3%. The BSE Small-Cap index rose 1.87%. The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 1.81%. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.

Among the sectoral indices on BSE, the S&P BSE Realty index (up 3.85%), the S&P BSE Bankex (up 3.13%), the S&P BSE Metal index (up 3.06%), the S&P BSE Capital Goods index (up 2.73%), the S&P BSE Industrials index (up 2.58%), the S&P BSE Power index (up 2.53%), the S&P BSE Basic Materials index (up 2.49%), the S&P BSE Utilities index (up 2.3%), the S&P BSE Finance index (up 2.11%), the S&P BSE Healthcare index (up 1.99%), the S&P BSE Oil & Gas index (up 1.98%), the S&P BSE Consumer Durables index (up 1.83%) outperformed the Sensex. The S&P BSE FMCG index (up 1.67%), the S&P BSE Auto index (up 1.53%), the S&P BSE Consumer Discretionary Goods & Services index (up 1.4%), the S&P BSE Energy index (up 1.34%), the S&P BSE IT index (up 1.03%), the S&P BSE Teck index (up 0.75%) and the S&P BSE Telecom index (down 0.13%) underperformed the Sensex.

The total turnover on BSE amounted to Rs 2406 crore, lower than turnover of Rs 3595.61 crore registered during the previous trading session.

In overseas stock markets, Asian and European stocks edged higher tracking overnight gains in US shares as investors welcomed the latest signal from the US Federal Reserve that it would move slowly to raise interest rates in the US. US stocks edged higher yesterday, 29 March 2016, after Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen in a speech in New York reiterated a need to proceed cautiously in lifting interest rates in the backdrop of weaker-than-expected growth overseas and a cloudy US inflation outlook.

Capital goods stocks gained. ABB India (up 1.95%), BEML (up 0.34%), Bharat Electronics (up 1.98%), Crompton Greaves (up 1.88%), L&T (up 3.07%), Siemens (up 2.81%) and Thermax (up 3.99%) rose.

Bharat Heavy Electricals (Bhel) rose 3.47% after the company announced successful commissioning of a 250 megawatts (MW) coal-based thermal power plant (TPP) in Bihar. The 250 MW unit has been commissioned at the upcoming greenfield 1,000 MW Nabinagar Thermal Power Project which is being set up by Bhartiya Rail Bijlee Company (BRBCL), a joint venture of NTPC and the Indian Railways, Bhel said.

Shares of state-run gas transmission and distribution firm GAIL (India) gained 3.53% after the company announced that it has started drilling the first exploratory well as operator in its NELP-IX block in Cambay Basin. GAIL (India) said that the process, technically called spudding started on 27 March 2016 in the well situated in Dugari village in Tarapur Tehsil of Anand district of Gujarat. GAIL (India) is the lead operator of the block with 25% participating interest. Other partners in this block are Bharat Petro Resources, Engineers India, Monnet Ispat Energy and Bharat Forge Infrastructure. The consortium will drill eight exploratory wells in the initial exploration phase as per minimum work commitment of production sharing contract (PSC). While this phase will continue till March 2017, acquisition, processing and interpretation (API) of 2D and 3D seismic data have already been completed, GAIL (India) said.

Index heavyweight and cigarette major ITC rose 1.69% to Rs 325.60. The stock hit a high of Rs 328.40 and low of Rs 320.50 in intraday trade.

Bank stocks edged higher after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) after market hours yesterday, 29 March 2016, clarified some of the provisions relating to the Marginal Cost of Funds based Lending Rate (MCLR) system, which comes into effect from 1 April 2016. Among state-run banks, State Bank of India (up 4.04%), Union Bank of India (up 3.73%), Punjab National Bank (up 4.03%), Canara Bank (up 3.46%), IDBI Bank (up 1.76%), Bank of India (up 2.33%), Corporation Bank (up 3.19%), Andhra Bank (up 3.5%), Allahabad Bank (up 2.2%) and Bank of Baroda (up 3.91%) edged higher.

United Bank of India rose 0.79% to Rs 19.15. The bank said before market hours today, 30 March 2016, that it is initiating necessary steps after the Ministry of Finance conveyed that the Government of India has decided to infuse capital funds to the tune of Rs 480 crore in the bank by way of preferential allotment of equity shares in favour of the Government of India.

Vijaya Bank was up 1.46% at Rs 31.30. The bank said before market hours today, 30 March 2016, that the Board of Directors of the bank in a meeting held on 29 March 2016 accorded approval for the infusion of capital funds to the tune of Rs 220 crore by way of preferential allotment of equity shares in favour of Government of India as part of capital infusion for FY 2016. Government of India has already accorded approval for the capital infusion.

Among private sector banks, ICICI Bank (up 6.54%), IndusInd Bank (up 1.95%), Kotak Mahindra Bank (up 1.68%), Axis Bank (up 2.97%), Yes Bank (up 2.52%) and HDFC Bank (up 1.03%), edged higher.

RBI clarified that fixed-rate loans of up to three years' tenor will be priced with reference to MCLR with effect from 1 April 2016. Fixed rate loans of tenor above three years will continue to be exempted from MCLR system. As regards the effective date for applying MCLR on floating rate loans, the RBI said that MCLR prevailing on the date of first disbursement, whether partial or full, will be applicable on the floating rate loan and future reset dates determined accordingly.

For computing the marginal cost of funds, commercial banks will have the option to reckon the outstanding balances of deposits and other borrowings as on any day, not more than seven calendar days, prior to the date from which the MCLR becomes effective. The chosen time lag shall be maintained consistently for a period not less one year.

The tenor of the funds in the single largest maturity bucket, provided it is more than 30% of the entire funds, will be reckoned for determining the MCLR. In cases where a bank does not have a single time bucket with more than 30% share of the funds reckoned for MCLR, the weighted average tenor of two or more maturity buckets that together account for more than 30% will be reckoned for determining the MCLR.

Index heavyweight and housing finance major HDFC dropped after the stock turned ex-dividend for interim dividend of Rs 3 per share for the year ending 31 March 2016 (FY 2016). The stock fell 1.03% to Rs 1,116.10. The stock hit a high of Rs 1,130.10 and a low of Rs 1,111.20 so far during the day. Before turning ex-dividend, the stock offered a dividend yield of 0.26% based on the closing price of Rs 1,127.70 yesterday, 29 March 2016.

Pharmaceuticals shares edged higher. Lupin (up 5.95%), Piramal Enterprises (up 4.76%), GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals (up 2.96%), Dr Reddy's Laboratories (up 2.42%), Cipla (up 1.95%), Strides Shasun (up 1.82%), Cadila Healthcare (up 1.27%), Wockhardt (up 0.83%), Aurobindo Pharma (up 0.80%), Divi's Laboratories (up 0.53%) and IPCA Laboratories (up 0.23%), edged higher. Glenmark Pharmaceuticals (down 0.63%) and Alkem Laboratories (down 2.11%), edged lower.

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries rose 2.26% to Rs 812 after the company announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary will acquire the portfolio consisting of 14 established prescription brands from Novartis AG and Novartis Pharma AG (together Novartis) in Japan for a cash consideration of $293 million. These brands have combined annualized revenues of approximately $160 million and address medical conditions across several therapeutic areas. Under the terms of the agreements, Novartis will continue to distribute these brands, for a certain period, pending transfer of all marketing authorizations to Sun Pharma's subsidiary. The acquired brands will be marketed by a reliable and established local marketing partner under the Sun Pharma label. The local marketing partner will also be responsible for distribution of the brands. As per the December 2015 IMS data, the size of the Japanese pharmaceutical market was estimated at $73 billion, accounting for over 7% of the $1 trillion global pharmaceutical market.

Metal and mining stocks gained on renewed buying. Vedanta (up 4.16%), Hindalco Industries (up 3.67%), Hindustan Zinc (up 3.12%), Hindustan Copper (up 2.22%), National Aluminium Company (up 2.14%) edged higher.

Meanwhile, copper edged lower in the global commodities market. High Grade Copper for May 2016 delivery was currently down 0.77% at $2.197 per pound on the COMEX.

NMDC rose 0.55% to Rs 99.75. The stock turned ex-dividend today, 30 March 2016, for interim dividend of Rs 1.50 per share for the year ending 31 March 2016 (FY 2016). Before turning ex-dividend, the stock offered a dividend yield of 1.51% based on the closing price of Rs 99.20 yesterday, 29 March 2016.

Steel stocks gained on reports that the government has extended safeguard import taxes on some steel products until March 2018 to curb imports of cheap Chinese steel and shield domestic mills. Bhushan Steel (up 4.43%), Steel Authority of India (up 3.82%), JSW Steel (up 3.39%), Jindal Steel & Power (up 3.22%), edged higher. The extended import duty will apply to hot-rolled flat products of non-alloy and other alloy steel in coils of 600 mm width. It would start at 20%, minus any existing anti-dumping duty, and be lowered to 10% by March 2018 depending on the value of the goods, reports indicated. The safeguard tax will not be imposed on steel products imported at or above the floor price, reports added.

Tata Steel jumped 6.5% to Rs 323.65 after the company announced that it has decided to explore all options for portfolio restructuring including the potential divestment of its UK subsidiary Tata Steel UK, in whole or in parts. Tata Steel said that its board of directors after reviewing the recent performance of the European business of the company noted with deep concern the deteriorating financial performance of the UK subsidiary in the last twelve months. The management has advised the board of its European holding company Tata Steel Europe to explore all options for portfolio restructuring including the potential divestment of Tata Steel UK, in whole or in parts. Given the severity of the funding requirement in the foreseeable future, the Tata Steel Europe board will be advised to evaluate and implement the most feasible option in a time bound manner, Tata Steel said in a statement.

While global steel demand, especially in developed markets like Europe has remained muted following the financial crisis of 2008, trading conditions in the UK and Europe have rapidly deteriorated more recently, due to structural factors including global oversupply of steel, significant increase in third country exports into Europe, high manufacturing costs, continued weakness in domestic market demand in steel and a volatile currency. These factors are likely to continue into the future and have significantly impacted the long-term competitive position of the UK operations in spite of several initiatives undertaken by the management and the workers of the business in recent years.

Further, the Tata Steel board also reviewed the proposed restructuring and transformation plan for Strip Products UK, prepared by the European subsidiary in consultation with an independent and internationally reputed consultancy firm. 

Based on the review conducted, the Tata Steel board came to a unanimous conclusion that the plan is unaffordable, requires material funding support in the next two years in addition to significant capital commitments over the long term, the assumptions behind it are inherently very risky, and its likelihood of delivery is highly uncertain. Therefore, the board concluded that it would not be able to support the investment necessary to proceed with the proposed transformation plan for strip products UK.

Tata Steel further said that the company's discussions with Greybull in relation to a sale of the UK Long Products business would continue.

Shares of HealthCare Global Enterprises (HGEL), a provider of speciality healthcare in India, slumped on its debut. The stock settled at Rs 170.95 on BSE, a discount of 21.58% compared with the initial public offer price of Rs 218. The stock debuted at Rs 209.80, a discount of 3.76% compared with its initial public offer (IPO) price. The stock hit a high of Rs 211 and a low of Rs 169 in intraday trade. On BSE, 28.86 lakh shares were traded on the counter. HGEL is a provider of speciality healthcare in India, focused on cancer and fertility.

The Sensex and the Nifty snapped a two-day losing streak. The Sensex had lost 437.10 points or 1.72% in the preceding two trading sessions to settle at 24,900.46 yesterday, 29 March 2016, from its close of 25,337.56 on 23 March 2016. The Sensex has risen 2336.58 points or 10.15% in this month so far (till 30 March 2016). The Sensex has fallen 778.96 points or 2.98% in calendar year 2016 so far (till 30 March 2016). From a 52-week low of 22,494.61 hit on 29 February 2016, the Sensex has risen 2843.97 points or 12.64%. The Sensex is off 3756.03 points or 12.9% from a 52-week high of 29,094.61 hit on 15 April 2015. The Sensex is off 4686.16 points or 15.6% from a record high of 30,024.74 hit on 4 March 2015.

Meanwhile, in the government securities (GSec) market, bond prices rose after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) increased the limits for investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPI) in both Central Government Securities and State Development Loans (SDL) for the half year ending September 2016 in two tranches. The yield on 10-year benchmark federal paper 7.59% GS 2026 was currently hovering at 7.4955%, lower than 7.5144% at close in the previous trading session. Bond yields and prices are inversely related.

As per the Medium Term Framework (MTF) announced in October 2015, the limit for investment by FPIs in Central Government Securities for the half year ending September 2016 will be increased in two tranches, i.e., by Rs 10500 crore from 4 April 2016 and by Rs 10000 crore from 5 July 2016. The limit for SDL will be raised in two tranches of Rs 3500 crore each from 4 April 2016 and 5 July 2016.

THE END SESSION ( 29 / 03 )

Sensex, Nifty hit lowest closing level in almost 2 weeks

Losses for stocks of pharma and IT companies and index heavyweight HDFC outweighed gains for stocks of telecom firms, private sector banks and index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL), with the two key benchmark indices registering small losses. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, fell 65.94 points or 0.26% to settle at 24,900.46. The 50-unit Nifty 50 index fell 18.10 points or 0.24% to settle at 7,597. The Sensex failed to hold the psychologically important 25,000 mark after surpassing that level in intraday trade. The Sensex and the Nifty, both, hit their lowest closing level in almost two weeks. The two key benchmark indices dropped for the second day in a row.

Drug maker Lupin edged lower in volatile trade after media reports suggested that the United States Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) has issued Form 483 observations after concluding inspection of Lupin's Mandideep unit in Madhya Pradesh. Tata Steel edged higher on reports that the company's board will meet today, 29 March 2016, where it is widely expected to announce restructuring or selling of some of the European units and job cuts to save costs. In overseas stock markets, European shares reversed initial gains as weakness in oil prices and uncertainty over monetary policy in the United States prompted traders to lock in gains. Earlier during the global day Asian stocks ended on a mixed note ahead of a speech from Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen on US economic outlook and monetary policy. Yellen will deliver a speech at the Economic Club of New York today, 29 March 2016. Markets globally expect Yellen to drop hints about future rate hike path.

The Sensex fell 65.94 points or 0.26% to settle at 24,900.46, its lowest closing level since 17 March 2016. The barometer index rose 112.95 points, or 0.45% at the day's high of 25,079.35. The Sensex fell 130.84 points, or 0.52% at the day's low of 24,835.56.

The Nifty fell 18.10 points or 0.24% to settle at 7,597, its lowest closing level since 17 March 2016. The Nifty rose 37.80 points, or 0.50% at the day's high of 7,652.90. The index fell 32.85 points, or 0.43% at the day's low of 7,582.25.

The market breadth indicating the overall health of the market was weak. On BSE, 1,699 shares declined and 947 shares rose. A total of 163 shares were unchanged. The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 0.21%. The fall in this index was lower than Sensex's decline in percentage terms. The BSE Small-Cap index fell 0.27%. The fall in this index was higher than Sensex's decline in percentage terms.

Among the sectoral indices on BSE, the S&P BSE Healthcare index (down 2.59%), the S&P BSE Capital Goods index (down 0.99%), the S&P BSE Power index (down 0.83%), the S&P BSE Utilities index (down 0.76%), the S&P BSE IT index (down 0.41%), the S&P BSE FMCG index (down 0.39%) underperformed the Sensex. The S&P BSE Teck index (down 0.14%), the S&P BSE Industrials index (down 0.07%), the S&P BSE Finance index (down 0.06%), the S&P BSE Basic Materials index (down 0.01%), the S&P BSE Oil & Gas index (up 0.13%), the S&P BSE Realty index (up 0.2%), the S&P BSE Consumer Discretionary Goods & Services index (up 0.32%), the S&P BSE Bankex (up 0.39%), the S&P BSE Metal index (up 0.4%), the S&P BSE Energy index (up 0.86%), the S&P BSE Auto index (up 0.89%) and the S&P BSE Telecom index (up 1.59%) outperformed the Sensex. The S&P BSE Consumer Durables index ended unchanged at 11,140.09, underperforming the Sensex.

The total turnover on BSE amounted to Rs 3201 crore, higher than turnover of Rs 2741.47 crore registered during the previous trading session.

Pharmaceuticals shares edged lower. Glenmark Pharmaceuticals (down 4.78%), Cipla (down 3.9%), IPCA Laboratories (down 3.34%), Dr Reddy's Laboratories (down 3.02%), Strides Shasun (down 2.12%), Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (down 2.07%), Aurobindo Pharma (down 1.29%), Cadila Healthcare (down 1.13%), GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals (down 0.77%) and Piramal Enterprises (down 0.66%), edged lower. Divi's Laboratories (up 0.37%), Wockhardt (up 1.05%) and Alkem Laboratories (up 1.33%), edged higher.

Drug maker Lupin edged lower in volatile trade after media reports suggested that the United States Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) has issued Form 483 observations after concluding inspection of Lupin's Mandideep unit in Madhya Pradesh. The stock fell 6.23% at Rs 1,402. The stock was volatile. The scrip hit a high of Rs 1,494 and a low of Rs 1,294.05 in intraday trade. Lupin clarified to the stock exchanges during trading hours that the USFDA inspected its Mandideep manufacturing facilities last month. Lupin said that there were total three observations from the USFDA after the inspection. As the site has both dosage form facility and active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) facility, two separate Form 483s were issued with two observations each. One of the observations was common to both these facilities. Lupin said that these observations are minor in nature and it has already addressed these observations. The company said that the management believes that the outcome of the USFDA audit will be a voluntary action and there will be no remediation required.

One of the observations erroneously quoted in news reports relates to the use of non-conforming intermediate for making API prior to 2015. This was done based on laboratory trials and scientific rationale that further processing steps were capable of producing desired quality API. All API batches and drug product batches manufactured using such APIs complied with the specifications and hence were released to market, Lupin said. Appropriate corrective and preventative actions were already implemented in 2015 and were verified by the USFDA investigator, the company said. As an abundant precaution, the company has recalled batches manufactured from this period. There is no material financial impact of the recall, according to Lupin. Lupin further said that it does not expect any disruption to product supply from the Mandideep facility. There are no pending applications from the facility, it added.

Tata Steel rose 1.10% to Rs 303.35 on reports that the company's board will meet today, 29 March 2016, where it is widely expected to announce restructuring or selling of some of the European units and job cuts to save costs.

Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) rose 1.51% to Rs 1,035.90. The stock hit a high of Rs 1,040.90 and a low of Rs 1,022.40 in intraday trade.

Index heavyweight and housing finance major HDFC fell 1.51% to Rs 1,125.60. The stock hit a high of Rs 1,142.35 and a low of Rs 1.123.35 in intraday trade.

Index heavyweight and cigarette major ITC fell 0.39% to Rs 321. The stock hit a high of Rs 327.10 and a low of Rs 319.20 in intraday trade.

Index heavyweight and IT major Infosys fell 0.89% to Rs 1,194. The stock hit a high of Rs 1,217.50 and a low of Rs 1,191.60 in intraday trade. Infosys is set to announce its Q4 March 2016 results on 15 April 2016.

Stocks of public sector banks witnessed a mixed trend. Central Bank of India (up 3.45%), Bank of India (up 0.37%), Bank of Baroda (up 1.15%) and State Bank of India (up 0.45%) edged higher. Dena Bank (down 3.27%), Vijaya Bank (down 2.71%), Union Bank of India (down 0.04%), Punjab National Bank (down 0.79%), Andhra Bank (down 0.4%), Allahabad Bank (down 0.29%), IDBI Bank (down 0.37%), Canara Bank (down 1.45%) and United Bank of India (down 0.26%) declined.

Stocks of private sector banks edged higher. Axis Bank (up 1.47%), HDFC Bank (up 0.52%), Kotak Mahindra Bank (up 0.72%) and Yes Bank (up 0.31%) edged higher.
ICICI Bank was down 0.6% at Rs 223.90. The stock hit a high of Rs 227 and a low of Rs 222.20 in intraday trade.

IndusInd Bank rose 1.74% to Rs 932.50. Ashok Leyland rose 1.81% to Rs 106.60. Ashok Leyland announced before market hours today, 29 March 2016, that it has on 28 March 2016 sold 32.63 lakh equity shares of IndusInd Bank in the open market at a price of Rs 915.96 per share.

Auto stocks were mixed. Maruti Suzuki India (up 2.47%), Eicher Motors (up 1.29%), Hero MotoCorp (up 0.38%) rose. Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) (down 0.91%), Bajaj Auto (down 0.48%) and TVS Motor Company (down 0.1%) declined.

Tata Motors rose 2.27% to Rs 371.50. Tata Motors in a press release dated 27 March 2016 said it has secured a follow-on contract for the supply of additional 619 units of the Tata 6X6 high-mobility, multi-axle truck from the Indian Army.

Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone rose 0.95%. The company at fag end of the trading session announced that it has raised Rs 500 crore from issue non-convertible debentures (NCDs) on private placement basis.

Stocks of public sector firms edged lower. Bharat Heavy Electricals (Bhel) (down 1.94%), GAIL (India) (down 2.84%), Power Grid Corporation of India (down 0.86%), ONGC (down 0.3%) and Oil India (down 1.01%) edged lower.

NTPC fell 1.86% to Rs 126.95. The company announced after market hours yesterday, 28 March 2016, that unit-3 of 660 megawatts (MW) of Mouda Super Thermal Power Station of NTPC has been commissioned on 28 March 2016. With this, the total installed capacity of Mouda Super Thermal Power Station has become 1,660 MW. The total installed capacity of NTPC on standalone basis has become 40,012 MW and that of NTPC group has become 46,653 MW.

Telecom stocks were in demand. Idea Cellular (up 1.61%), MTNL (up 0.59%) and Bharti Airtel (up 1.36%) edged higher. Reliance Communications (down 1.5%) and Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra) (down 0.76%) declined.

Key indices dropped for the second day in a row. The Sensex has lost 436.10 points or 1.72% in two trading sessions from its close of 25,337.56 on 23 March 2016. The Sensex has risen 1,903.46 points or 8.27% in this month so far (till 29 March 2016). The Sensex has fallen 1,213.08 points or 4.64% in calendar year 2016 so far (till 29 March 2016). From a 52-week low of 22,494.61 hit on 29 February 2016, the Sensex has risen 2,408.85 points or 10.7%. The Sensex is off 4,192.15 points or 14.4% from a 52-week high of 29,094.61 hit on 15 April 2015. The Sensex is off 5,118.28 points or 17.04% from a record high of 30,024.74 hit on 4 March 2015.

ENTRY STRATEGY lllllllll

Your swing trading entry strategy is the most important part of the trade. This is the one time when all of your trading capital is at risk. Once the stock goes in your favor you can then relax, manage your stops, and await a graceful exit.

This page explains the basic price pattern that is used to enter stocks. Once you become familiar with it, you can try out more advanced strategies based on the specific pattern that you are trading. More on that in the chart patterns section.

With your entry strategy, the first thing that you want be able to do is identify swing points. What's a swing point you ask? This is a pattern that consists of three candles. For entries on long positions, you look for a swing point low. For entries on short positions you look for a swing point high.

Swing Points

For a swing point low, the first candle makes a low, the second candle makes a lower low, and the third candle makes a higher low. This third candle tells us that the sellers have gotten weak and the stock will likely reverse.

For a swing point high, the first candle makes a high, the second candle makes a higher high, and the third candle makes a lower high. This third candle tells us that the buyers have gotten weak and the stock will likely reverse.

Here are pictures of the candles to help you better understand swing points:

For our long entry strategy, we are trying to find stocks that have pulled back into the Traders Action Zone that have made a swing point low.

Like this:

You can see on the chart above that this stock is in a nice uptrend with the 10 SMA above the 30 EMA. The stock has pulled back into the TAZ and made a nice swing point low (highlighted).

See how the pattern consists of a low, lower low, then a higher low? Great! Our entry strategy would be to enter this stock on the day of the third candle.

Now lets look at a stock on the short side. We are looking for a stock in a nice downtrend with the 10 SMA below the 30 EMA. Then we wait for a rally into the TAZ that forms a swing point high.

Like this:

See how the pattern consists of a high, higher high, then a lower high? We would look for an entry on the third candle.

Consecutive Price Patterns

Ok, now check this out. Look back up at the first chart where the stock pulls back into the TAZ. You will notice that the pullback consists of three consecutive down days with lower highs and lower lows.

That is what you want to look for in a pullback. You can buy the stock the first time it trades above the previous candles high. This will complete the swing point low.

On the second chart, you will see that the stock has three consecutive up days with higher highs and higher lows. The fourth candles still makes a higher high and a higher low. The fifth candle finally makes a lower high and a lower low - completing the swing point.

Pullbacks do not have to consist of exactly 3 consecutive up days (for short trades) or down days (for long trades.) Sometimes you will run your scans and find stocks that have more than that.

When you are looking for swing points to develop, you always want to look to the left of the chart to see if the stock is at a support or resistance area on the chart. That will improve the reliability of this entry strategy.

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The standard entry is described here in detail but it mainly consists of three candles:

A swing point high (some traders call it a "pivot" high) consists of a high, a higher high, and then a lower high.

A swing point low (or a "pivot" low) consists of a low, a lower low, and then a higher low.

This is much easier to understand by looking at a chart:

On the left side of the chart, you can see a swing point high. We would look to short this stock on the day of the third candle because it made a lower high and traded below the previous days low.

In the middle of the chart, you can see a swing point low. We would look to buy this stock on the day of the third candle because it made a higher low and traded above the previous days high.

It is important to understand that not all swing points will result in a reversal. But many do. There are many more swing points on this chart. Can you find them?

Ok, now let's look at an aggressive entry.

The Aggressive Entry

An aggressive entry is an entry in which you buy or short a stock before it makes a swing point low or a swing point high. You are buying (or shorting) in anticipation of a swing point low or a swing point high developing.

Let's look at a chart:

This is the same chart with another swing point low. Here you can see a low (1), a lower low (2) and then a higher low (3). Typically we would buy on the third candle (the higher low). But look at the second candle. It is a bullish engulfing candle and it traded over the previous days high.

In this scenario, an aggressive entry would be to buy this stock on the second candle (2) in anticipationof a swing point low developing.

Here is another example of an aggressive entry on the long side:

This stock has not made a swing point low yet. But, it does show a piercing candlestick pattern. So, you might want to buy this stock on the second candle in anticipation of a swing point low developing.

Which Entry Strategy is Better?

One isn't really better than the other. It just boils down to risk versus reward. A standard entry is less risky because the stock has moved in your desired direction. But, often times, waiting for swing point to develop messes up your risk to reward because your stop is further away.

An aggressive entry is usually riskier because the stock hasn't reversed yet. But, your risk to reward is better because your stop is usually closer. Look at the chart above. For all I know, this stock could jump 10% on the next trading day! Then I probably wouldn't be able to trade this stock because my stop would have to be so far away.

I usually opt for the aggressive entry if I can find a pattern suggesting a reversal on the hourly or 15 minute chart. And, if there is a hammer candlestick pattern, then I will buy on the day of the hammer instead of waiting to see if there is a higher low on the following day.

Why Are Identifying Swing Points Important?

They are important because they tell you when the balance of power has shifted when you are shorting rallies or buying pull backs. Think about it...

• Day One: A stock makes a high
• Day Two: A stock makes a higher high
• Day Three: A stock makes a higher high
• Day Four: A stock makes a higher high
• Day Five: A stock makes a lower high

[Note: It doesn't have to be exactly 5 days.]

What happened on the fifth day? The bulls were able to push the stock to new highs on day one through four but on the fifth day they failed to do this. This means that the buyers are getting weak and the balance of power is shifting (from buyers to sellers).

The above scenario formed a swing point high. The same thing happens when a stock forms a swing point low.

• Day One: A stock makes a low
• Day Two: A stock makes a lower low
• Day Three: A stock makes a lower low
• Day Four: A stock makes a lower low
• Day Five: A stock makes a higher low

What happened on day five? The bears were able to push the stock to new lows on day one through four but on the fifth day they failed to do this. The balance of power has shifted from sellers to buyers and a swing point low has developed.

I hope all of this isn't too confusing. Just remember this: swing trading is a game - nothing more, nothing less. Your opponents are other swing traders! Everyone is trying to get into a stock before the other traders do.

Get in too early and you will lose. Get in too late and you will lose.

It's challenging but this is what makes the game so fun to play!

THE END SESSION ( 28 / 03 )

Sensex, Nifty hit lowest closing level in more than a week

Fears of an early interest-rate increase in the United States pulled Indian stocks lower, with the barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, falling below the psychologically important 25,000 mark. The Sensex fell 371.16 points or 1.46% to settle at 24,966.40. The losses for the Sensex were higher in percentage terms than those for the 50-unit Nifty 50 index. The Nifty fell 101.40 points or 1.31% to settle at 7,615.10. The Sensex and the Nifty, both, hit their lowest closing level in more than a week. Stocks of metal and mining firms, public sector banks and index heavyweight HDFC led losses for the two key benchmark indices. All the nineteen sectoral indices on BSE declined.

The Sensex snapped a four-day winning streak and the Nifty snapped six-day winning streak.

In overseas stock markets, Asian stocks fell as recent remarks from US Federal Reserve policy makers reignited expectations for an early interest-rate increase in the United States. European markets were closed for the Easter Monday holiday. US stocks ended little-changed during the previous trading session on Thursday, 24 March 2016, after weaker-than-expected economic data. Meanwhile, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said the relatively minor downgrades to the Fed's economic outlook suggest the next rate hike 'may not be far off provided that the economy evolves as expected'. On Friday, 25 March 2016, data showed that the US economy grew at a 1.4% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the fourth quarter, higher than a previous estimate for 1% growth.

ONGC declined in volatile trade after the company's board of directors approved the field development plan (FDP) for the development of fields falling under cluster 2 of deep water NELP block KG-DWN-98-2 with estimated capital expenditure of a staggering $5076.37 million (Rs 34012 crore). NTPC edged higher after the company announced that the unit-4 of 195 megawatts (MW) of Muzaffarpur Thermal Power Station of Kanti Bijlee Utpadan Nigam, a subsidiary company of NTPC has been commissioned on 24 March 2016.

The Sensex lost 371.16 points or 1.46% to settle at 24,966.40, its lowest closing level since 18 March 2016. The index fell 442.07 points, or 1.74% at the day's low of 24,895.49. The index rose 95.38 points, or 0.38% at the day's high of 25,432.94.

The Nifty fell 101.40 points or 1.31% to settle at 7,615.10, its lowest closing level since 18 March 2016. The index fell 128.80 points, or 1.67% at the day's low of 7,587.70. The index rose 32.90 points or 0.43% at the day's high of 7,749.40.

The BSE Mid-Cap index shed 1.36%. The decline in this index was lower than the Sensex's decline in percentage terms. The BSE Small-Cap index lost 1.65%. The decline in this index was higher than the Sensex's decline in percentage terms.
The broad market depicted weakness. There were more than two losers against every gainer on BSE. 1,942 shares fell and 743 shares rose. A total of 167 shares were unchanged.

Among the sectoral indices on BSE, the S&P BSE Finance index (down 1.76%), the BSE Healthcare index (down 1.95%), the BSE Telecom index (down 2.21%), the BSE Bankex index (down 1.92%), the BSE Capital Goods index (down 2.08%), the BSE Metal index (down 3.92%) and the BSE Realty index (down 4.35%) underperformed the Sensex. The S&P BSE Auto index (down 1.45%), the BSE Consumer Discretionary Goods & Services index (down 1.19%) and the BSE FMCG index (down 0.82%) outperformed the Sensex.

Bank stocks witnessed selling pressure. Among public sector banks, Canara Bank (down 4.47%), State Bank of India (down 4.24%), Corporation Bank (down 3.29%), Bank of India (down 3.36%), IDBI Bank (down 3.6%), Punjab National Bank (down 2.95%), Bank of Baroda (down 3.37%) and Union Bank of India (down 2.77%) edged lower.

Among private sector banks, ICICI Bank (down 3.86%), Axis Bank (down 3.37%), IndusInd Bank (down 0.73%), Yes Bank (down 0.67%) and HDFC Bank (down 0.12%) declined. Kotak Mahindra Bank (up 1.97%) edged higher.

Metal shares edged lower. Vedanta (down 9.04%), Hindalco Industries (down 8.66%), Steel Authority of India (down 5.97%), Tata Steel (down 5.23%), NMDC (down 3.44%), Jindal Steel & Power (down 3.14%), Hindustan Copper (down 2.95%), National Aluminium Company (down 2.98%), JSW Steel (down 1.61%) and Hindustan Zinc (down 1.03%) edged lower.

High Grade Copper for May 2016 delivery was currently unchanged at $2.228 per pound on the COMEX.

Index heavyweight and housing finance major HDFC fell 1.92% at Rs 1,140.80. The stock hit a high of Rs 1,167.45 and a low of Rs 1,139 in intraday trade.

Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) fell 0.86% at Rs 1,020.50. The stock hit a high of Rs 1,031.95 and a low of Rs 1,015.50 in intraday trade.

Index heavyweight and cigarette major ITC lost 0.66% at Rs 322.25. The stock hit a high of Rs 329 and a low of Rs 320.65 in intraday trade.

State-run ONGC fell 0.23% at Rs 214.05. The company announced during trading hours today, 28 March 2016, that its board approved the field development plan (FDP) for the development of fields falling under cluster 2 of deep water NELP block KG-DWN-98-2. The development would involve a capital expenditure of a staggering $5076.37 million (Rs 34012 crore). The total oil production from the fields envisaged is 23.526 million tonnes with the first oil production expected by March 2020. The total gas production estimated is 50.706 billion cubic meters with the first gas output expected by June 2019. The project is expected to complete by June 2020.

Bharat Heavy Electricals (Bhel) lost 2.92% at Rs 113.15. The company announced during market hours today, 28 March 2016, that it has commissioned a 40 megawatts (MW) second hydro electric generating unit of Teesta Low Dam Hydro Electric Project (HEP) Stage-IV in West Bengal. Teesta HEP is being set up by National Hydroelectric Power Corporation (NHPC) on the River Teesta. The remaining two units of the project are also in advanced stages of execution, Bhel said.

Separately, Bhel announced on Friday, 25 March 2016, that it has commissioned 600 MW coal-based thermal power plant in Telangana. Bhel said that the power plant was commissioned at the upcoming 1,200 megawatts (MW) Singareni Thermal Power Project located in Adilabad district in Telangana. The second unit of Singareni Thermal Power Project is also in an advanced stage of construction and is expected to be commissioned shortly. The project is being developed by Singareni Collieries Company (SCCL), a coal mining company.

NTPC rose 1.06% at Rs 128.70 after the company announced on Friday, 25 March 2016, that the unit-4 of 195 megawatts (MW) of Muzaffarpur Thermal Power Station of Kanti Bijlee Utpadan Nigam, a subsidiary company of NTPC has been commissioned on 24 March 2016. With this, the total installed capacity NTPC group has become 45,993 MW.

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries lost 4.2% at Rs 811.05. The stock hit a high of Rs 850 and a low of Rs 805.60 in intraday trade.

Dr Reddy's Laboratories lost 0.38% at Rs 3,035.55. The company and XenoPort, Inc announced entering into a license agreement for the development and commercialization of the latter's clinical-stage oral new chemical entity XP23829. Dr Reddy's plans to develop XP23829 as a potential treatment for moderate-to-severe chronic plaque psoriasis and may potentially develop XP23829 for relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis (MS). Under the terms of the agreement, Dr Reddy's will receive exclusive US rights to develop and commercialize XP23829 for all indications. In exchange for these rights, XenoPort will receive a $47.5 million up-front payment and an additional $2.5 million for transfer of certain clinical trial materials to Dr Reddy's. XenoPort will also be eligible to receive up to $190 million upon the achievement by Dr Reddy's of certain regulatory milestones, which could be achieved over a period of several years. In addition, XenoPort will be eligible to receive up to $250 million upon the achievement of commercial milestones, and up to mid-teens royalty payments based on potential net sales of XP23829 in the United States, Dr Reddy's said in a statement.

XP23829 is an investigational drug discovered by XenoPort. In September 2015, XenoPort announced results of a Phase 2 clinical trial of XP23829 as a potential treatment for moderate-to-severe chronic plaque-type psoriasis. Psoriasis is a chronic, systemic, inflammatory disease that manifests in the skin and/or joints.
Tata Motors declined 3.63% at Rs 363.25. The company after market hours on Wednesday, 23 March 2016, announced that workmen at its Sanand plant in Gujarat have called off the strike and resumed duty from 23 March 2016 and normalcy has been restored. Sanand is one of company's six plants in India and manufactures Nano and new hatchback car Tiago.

The Sensex snapped four-day winning streak. The barometer index had risen 660.19 points or 2.67% in the preceding four trading sessions to settle at 25,337.56 on Wednesday, 23 March 2016, from its close of 24,677.37 on 17 March 2016. The stock market was closed on 24 and 25 March 2016 for holidays. The Sensex has risen 1,964.40 points or 8.54% in this month so far (till 28 March 2016). The Sensex has fallen 1,151.14 points or 4.4% in calendar year 2016 so far (till 28 March 2016). From a 52-week low of 22,494.61 hit on 29 February 2016, the Sensex has risen 2,471.79 points or 10.98%. The Sensex is off 4,128.21 points or 14.18% from a 52-week high of 29,094.61 hit on 15 April 2015. The Sensex is off 5,058.34 points or 16.84% from a record high of 30,024.74 hit on 4 March 2015.

HOW TO USE VOLUME BREAKOUT ???

WHAT IS VOLUME BREAKOUT?

W.D.Gann,a great forecaster of the stock market, has said that there are three parameters that govern the price movements,namely PRICE,VOLUME AND TIME(SPACE). There exists a particular relation and behaviour pattern between these three parameters. Obviously the price movements are the results of the supply and demand, but the time and volume parameters are very important background players who affect the price movements. I personally feel that price movements are the effects of movements in volume and time frame. So the real reason behind any price movement is the volume and time.

Volume breakout is a term used in technical analysis to indicate the unusual rise in volume( in the above sheet i have taken the volume of 2.5 times the average as the unusual). It has been revealed that the first thing that happens before any pricing action is the change in volume.

,so as a rule the jerk in price is followed by jerk in the volume. The above sheet taps the scrips in the market in which there is unusual volume in positive direction.(Means the volume has taken the price of the security up,indicating that the volume is in the interest of buying and not selling).

WHAT IS LIVE VOLUME BREAKOUT?

Mostly those who follow the eod(end of day data) for technical analysis come to know about the volume breakout after the closing of the market, and next day when they try to enter into the stock it has already ran up by considerable amount, to avoid such situation,my page tracks the securities volume during the live market and informs you as soon as the volume crosses the threshold value in positive direction, so i call it as the LIVE VOLUME BREAKOUT.

ENTRY AND EXIT RULES:

Rules for entry:

1. The stock has appeared in the live volume breakout sheet.

2.  The eod chart for the scrip shows the rising RSI.

3. The eod chart for the scrip shows rising slow stochastic

4. The main trend of the market is positive ( as obtained from nifty chart) i.e close above 20day ema.(The volume breakout doesn't works when main market trend is negative).

Rules for exit:

1. Target achieved.

2. Stoploss triggered

3. Inactivity exit i.e if no price movement seen even after 12 trading days.

My own trading system with volume breakout:

1. Trading capital allocation

I have allocated a total of 80,000 rs/- for volume breakout, and i invest rs 8000/- in one scrip at a time. Thus at a time i have maximum of 10 positions in different scrips.(everybody should have such plan depending upon his own capital)

2. Entry decision

I prefer to enter into the scrip as soon as it appears on the sheet (with a quantity 4 times that of calculated for rs 8000, means if a scrip appears into the breakout page i buy in a quantity equal to rs 32000/-) and on 3:15 i square off the ¾ th quantity and keep the quantity equivalent of rs 8000 . The intraday gain brings down my average entry price. Rarely the price falls from the entry price in that case my entry price goes up, but i strictly square off the ¾ th quantity. Further i prefer to enter on the days when nifty is in upswing and avoid the entry on the days when nifty is closing near the days low.(because mostly when nifty closes near the low of the day, there are few chances of market zooming next day.) further as stated above i check the eod chart for the scrip before making the entry decision.

3. Free trade stoploss:

On next day of entering the scrip, i prefer to not to put the stop loss, on the third day i put the stop loss equal to ( entry price + brokerage), i call this as the FREE TRADE STOPLOSS. The logic behind is that even from the third day your stop loss is hit you don't loose a single rupee from your capital. This is the key to capital preservation.

In case the stock has not moved in my favor on next day i prefer to apply the yesterday's low as the stop loss or the stop loss indicated in the sheet. I prefer the manual exit at the time of market closing rather than applying the stop loss because sometime in high volatility we get stop loss hit unnecessarily.

4. Inactivity exit:

When i see that the stock is not moving towards the target even on the 12 trading day, i prefer to exit from the stock, and book the profit or loss whatsoever it may be. This opens to doors to trade in other better moving scrips rather than getting stuck in inactive scrips. But at least allow the 12 trading days to move it.

5. Booking profit( i book shares and not the cash)

One of my friend always use to repent on the fact that he had so and so stock at so and so price but booked profit and it is zooming now. To avoid this i use a unique technique to not to book profit in terms of shares and not the cash. Let me explain this with example :

suppose i bought a scrip XYZ at rs 50 a qty of 160 shares(50 *160=8000) and my target price is 56. now when the scrip reaches the target i sell only 144 ( 56*144 =8064) and my profit is not in terms of money but my profit is 16 shares which i call free shares.

Now i forget about these shares i have earned, and my profit is also active now which also goes on multiplying. Further i need not to fear about this holding because my investment in these shares is 0 rs.

Thus as the time passes your portfolio goes on accumulating such free shares and it is active profit which goes on rising as well as gets dividend,splits ect.

6. Stick to your laws even in unfavorable situations:

The key to success of any system lies is following it strictly and having faith in it even when the system is going against, because in most cases when few stoplosses are hit the follower looses confiednce and starts modifying the system as a point from where the system starts giving good output. I have personally backtested the system and found good results, you can also test the sysem with paper trade and then start actual trading with 

SOURCES : NF